# Barriers to mass EV conversion



## albo2 (Oct 4, 2011)

Hi Richard I have done just that, I don't think it's entirely an economic decision, to me it's just the right thing to do.
I think our current govt is very short sighted when it comes to EV's we are the only Western country not offering incentives for early adopters, EV's could be the answer to alot of NZ's problems, we spend more a week on foreign oil than we make from our diary industry, we can generate our own power and keep the money in NZ, (that is while our power is NZ owned). We've lost our direction and seem hell bent on mining our national parks and drilling for oil, that's my rant over.


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## Readykilowatt (Aug 11, 2009)

With peak oil behind us and the EROI of oil getting worse by the year we should be looking at what the return is taking that into account, not the return on current prices.

When I started converting Celica that has done over 29000km now, my thoughts were I can not afford not to do It.

As to the battery cost, over the life of the batteries I would like to bet that the engine related costs, timing belts, oil filters ect would be close to the same as he Bat replacement cost.

With the solar panels that I have on the garage roof,( $9,000 worth makes enough power to drive 25000km per year) over there life that would work out at less than 1 cent per km. That is a farily good return on my money.

Pete


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## albo2 (Oct 4, 2011)

Not to mention the 3 tons of CO2 you now don't emit


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## LVVTA (Mar 17, 2011)

Richard

Your $43k mortgage at 6% is $2580 interest only, which is more than the petrol savings.

A $20k conversion budget realistically only gets around $8k of batteries so teh range won't be massive, this limiting the daily distance.

I've done some numbers using a Corolla as an example and pay back is well over 10 years. I calculated a $28k cost to run a petrol Corolla for 10 years and $31k for an EV conversion. It doesn't stack up on a cost only basis for a commuter car, you'd need to do it for the love, or buy a Prius C instead.

Dan


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## albo2 (Oct 4, 2011)

So did you subtract the price of the other car or is it only electric cars that have to have a pay back period just as well its free to pump 3 tons of carbon monoxide a year into the environment


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## John (Sep 11, 2007)

To purchase an ICE age car that is going to provide 10 years of reliable motoring is going to cost much more than a conversion candidate which can already be at end of life for the motor at least. A lowish mileage (~ 70,000km) turbo diesel that’s about 5 years old can be had for less than $15k. Turbo diesels cost much more than their petrol counterparts. The particular vehicle I have in mind uses 4.7 l/100km and so for an average 14,000km/year would cost approximately $1033 for fuel and $620 for RUC. This would make projected running costs for 10 years not counting inflation (likely higher than CPI for fuel) $16,530. Total cost in today’s money $31,530 around half of which is upfront. Such a vehicle would likely be running into significant reliability costs at the end of the 10 year period. It would be 15 years old with over 200,000km on the clock. It would be a good conversion candidate at this point perhaps though I would prefer a vehicle less worn out if I was going to be sinking $20k+ into it. A vehicle that has suffered some sort of mechanical misadventure which has bought forward its end of life would be better though difficult to find. Anyway I think you could save at least $10k on the conversion candidate over a reliable ICE car. This would bring the EV premium down to $10k for a $20k conversion but it would pretty much be all upfront costs of around $25k. I don’t have the figures for running costs of EV’s anymore but if I remember correctly converting your house to solar hot water heating would offset the average electricity usage for one small EV. This would be another way to solar power your EV, displacement of use.


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## Richard Wood (Jun 27, 2008)

Hi

Great to see these replies. I will need to pull my calculator out again, but in the meantime:

As I said I'm estimating fuel savings at $50 a week, so there is the $2600. I was thinking that if a person can save that money per week they can afford to put about $43,000 on their mortgage to get it. Of course the conversion will only last so long so perhaps I should recalculate on the basis of a set time period such as 10 years. Any thoughts on how long a converted 10 year old car would last? On the other hand we'd probably be able to include savings on not paying for higher mechanical upkeep on a petrol car and the avoidance of replacing the petrol car at a point earlier than an EV might need. I know toyotas never die but I suspect that if we go like for like with a 10 year old petrol car then there would be some pretty substantial mechanical costs at some point in it's next 10 years.

Range and therefore required battery is an interesting question. The big car makers are going for maximum, which only makes their cars too expensive. For people, for example, in Wellington's Lower Hutt and North Wellington areas it's 30-40km daily round trip to the CBD. So if we allow a margin above that, I'm thinking 60km is enough, is it?

My understanding is that a Prius is only more cost effective for taxi drivers, that for those of us commuting at highway speeds it's not a lot of use. 

