# [EVDL] Aptera: Another car for Jay Lennos collection ..



## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

That much?
Are you kidding?
30,000 is avery moderatly priced car today!

And it is NOT a frame with fiberglass around it.

It is a formula one stregth carraige using formula one principles that 
far exceed normal cars in crash strength - beats even hummers on 
sideimpact!

God man! Get you facts straight!
Are you an ICE car palnt or something!

Have you priced a hummer or cadillac lately?




> Michaela Merz wrote:
> >
> > A German magazine just reported, that the Aptera is going to cost about
> > US$ 30,000 - in other words *way* to much to make an impact.
> ...


----------



## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

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----------



## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

I saw another report about it where they talk about how it's noisy due to
its belt-drive and there is no sound insulation to speak of. I'm waiting to
hear some end-user reports after they start building these, maybe some
youtube videos without a techno soundtrack to cover the edits. Given how
much effort they've tried to put into the creature comforts, I would expect
this thing to be dead quiet to justify the pricetag.

-----Original Message-----
There are many people that can afford this car (me not being one of them).
My friend bought a new Honda Pilot for his wife. That car cost $30k & she
spends $5k a year on fuel. The car could pay for itself in gas saving alone
in less then 10 years. As far as safety goes millions of people jump on
motorcycles everyday. Sometimes it's not about crash worthiness it's about
agility & being able to avoid accidents.



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## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

>I saw another report about it where they talk about how it's noisy due to
> its belt-drive and there is no sound insulation to speak of.

People will complain about anything. The driveline is likely quieter than 
almost anything on the road, and I'd bet sound insulation makes it into 
production soon. In the motorcycling community belt drive is heralded as a 
great weight- and noise-limiting system, but here it's too noisy. Give me a 
break. I don't care if it sings off-key disco tunes as long as the car does 
everything else as well as projected, and I *hate* disco ;^)

Lon 

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## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

I ordered one some time back, I'm curious to see the finished product 
but I know it sure looks better than a Sparrow/NMg at $34,500!

mark




> Loni wrote:
> 
> >> I saw another report about it where they talk about how it's noisy
> >> due to
> ...


----------



## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

> Mark Dutko wrote:
> > I ordered one some time back, I'm curious to see the finished product
> > but I know it sure looks better than a Sparrow/NMg at $34,500!
> >
> ...


----------



## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

> tango at 108,000$
>


Ouch!


Kudos for the Aptera. Nice looking and much cheaper. : )




> Dan Frederiksen wrote:
> 
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## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

I would buy one IF I had not already started my bradley 2 years ago and now I need the batteries and a few wires to get on the road . not cherried out but on the road in a decent car .
----- Original Message ----- 
From: Michaela Merz<mailto:[email protected]> 
To: [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]> 
Sent: Friday, December 28, 2007 1:02 AM
Subject: [EVDL] Aptera: Another car for Jay Lennos collection ..



A German magazine just reported, that the Aptera is going to cost about
US$ 30,000 - in other words *way* to much to make an impact.

Who in his or her right mind would want to spend that much money for a toy
car? I mean - don't get me wrong. It looks cool, and it may have
impressive features. But it's basically a frame with some fiberglass
wrapped around. I wouldn't want to be in a crash with this thing.

Well, anyway - I just wanted to let you know that, as reported by the
German magazine 'Der Spiegel', it is supposed to be available in late
2008.

mm.




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## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

> GWMobile wrote:
> > That much?
> > Are you kidding?
> > 30,000 is avery moderatly priced car today!
> ...


----------



## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

Is it fair to compare the price of a new car with what one can get a
used one for?

> can buy a low mileage used Smart in FL for $18K, and it is in all
> probability a safer vehicle, and with the $13K I save over buying an
> Aptera I can buy a hell of a lot of fuel.
>
> Let's get our facts straight indeed. The Aptera looks to be a fun
> vehicle that can be used by a small percentage of Americans with either
> no family or as a second vehicle for those with an above median income.
> It's not a toy as one stated, but it's no Yaris either.
>
> I'm very new here but is accusing a list member of being a plant, even
> in jest, something condoned here? On most lists I subscribe to it is
> verboten.
>
> John Thornton
>
>
> _______________________________________________
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-- 
http://www.austinev.org/evalbum/1059
http://stormselectric.blogspot.com/
Storm

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## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

Since potential buyers of vehicles (especially second vehicles) do this 
all the time the answer is obviously yes.
If it places you more at ease you can stick with the comparison I made 
of the Aptera to the Yaris.
I believe someone else did the same.

John Thornton





> storm connors wrote:
> > Is it fair to compare the price of a new car with what one can get a
> > used one for?
> >
> ...


----------



## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

Anyone who honestly did an economic comparison would never buy a new
car. People buy new cars because they want them. Some sort of economic
justification is made after the decision. When used Apteras are
readily available, then we could discuss whether a used Aptera is a
better buy than a used Think.



> John Thornton <[email protected]> wrote:
> > Since potential buyers of vehicles (especially second vehicles) do this
> > all the time the answer is obviously yes.
> > If it places you more at ease you can stick with the comparison I made
> ...


----------



## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

> On 28 Dec 2007 at 14:40, John Thornton wrote:
> 
> > I can buy a low mileage used Smart in FL for
> > $18K, and it is in all probability a safer vehicle, and with the $13K I save
> ...


----------



## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

> EVDL Administrator wrote:
> > On 28 Dec 2007 at 14:40, John Thornton wrote:
> >
> >
> ...


----------



## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

> John wrote:
> > ... and never spend $28K on fuel in my entire life.
> 
> Depends when you lived. No doubt in my mind that within a
> ...


----------



## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

> Anyone who honestly did an economic comparison would never buy a new
> car. People buy new cars because they want them.

I lot of cars nowadays are leased or financed. It may sound weird, but for
a lot of people, a new car is the only way to get a decent set of wheels
through ultra 'cheap' financing or leasing.

Talking about crash worthiness: One has to stick to physics. After all
that's what a lot of people here consider to be paramount. There is simply
no way a small, light vehicle like the Aptera would be comparable to a
mid-size or larger car or truck. A crash, even at moderate speeds, with a
2000 pound or heavier vehicle would most likely become a very unpleasant
event for the people inside the Aptera.

mm.


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## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

> Depends when you lived. No doubt in my mind that within a
> handful years gas will hit $10/gal and never get below that again
> so if you want to do long-term projection.

Without sliding into some political discussions: Should gas hit 10
Dollars/Gallon in todays Dollars within the next few years, we will have
*far* bigger concerns than comparing EVs to ICEs. Anything > 6
Bucks/Gallon will most likely trigger a very bad global economy crisis and
maybe even *serious* armed conflict. It will most probably not happen very
soon.

mm.


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## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

In other words, the world has to pass through WWIII before joe sixpack buys an EV?

----- Original Message ----
Should gas hit 10 Dollars/Gallon in todays Dollars within the next few years, we will
have
*far* bigger concerns than comparing EVs to ICEs.



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## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

Ugggh.
Sorry I just cannot get into THREE wheeled cars at any price.
I just want to know what the fuel penalty is for adding another wheel.

JeffH in TX

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## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

> In other words, the world has to pass through WWIII before joe sixpack
> buys an EV?

That wasn't the point. I only shared my thoughts in regard to 10
US$/Gallon of gas within the next few years. Joe Sixpack represents about
70% of the population. It doesn't matter if a few celebrities, bankers or
dot.com millionaires are showing off in their EVs. Joe Sixpack will buy an
Electric Vehicle if he feels it makes sense. Be it that the idea is
implanted through advertising, if he gets good financing or a good price.

Why is it in this country, that a very low percentage of people are having
solar panels on their roof? Compared to, say, Germany? Because its
expensive and there are no feasible advantages of doing so. My ranch is
close to a rice dryer. Those folks need *huge* amounts of energy to
actually de-hull and dry the rice. At the same time, they are discarding
tons and tons of all the husks. I am happy, because my cows like that
stuff and I can get as much as I want for free. With just a little money,
they would be able to build a gasifier to use those husks to produce up to
80% of the energy they now need to buy.

Same with a lot of other agricultural waste and/or bio gas. I would be
able to generate all the energy I need with just about 3 acres of Grain
Sorghum (Milo). I have the machines and the land to grow plenty of milo,
all I need are two batch digester, gas cleaners, piping and a turbine to
produce electricity. If a system would be available, it would cost about
US$ 40,000 - that's about 266666 Kw/h's with current rates. I am currently
using about 1000 Kw/h a month, so that's 26 years amortization - if I
don't calculate my work of growing the milo or feeding/cleaning the
digesters, doing the maintenance etc. Even if the price per Kw/h doubles,
it still 13 years down the road. Why should I do it? It just doesn't make
(economical) sense. So - I wait. Maybe solar gets more effective, maybe
digester systems will become available and affordable, maybe I win the
lottery. Now - if the government would give me, say, 1/2 the money
(without having to fill out 42 pages of documentation), it would start to
become more interesting. And no - tax brakes or -credits won't cut it.
Most of the energy I use is a business expense anyway.

Same with EVs. I can go down to my local dealer and buy an F-250 as a
business expense. Or I can get a decent 1/2 ton truck for about 14,000
USD. 0 percent financing. As long as Joe Sixpack is not getting the same
advantages and benefits, he's simply not going to buy an EV.