Note, I'm already assuming this is a "want to do", so the question I am posing is whether financing is a barrier to conversions, or whether the numbers stack up sufficiently to encourage conversions. I would think marginal is good enough if enough people like the idea. 

Richard


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## CrazyAl (May 9, 2011)

Every person's situation, circumstances and motivations are different. Financing an EV conversion is definitely a consideration that needs to be taken into account, but not the only one.

For example, I'm interested in EV Conversions because I'm sick of doing oil changes, oil filter changes, valve clearance adjustments, spark plug changes, etc etc. Also, new gas cars are getting harder and harder to repair and service and need specialists tools and I can't keep up with it all. This not only takes money, but it consumes time and for me time is money.
For example, some of the diagnostic scan tools that cover many gas cars cost $15,000 and you have to keep getting updates. These new gas cars have more complex electronics and computers than EV conversions.

Another issue is taking the first step. Some go into analysis paralysis / procrastination and never take the first step. I know what that is like. That is why I started with something small like a go kart. I didn't get it right the first time round, but after reading an e-book and watching videos by a New Zealander, things made a bit more sense and I got the go kart going. I recently also went to a course which I found very helpful and I kept bombarding the lecturer with questions, including questions resulting from my Electric Go Kart conversion.

By starting on a small scale, mistakes and costs can be contained. Also, be willing to spend money on buying the right books as good books on the topic can help you save money & time as you don't have to re-invent the wheel as often and it can help you avoid costly mistakes.
Once, you get more experience with the small stuff, then doing a car will not be such a big step.

Summary:
Financing can be a barrier to EV Conversions, but analysis paralysis / procrastination is probably a bigger killer, which is why in my opinion if you don't know where to start, it is best to start of with either a go kart or bicycle and do a conversion on that. With bicycles, you can even buy bolt on kits. Doing a course also helps and joining EV clubs can be beneficial. Also, forums like www.diyelectriccar.com are great resources for helping EV Conversions become a reality for many.


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

Hi Guys

This is probably not what you want to hear 

- Anybody thinking that he is saving money by doing a conversion is deluding himself-

Do it because you want to

There is *no way* it will be as cheap as using a cheap old car and a bike

Modern cars last for ever - 3 - 4 - 500,000Km is not unusual

a $2,000 car can last 10 years

Any conversion is going to cost $10,000 - you can buy a lot of petrol for $8,000

My car is being done on the cheap - I don't dare add everything up!

And thats with a small (tiny) pack, a $100 motor, an OpenRevolt controller and a bad boy charger!


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## LVVTA (Mar 17, 2011)

I agree with Duncan, except that there are some commercial uses that may work out cost positive.

I can't attach my Excel file but my quick attempt at a 10 year comparison, with thoughts to the financing variables, was easy to do.

Richard, if you shorten the commute, the likely yearly kilometres travelled drops and therefore so does the petrol cost. In my mind it only really makes sense for a vehicle doing high kms and not straying far away from a base (for top ups or battery swaps). A courier van is the ideal application.


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## Richard Wood (Jun 27, 2008)

Hi Guys

Great to see the discussion about whether EVs are economically worthwhile, it would be nice if they are, but so long as they aren't outrageously more expensive if they aren't. Let's just assume it is a good thing to do both personally and as a public good.

If I can lead us back to the original question, I suspect there are many people who would want an EV and would be prepared to convert them but don't have the dosh. Do you think this is a barrier to doing bulk EV conversions in NZ, and if so how would it be solved, and are there any other barriers to mass EV conversion of our huge amount of cheap second hand cars?

Richard


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## CrazyAl (May 9, 2011)

Duncan said:


> - Anybody thinking that he is saving money by doing a conversion is deluding himself-


I agree with this statement at the moment. Often good things cost money.

I asked some people why they were interested in doing their own conversion and not one of them said that it was to save money. They gave other answers such as environment, simplicity, less waste, technical, not wanting to hand over their money to oil companies etc etc.