People need to get real. Nobody is interested in a change of paradigm.
Global warming, pollution, who cares? F** the polar bears. Let's melt
those darn icecaps so that are finally able to drill for more oil. All the
interests are focussed on business as usual. Funny, but Newton's first law
of motion is perfectly adaptable: "An object at rest tends to stay at rest
and an object in motion tends to stay in motion with the same speed and in
the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force" . Who is
going to be the 'unbalanced force' acting upon the object in motion?

We? With our lead sleds? Joe Sixpack and his kin? Tesla? Aptera? Al Gore?
Politicians? Business leaders? Sorry, I go with what the the 19th century
Cree indians are supposed to have said:

Only when the last tree has died and
The last river has been poisoned and
The last fish has been caught,
Will we realize that
We cannot eat money"

mm.


>
> ----- Original Message ----
> Should gas hit 10 Dollars/Gallon in todays Dollars within the next few
> years, we will
> have
> *far* bigger concerns than comparing EVs to ICEs.
>
>
>
>
>


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## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

Howdy Jeff:

It's much more likely that Aptera decided not to do a 4 wheel setup,
because it would then be considered to be a car - with all federal
regulations (crash testing, you name it) applying. 3 wheeled vehicles are
considered to be motor cycles. Just my interpretation of why they did what
they did.

Michaela



> Ugggh.
> Sorry I just cannot get into THREE wheeled cars at any price.
> I just want to know what the fuel penalty is for adding another wheel.
>
> JeffH in TX
>
>
>


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## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

You everyone seems to miss one important point.
But I can understand it because it involves stratigic thinking and a little selflessness.

The more you have options to fossil fuels, the more you control thier pricing.

Getting EV's or high mileage vehicles can help with that.

But I agree that humanity is too short sighted and to careless to look ahead...
until they hurt and fear takes over.

Then you may find SUV's or non-ev's taxed heavly or limited by regulations.

I think it would take a $6-$10/g experience to trigger such an outcome.
Let hope the pain at $6 is enough to modivate people. And stop asking how many wheels it has, start asking what mileage it gets..









Arak Leatham - Web and Desktop Systems Developer
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## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

> I can buy a low mileage used Smart in FL for> $18K, and it is in all prob=
ability a safer vehicle, and with the $13K I save> over buying an Aptera I =
can buy a hell of a lot of fuel. Hmmm, I can buy a dead Geo Metro and have =
a wondeful full EV/AC with Liion installed for under 12k. It wouldn't be wo=
rth anything by blue-book but I would't care.
=

I would not worry about reliablity either. It's better than most new cars a=
lready.
=

I think the EV retrofit is going to be the big thing as gas goes up and GM =
etc declines to make our lives any better.



=





Arak Leatham - Web and Desktop Systems Developer> From: [email protected]> To=
: [email protected]> Date: Fri, 28 Dec 2007 17:59:06 -0500> Subject: Re: [E=
VDL] Aptera: Another car for Jay Lennos collection ..> > On 28 Dec 2007 at =


> 14:40, John Thornton wrote:> > > I can buy a low mileage used Smart in FL f=
> or> > $18K, and it is in all probability a safer vehicle, and with the $13K=
> I save> > over buying an Aptera I can buy a hell of a lot of fuel.> > True=
> . This will be the case for some time to come, at least until fuel gets > a=
> ...


----------



## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

Simply a matter of demand and supply.
There is no way that very soon the world oil production
will change and it is most likely going to decrease by
about 3% per year when it starts to change.
Demand will continue to soar until we have learned to
deal with fuel shortages by using it efficiently.
It is going to hurt a lot of people, especially the
lower income people that cannot afford a new fuel efficient
car anyway, but need wheels to get to work every day.
In that respect, I think "Project Forkenswift" is a very
good approach that allows shade tree mechanics around
the country to bring affordable cars on the road based on
second hand stuff and give people wheels without requiring
them to buy gasoline.
In my mind there is no question *if* a gallon of gas is
going to go over 10 dollars. It is only a question *when*,
whether it is close after 2010 (which will hurt terribly
because nobody is ready) or closer to 2015. It won't be
after 2015 because the gap between demand and supply will
be too big to last more than 7 years before such a small
increase.
Remember that *this year* the crude price _doubled_.
Raw oil price in a gallon is now about $2 with crude
around $100 a barrel.
At current rate of change, crude will hit $200 by end 2008
and $400 per barrel end 2009. This would mean about $8 in
raw material cost in a gallon of gas, so at the pump it will
sell at $10 end 2009. See my point?

I hope we get a little more time to begin with constructing an
infrastructure (I mean: a fleet of EVs) to counter the every
smaller oil supply, because reducing consuption is the only
thing that will drive prices back down and EVs are the only
solution for individual transportation that I know to be
significantly more efficient than todays cars.

Unless we all start using public transportation....

Cor van de Water
Systems Architect
Proxim Wireless Corporation http://www.proxim.com
Email: [email protected] Private: http://www.cvandewater.com
Skype: cor_van_de_water IM: [email protected]
Tel: +1 408 542 5225 VoIP: +31 20 3987567 FWD# 25925
Fax: +1 408 731 3675 eFAX: +31-87-784-1130
Second Life: www.secondlife.com/?u=3b42cb3f4ae249319edb487991c30acb

-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Michaela Merz
Sent: Friday, December 28, 2007 5:23 PM
To: Electric Vehicle Discussion List
Subject: Re: [EVDL] Aptera: Another car for Jay Lennos collection ..


> Depends when you lived. No doubt in my mind that within a handful 
> years gas will hit $10/gal and never get below that again so if you 
> want to do long-term projection.

Without sliding into some political discussions: Should gas hit 10 Dollars/Gallon in todays Dollars within the next few years, we will have
*far* bigger concerns than comparing EVs to ICEs. Anything > 6 Bucks/Gallon will most likely trigger a very bad global economy crisis and maybe even *serious* armed conflict. It will most probably not happen very soon.

mm.


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## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

Simply a matter of demand and supply.
There is no way that very soon the world oil production
will change and it is most likely going to decrease by
about 3% per year when it starts to change.
Demand will continue to soar until we have learned to
deal with fuel shortages by using it efficiently.
It is going to hurt a lot of people, especially the
lower income people that cannot afford a new fuel efficient
car anyway, but need wheels to get to work every day.
In that respect, I think "Project Forkenswift" is a very
good approach that allows shade tree mechanics around
the country to bring affordable cars on the road based on
second hand stuff and give people wheels without requiring
them to buy gasoline.
In my mind there is no question *if* a gallon of gas is
going to go over 10 dollars. It is only a question *when*,
whether it is close after 2010 (which will hurt terribly
because nobody is ready) or closer to 2015. It won't be
after 2015 because the gap between demand and supply will
be too big to last more than 7 years before such a small
increase.
Remember that *this year* the crude price _doubled_.
Raw oil price in a gallon is now about $2 with crude
around $100 a barrel.
At current rate of change, crude will hit $200 by end 2008
and $400 per barrel end 2009. This would mean about $8 in
raw material cost in a gallon of gas, so at the pump it will
sell at $10 end 2009. See my point?

I hope we get a little more time to begin with constructing an
infrastructure (I mean: a fleet of EVs) to counter the every
smaller oil supply, because reducing consuption is the only
thing that will drive prices back down and EVs are the only
solution for individual transportation that I know to be
significantly more efficient than todays cars.

Unless we all start using public transportation....

Cor van de Water
Systems Architect
Proxim Wireless Corporation http://www.proxim.com
Email: [email protected] Private: http://www.cvandewater.com
Skype: cor_van_de_water IM: [email protected]
Tel: +1 408 542 5225 VoIP: +31 20 3987567 FWD# 25925
Fax: +1 408 731 3675 eFAX: +31-87-784-1130
Second Life: www.secondlife.com/?u=3b42cb3f4ae249319edb487991c30acb

-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Michaela Merz
Sent: Friday, December 28, 2007 5:23 PM
To: Electric Vehicle Discussion List
Subject: Re: [EVDL] Aptera: Another car for Jay Lennos collection ..


> Depends when you lived. No doubt in my mind that within a handful 
> years gas will hit $10/gal and never get below that again so if you 
> want to do long-term projection.

Without sliding into some political discussions: Should gas hit 10 Dollars/Gallon in todays Dollars within the next few years, we will have
*far* bigger concerns than comparing EVs to ICEs. Anything > 6 Bucks/Gallon will most likely trigger a very bad global economy crisis and maybe even *serious* armed conflict. It will most probably not happen very soon.

mm.


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## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

If we all waited for used cars to be sold there would soon be no cars 
and no new cars would ever be made.

: )






> storm connors wrote:
> 
> > Anyone who honestly did an economic comparison would never buy a new
> > car.
> ...


----------



## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

Yup! Most still want that BIG car.

: )





> Deep Freeze Video wrote:
> 
> > Ugggh.
> > Sorry I just cannot get into THREE wheeled cars at any price.
> ...


----------



## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

Hummer mentality. Solar is to complex to fathom in the brain of lots 
of folks. They only think of today and not down the road. Cheap fuel 
is still here so there is no reason to do anything other than what's 
in place. Mass thinking thanks to the media and big business. Pretty 
sad thinking if I do say so myself.