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## albo2 (Oct 4, 2011)

Hi Richard as you are probably aware the major cost to this is the batteries This will over time come down I can remember when a video player was over 1000 bucks, What is required is to get people driving these cars maybe we need a show day where people can be taken for a test drive, it is going to also take a change in mindset where we pay up front for quality, this not only goes for electric cars but for a good deal of the products we purchase, designed and perceived obsolescence needs to become a thing of the past, we do have a chance to adapt quickly or face sky rocketing prices as oil runs out, lets not forget China and India have a growing middle class they also want a car and why shouldn't they, we also need to start asking our politicians the hard questions and have some incentives in place for the early adopters it is these people that will spread the word that is get people be hind the wheel of these cars


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## Richard Wood (Jun 27, 2008)

Hi Ablo2

Thanks for identifying a couple of major barriers. Regarding communicating with people I actually think the introduction of new EVs may be working against us on this score as it's presenting EVs as very expensive - $60,000 for a compact car. Show days are a great idea. Gav did a great job of showing anyone can do a conversion, and we need more such videos. How about a reality TV show as they seem all the rage? Any other ideas anyone?

Another aspect you talk about of getting a more sustainable mindset is a longer term goal but I think that is happening. Government incentives would obviously help but can't be counted on. To me that's an argument to Government that they should be doing the right thing environmentally and I think it's more likely that local councils in New Zealand will move before central.

Battery prices do seem to be coming down. I set up another thread to look at those cost issues as I doubt it is a barrier now for the mass conversion activity we're discussing here, although financing might be. Happy to be contradicted on that though.

Cheers
Richard


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## Ziggythewiz (May 16, 2010)

Unless OEMs ever decide to use the same parts we are, the high EV sticker price is only beneficial to the conversion cause. The best parts of DIY are you choose the car and set the range. To get your payback you have to have a pack that's appropriately sized for your range. OEMs can't provide that to much of the population until they move to iPod pricing.


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## John (Sep 11, 2007)

albo2 said:


> Hi Richard as you are probably aware the major cost to this is the batteries This will over time come down I can remember when a video player was over 1000 bucks.


It takes a bit of a leap of logic for people to think of batteries as fuel and that they are purchasing half of their next 10 years worth of fuel up front. This is what makes electric cars (and hybrids) look so expensive; there is a big upfront cost but a lower everyday cost. It is difficult for people to see past the big upfront cost. Also when talking about financing there is a current aversion to debt.

I don't believe that we will see anything like the contraction in price of batteries as we have seen in other technology products. For one thing they cannot be endlessly integrated and miniaturized like other electronic goods. A certain volume of commodity metals are required for a certain capacity and while that relationship will change favorably over time it won’t be by orders of magnitude.


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## albo2 (Oct 4, 2011)

who knows what the future holds, we only have the batteries today due to the development of laptops and cellphones, what will happen when research is aimed towards EV's themselves, batteries are not the fuel they are merely the fuel tank, there is currently in developement a lithium air battery if this becomes reality they will be able to pack in 10 times the energy (electrons-fuel) of our current batteries, I don't believe the manufacturing process is that complicated for batteries, once EV's take hold then the economy of scale should dramatically reduce the cost, hopefully surely hopefully, also once lithium is mined it can be used over and over again, unlike oil burn it and it's gone.


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## John (Sep 11, 2007)

When I refer to batteries as fuel it is because they are used up over time (and cycles). If you were purchasing a used EV one of the key questions would be how much life is left in the battery. If you were buying a 9 year old EV and the life expectancy of its battery was 10 years you would want to pay significantly less for it than a 10 year old EV that had proof its battery had been changed recently. If the batteries get to the point that they outlast the rest of the car then yes it is just an energy container otherwise it is more than that. A liFePO4 battery rated at 2000 cycles would last 8 years at 250 cycles per year and this doesn't account for calendar life which is unknown. This was much more the case with flooded Lead Acid batteries which might only expect 700 cycles.

When we talk about metals in the reactivity series Lithium is pretty much at the top of the pack. It also has a very low density which is why it is the current darling when it comes to chemical potential energy. This is why I doubt we will see many orders of magnitude increases in the energy density of chemical batteries.


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## albo2 (Oct 4, 2011)

OK cool we still don't know the life span of these batteries only what can be expected statiscally through testing, lithium batteries are not dead after the 2000 3000 or 6000 cycles the producers quote but merely at 70 % or 80% correct me if I'm wrong where as you were correct lead acid is dead, so if that is more than your required range you won't even notice, hope I'm still around to enjoy my pack after the ten years and I'll report back, also Lithium is used as the anode there's plenty of scope for the cathode but oxygene would make them nice and light.
Forgot to mention BYD the largest manufacturer of batteries in the world are working on a FE battery that may not be as light as lithium but way cheaper, who knows I think GM has purchased the patent back for the NiCad and Panasonic are producing a battery for Tesla perhaps these will also make it to the market.