: )






> Michaela Merz wrote:
> 
> >
> >
> ...


----------



## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

Be sure before you jump on that typical thinking band wagon. It is 
controlled thinking for you. Good for them that you believe that. : )




> Cor van de Water wrote:
> 
> > Simply a matter of demand and supply.
> 
> ...


----------



## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

gottdi said: "If we all waited for used cars to be sold there would soon
be no cars and no new cars would ever be made. "


You say that like that would be a bad thing ;-) 

Seriously though.
I think as much as the public has been indoctrinated into gas
powered cars as the only viable solution, they have also been force fed
the concept of model years.
While this may seem really off topic, hang with me. This fallacy
fuels(no pun intended) the ICE car industry. It is an old way of
thinking that is too wasteful to keep around. No car manufacture is bold
enough to change this on their own.

Aircraft doesn't fall under this requirement.
What year model is your computer?
These things are spec driven (or commodity driven).
I believe that a new electric vehicle company can succeed partially by
breaking this cycle. Make the car upgradeable!
Follow the concept of software license for a vin, the chassis/body is
just another part.
Standards would help this like it did in computers. ie open
communication standards for battery packs, connectors and controllers.

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## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

You are correct! If no new cars are ever built then progress STOPS. 
That is a bad thing. No EV's would ever be made and that would be a 
bad thing. Also all the old cars will eventually die beyond repair 
and then you walk. What if you work 10 to 20 miles away? Gonna ride 
your bike or walk? I doubt it. For society today it would be a bad 
thing.

You buy new computers, vacuum's, washers, dryers, and such. Some may 
need to purchase these used. If no new items like these were ever 
built again and only used were available soon they too would be gone 
and you could wash your clothes in the river. Ouch. imagine 1 billion 
people washing in the river.

Build the EV's and folks will buy them. Sure many will complain about 
prices but those folks will always complain and want something for 
free no matter what the item is they want.

Your right, car building and selling is a forced industry. So is the 
fuel industry that feeds the automobile. EV's can break that. Bio- 
Diesel has. Now look at the price of diesel. Ouch.







> Jeff Shanab wrote:
> 
> > gottdi said: "If we all waited for used cars to be sold there would
> > soon
> ...


----------



## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

> Deep Freeze Video wrote:
> > Ugggh. Sorry, I just cannot get into THREE wheeled cars at any price.
> > I just want to know what the fuel penalty is for adding another wheel.
> 
> ...


----------



## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

> If we all waited for used cars to be sold there would soon be no cars
> and no new cars would ever be made.

Planned obsolescence used to be obnoxious, but something I shrugged off as a 
fact of life in a capitalist economy. Now I see it as one of the great evils 
of our"throw-away society". We're swimming in Ziplocs, Swiffers, 
non-recyclable plastic containers and junked cars (half of which are on 
blocks "decorating" Uncle Jed's back 40), yet we measure the success of our 
economy by new car sales and new home construction. The only conclusion I 
can come to is that the human race is certifiably insane.

Which is why I support this list and the use of used cars as platforms for 
CONVERSION. I frankly don't care if 50% or more of the world's auto 
manufacturers fold. Manufacturers that surrvive to 2020 should be those who 
are forced (by lack of demand) to build cars that a) implement at least some 
version of plug-in hybrid drive (though I prefer a move toward an 
electric-drive-only standard of modular power packs that support quick 
recharge, easy servicability, and 2-minute full pack swaps, allowing for a 
"fueling" infrastructure that supports all makes and models); b) are 
serviceable outside of dealer service centers (try re-flashing a Total 
Integrated Power Module (TIPM) on a new Dodge outside thedealership); and c) 
are built to last 20 years before being 100% recycled. Of course I'm 
dreaming, but that's the only thing that keeps me from giving up and moving 
to Mars...

Lon 

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## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

I like your view however of those few that do survive to 2020 they 
will need to sell NEW and not USED. That is what I am talking about. 
I to think a car or any other appliance should last for generations 
and be a repairable item and upgradable item. But for progress to be 
made NEW items must be sold. Even if its just an upgrade. It is still 
a NEW upgrade and not used.


> Loni wrote:
> 
> >> If we all waited for used cars to be sold there would soon be no cars
> >> and no new cars would ever be made.
> ...


----------



## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

There's a lot in between black and white. We are all captured in a loop
that needs growth to sustain itself. We will find out sooner or later,
that the practiced and preached motto of 'economic growth' will have to be
replaced with something else: sustainability.

Progress will not only be reached by throw-away products or fast life
cycles. Producers will have to take resposibilty for a product even after
its useful life. Maybe, in the future, you will only get a new *whatever*
if you turn in your old *whatever* or face a stiff 'core' charge.

To turn it back into an EV topic: An electric vehicle most likely will
last far longer than its ICE brethren. So - in the future you might be
able to replace modules, batteries, even the the hull of a vehicle instead
of purchasing everything new. You could exchange your convertible hull
against a sedan or pick-up truck hull. Or your old drivetrain against
something that is more energy efficient. An EV in the future may have
several lifes which would be much more sound than to bring it to a land
fill or junkyard.

It sure would limit how many completely NEW cars would be build. But it
would spark a healthy market of add-ons, exchange parts, updates or
upgrades.

Progress (in the car market) would not be limited to huge corporations
like today, but to small or medium size companies that would be able to
build better controllers, better batteries, hulls or other parts.

mm.


though during its existance it most likely has




> You are correct! If no new cars are ever built then progress STOPS.
> That is a bad thing. No EV's would ever be made and that would be a
> bad thing. Also all the old cars will eventually die beyond repair
> and then you walk. What if you work 10 to 20 miles away? Gonna ride
> your bike or walk? I doubt it. For society today it would be a bad
> thing.
>
> You buy new computers, vacuum's, washers, dryers, and such. Some may
> need to purchase these used. If no new items like these were ever
> built again and only used were available soon they too would be gone
> and you could wash your clothes in the river. Ouch. imagine 1 billion
> people washing in the river.
>
> Build the EV's and folks will buy them. Sure many will complain about
> prices but those folks will always complain and want something for
> free no matter what the item is they want.
>
> Your right, car building and selling is a forced industry. So is the
> fuel industry that feeds the automobile. EV's can break that. Bio-
> Diesel has. Now look at the price of diesel. Ouch.
>
>
>
>
>
>


> Jeff Shanab wrote:
> >
> >> gottdi said: "If we all waited for used cars to be sold there would
> >> soon
> ...


----------



## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

Yes. : )





> Michaela Merz wrote:
> 
> >
> > There's a lot in between black and white. We are all captured in a
> ...


----------



## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

lee said

"It is possible to design a small light aerodynamic 4-wheel vehicle. In
fact, there are plenty of examples of subcompact and microcars. Try one
of these for your EV conversion. "

No thanks, I am waiting for a sunrise. 

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## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

>I like your view however of those few that do survive to 2020 they
> will need to sell NEW and not USED. That is what I am talking about.
> I to think a car or any other appliance should last for generations
> and be a repairable item and upgradable item. But for progress to be
> made NEW items must be sold. Even if its just an upgrade. It is still
> a NEW upgrade and not used.

Of course, I agree. I'm primarily considering what I would suggest for those 
considering purchase of an electric vehicle.

What I find particularly offensive in the auto industry now are those parts 
that are either engineered to a deplorably low standard or, worse, to fail 
in a timely manner (usually a week after the warranty runs out...). As for 
the future, I too would like to see sustainability as the watchword all 
companies and products are held to, but I have serious doubts that the 
general populace will ever stop saying, "Ooooooo, shiny...."

Lon


>


> Loni wrote:
> >
> >>> If we all waited for used cars to be sold there would soon be no cars
> >>> and no new cars would ever be made.
> ...


----------



## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

Down here bigger cars (those that do less than 25mpg) are dropping in price like a rock. If you drive less than 2 fuel tanks a month you are better off buying a used big car and driving it to the ground (i am doing that until I can get an ev running)

Small cars, on the other hand, have huge resale values. I bought a 2002 xantia, thas gets 25mpg, for half of what a simmilar age C3, that gets 35, costs. 

That is the first real economic response to fuel prices, I guess. 



Eduardo Kaftanski
[email protected] 

-----Original Message-----
From: "Cor van de Water" <[email protected]>
To: "Electric Vehicle Discussion List" <[email protected]>
Sent: 12/29/07 02:20
Subject: Re: [EVDL] Aptera: Another car for Jay Lennos collection ..

Simply a matter of demand and supply.
There is no way that very soon the world oil production
will change and it is most likely going to decrease by
about 3% per year when it starts to change.
Demand will continue to soar until we have learned to
deal with fuel shortages by using it efficiently.
It is going to hurt a lot of people, especially the
lower income people that cannot afford a new fuel efficient
car anyway, but need wheels to get to work every day.
In that respect, I think "Project Forkenswift" is a very
good approach that allows shade tree mechanics around
the country to bring affordable cars on the road based on
second hand stuff and give people wheels without requiring
them to buy gasoline.
In my mind there is no question *if* a gallon of gas is
going to go over 10 dollars. It is only a question *when*,
whether it is close after 2010 (which will hurt terribly
because nobody is ready) or closer to 2015. It won't be
after 2015 because the gap between demand and supply will
be too big to last more than 7 years before such a small
increase.
Remember that *this year* the crude price _doubled_.
Raw oil price in a gallon is now about $2 with crude
around $100 a barrel.
At current rate of change, crude will hit $200 by end 2008
and $400 per barrel end 2009. This would mean about $8 in
raw material cost in a gallon of gas, so at the pump it will
sell at $10 end 2009. See my point?

I hope we get a little more time to begin with constructing an
infrastructure (I mean: a fleet of EVs) to counter the every
smaller oil supply, because reducing consuption is the only
thing that will drive prices back down and EVs are the only
solution for individual transportation that I know to be
significantly more efficient than todays cars.

Unless we all start using public transportation....

Cor van de Water
Systems Architect
Proxim Wireless Corporation http://www.proxim.com
Email: [email protected] Private: http://www.cvandewater.com
Skype: cor_van_de_water IM: [email protected]
Tel: +1 408 542 5225 VoIP: +31 20 3987567 FWD# 25925
Fax: +1 408 731 3675 eFAX: +31-87-784-1130
Second Life: www.secondlife.com/?u=3b42cb3f4ae249319edb487991c30acb

-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Michaela Merz
Sent: Friday, December 28, 2007 5:23 PM
To: Electric Vehicle Discussion List
Subject: Re: [EVDL] Aptera: Another car for Jay Lennos collection ..


> Depends when you lived. No doubt in my mind that within a handful 
> years gas will hit $10/gal and never get below that again so if you 
> want to do long-term projection.

Without sliding into some political discussions: Should gas hit 10 Dollars/Gallon in todays Dollars within the next few years, we will have
*far* bigger concerns than comparing EVs to ICEs. Anything > 6 Bucks/Gallon will most likely trigger a very bad global economy crisis and maybe even *serious* armed conflict. It will most probably not happen very soon.

mm.


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## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

Lee said:
> "It is possible to design a small light aerodynamic 4-wheel vehicle.
> In fact, there are plenty of examples of subcompact and microcars.
> Try one of these for your EV conversion. "



> Jeff Shanab wrote:
> > No thanks, I am waiting for a sunrise.
> 
> I'm not "waiting"... I'm trying to *build* a Sunrise!
> ...


----------



## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

> Lee Hart wrote:
> 
> > Lee said:
> > > "It is possible to design a small light aerodynamic 4-wheel vehicle.
> ...


----------



## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

> Cor van de Water <[email protected]> wrote:
> 
> > John wrote:
> > > ... and never spend $28K on fuel in my entire life.
> ...


----------



## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

Hi Jorg,

The issue with the Simon/Ehrlich bet was that Ehrlich
forgot the "substitution" effect, where many of the
materials that were becoming scarce were replaced with
new developments, such as fiber replacing copper wires.

Now looking at oil, I see that there is some effort underway
to tweak the efficiency of today's cars a little, but I do not
see the concerted effort to replace oil in any of the existing
major consumers, which is transportation (both private and
professional goods and people transport) including air and
road transportation (accounting for a share of 68% of all oil
consumption in the USA in 2003 according to EIA-DoE)
http://www.nrdc.org/air/transportation/oilsecurity/plan.pdf
the next largest consumer is the industry with 23% and all
other consumers together account for only 9%.
I am convinced that many industries have already optimized
their energy use, because it directly affects their bottom line,
only road transportation has been allowed to consume oil at
will, hardly regulated or encouraged to reduce consumption.
On the contrary - all that TV and magazines show day after
day, is how you *need* to have a more powerful and larger
car, for your "safety".

No doubt the coming years will see a slow process of adding
some alternatives to the mix of gasoline and Diesel burners 
that today make up 99% or so of the US transportation.
Even if GM, Toyota and other are extremely successful in
releasing plug-in and series-Hybrid vehicles to the market
starting in 2010 as planned, the total nr of alternative vehicles
in the total mix will not rise to more than a few percent.
With the continued increase in nr of vehicles and total
vehicle miles driven (I think that the miles per vehicle is also
rising, but could not find that data easily), the consumption 
of gasoline is steadily rising as the fuel efficiency has been
stagnant for years. 

What has all of this to do with EVs?
Well - I sincerely hope that one or more companies have the
vision to start cranking out millions of EVs in the next decade,
but seeing that the preparations for such an effort are not visible
today and/or are riddled with exemptions about technological
issues such as battery safety and capacity, while only a
handful vehicle manufacturers plan on doing more than just
a Hybridization of their existing models, this gives me little
hope that before at least halfway the next decade there will be
any shift in the consumption trend of motor vehicles: more,
each year.
Combined with the fact that oil production has not risen since
2006 and most oil companies refuce to build new refineries,
this tells me that we are in for a big crunch.
The USA will likely suffer the worst of all countries, simply
because it is the largest importer of oil and in addition to that,
its financial status is quickly going from bad to worse.
To a significant part that can be blamed on the actual situation
with oil - importing it means cash flow out of the country,
resulting in a debt.

To return to the bet:
Yes, I would be interested in putting some money on a $10/gal
gasoline price halfway the next decade, I like the number 7 so
why not take a date about 7 years from now: 7/7/2015?
I live near San Jose, so let's use Gasbuddy as an easy available
resource: http://www.sanjosegasprices.com/
There is an easy readable chart of day-to-day average retail price:
http://www.sanjosegasprices.com/retail_price_chart.aspx

Let's say that if the gas price on that chart reaches US$10/US gal
on any day between now and 7/7/2015 (inclusive) then I win, if not
then you win by 7/7/2015.
To keep the price in line with the units used here, let's say that
we pay the difference for a barrel (42 gallons) of gasoline.
If you win, then I will pay the difference between $420 and the
actual price of 42 gallons of gasoline at 7/7/2015.
If I win, then you pay me the difference between $420 and the
highest price of 42 gallons of gasoline in the period from now 
through 7/7/2015.

Reason to take the peak price is that it may accidentally drop
below $10/gal by the finish date, so then you would be required
to pay a negative amount. But since you are convinced it will
never go above $10, instead it will drop (if I follow the analogy
of Simon/Ehrlich) you should not have a problem with the use
of the peak value for the case when I win, as you expect that 
not to happen anyway.
I could also have taken the peak value in case that you win,
but say that the peak is $9.90 while the price at 7/7/2015 has
dropped to $5, then I assume you will be more interested in
receiving $210 than $4.20 so that is why I suggest the actual
price at the closing date.

Deal?


Cor van de Water
Systems Architect
Proxim Wireless Corporation http://www.proxim.com <http://www.proxim.com/> 
Email: [email protected] Private: http://www.cvandewater.com <http://www.cvandewater.com/> 
Skype: cor_van_de_water IM: [email protected]
Tel: +1 408 542 5225 VoIP: +31 20 3987567 FWD# 25925
Fax: +1 408 731 3675 eFAX: +31-87-784-1130
Second Life: www.secondlife.com/?u=3b42cb3f4ae249319edb487991c30acb




________________________________

From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Jorg Brown
Sent: Saturday, February 23, 2008 1:17 PM
To: Electric Vehicle Discussion List; Cor van de Water
Subject: Re: [EVDL] Aptera: Another car for Jay Lennos collection ..




> Cor van de Water <[email protected]> wrote:
> 
> 
> John wrote:
> ...


----------



## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

>
> Between 1980 and 1990, the world's population increased by 800 million
> people. During that time the $1000 combo of precious metals fell in price -
> by more than half! - from $1000 to $423.93.

What is the price of that combo today? I know that Copper prices
tripled two years ago, and haven't gone down yet. Gold is up somthing
like 50% in the last year. I'd bet that it's well above $1000 now.

Z

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## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

I wish! I keep tabs peiodically on gold, currently at $939.80/oz.

Joseph H. Strubhar

Web: www.gremcoinc.com

E-mail: [email protected]
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Zeke Yewdall" <[email protected]>
To: "Electric Vehicle Discussion List" <[email protected]>
Sent: Monday, February 25, 2008 8:12 AM
Subject: Re: [EVDL] Aptera: Another car for Jay Lennos collection ..


> >
>> Between 1980 and 1990, the world's population increased by 800 million
>> people. During that time the $1000 combo of precious metals fell in 
>> price -
>> by more than half! - from $1000 to $423.93.
>
> What is the price of that combo today? I know that Copper prices
> tripled two years ago, and haven't gone down yet. Gold is up somthing
> like 50% in the last year. I'd bet that it's well above $1000 now.
>
> Z
>
> _______________________________________________
> For subscription options, see
> http://lists.sjsu.edu/mailman/listinfo/ev
>
>
>
> -- 
> No virus found in this incoming message.
> Checked by AVG Free Edition.
> Version: 7.5.516 / Virus Database: 269.21.1/1297 - Release Date: 2/25/2008 
> 9:22 AM
>
> 

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## EVDL List (Jul 27, 2007)

> Zeke Yewdall <[email protected]> wrote:
> > > Between 1980 and 1990, the world's population increased by 800 million
> > > people. During that time the $1000 combo of precious metals fell in price -
> > > by more than half! - from $1000 to $423.93.
> ...


----------