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## LVVTA (Mar 17, 2011)

Richard

APEV have been doing a lot of work on the costs and the results will be out soon.

http://www.apev.org.nz/News/Calculator-to-compare-total-cost-of-ownership-of-an-EV-versus-combustion-engine-vehicle

APEV have some good contacts and are concentrating on developing the marketing side of EVs so this should move things along nicely.

Dan
LVVTA, member of APEV


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## Richard Wood (Jun 27, 2008)

LVVTA said:


> Richard
> 
> APEV have been doing a lot of work on the costs and the results will be out soon.
> 
> ...


Hi Dan
Yes, very much looking forward to it, and following their other activities with interest. 
Richard


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

Hi Dan

I thought about joining APEV - but it was very expensive and they didn't seem to do anything 

I'm afraid I decided it was a scam!


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## Nick Smith (Oct 26, 2007)

Duncan said:


> Hi Dan
> 
> I thought about joining APEV - but it was very expensive and they didn't seem to do anything
> 
> I'm afraid I decided it was a scam!


Hi Duncan, no APEV is not a scam. There are some serious players behind this organisation and it is properly incorporated and funded. The value proposition of membership is something that we have been discussing and we are looking to improve the offering. As it is VERY early days in this organisation we have the opportunuty to make it what we (Ev enthusiasts) need it to be. There have been several regional coordinators appointed ( i am one of them) and we will be looking to organise lectures, show days, promotional events and member only benefits. The organisTion was only founded last october so as i said, still early days.


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## albo2 (Oct 4, 2011)

We also need an ev supplier in nz where we could purchase batteries and not have the 3 - 6months waiting/worrying period also perhaps manufacture common conversion kits toyota echo or something along those lines perhaps APEV could be trusted to organize group buys to get the price and stress levels down


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## John (Sep 11, 2007)

albo2 said:


> perhaps manufacture common conversion kits toyota echo or something along those lines


Something along the lines of the Blade Electron perhaps. Back in 2008 they had plans to produce and sell 200 per year in NZ which it seems came to nothing. I just found out Ross Blade Engineering has ceased trading earlier this year as their sole supplier Azure Dynamics is in receivership whose fate is to be decided in July. 

The beauty of a small car conversion is that low cost AC drive becomes an option along with all the nice features that brings and the light weight means that reasonable range can be had on a smallish and hence low cost battery pack. The drawback is that such small cars often have a small payload i.e. the difference between curb weight and GVWR. Also space to fit batteries can become an issue. The small payload often gives little scope to increase the vehicles weight much above the curb weight without having to reduce the number of passengers the car can legally carry. This can be very limiting as to how much battery you can carry before overloading the vehicle. 

Blade could do a conversion on the Hyundai Getz and retain 4 seats with reasonable range but couldn’t make it work on its replacement the i20 (possibly another reason for him ceasing to do conversions). I do think Australia’s rules are a bit stricter than ours around per passenger weight allowances so we might have a bit more flexibility there. I found richer pickings in terms of payload in the next size up small cars (Toyota Corolla, Misubishi Mirage, Hyundai Accent).


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## Nick Smith (Oct 26, 2007)

John said:


> I found richer pickings in terms of payload in the next size up small cars (Toyota Corolla, Misubishi Mirage, Hyundai Accent).


For sure John. I have wanted to do a conversion of a Yaris for some time but one thing always seems the same on the smaller cars - you end up having to forgo the back seat. The larger vehicles as you say have a much higher weight capacity for batteries, and often more room too.

The focus for conversions in the start would probably be directed towards commercial vehicles such as vans and utes which only have one or two occupants most of the time, and the batteries are only a small load weight sacrifice in terms of say a 1T ute. Courier vans can hardly have more than 200kg in them at any one time, so plenty spare load capacity there too. The conversions could also be a bit more "utilitarian" saving money on the niceties of life.


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## Richard Wood (Jun 27, 2008)

Yep, APEV NZ is sounding very promising and I hope it ramps up well. I agree too that common conversion kits for a small to mid sized car popular in New Zealand would be a great way to go.

John is right about the payload issue. Previously I've noticed that the Honda Civic, despite being a popular choice, has a relatively low payload compared to the Honda Accord, such that I wondered why the Civic is so utilised. It comes down I think also to the total cost being a major factor. The lower that cost, the lower the risk the converter is taking.

Sorry to hear about Blade. I guess also that Australia doesn't have the same market in terms of second hand japanese cars being so cheap, wheras we have bucket loads of them.
Richard


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

Nick Smith said:


> Hi Duncan, no APEV is not a scam. There are some serious players behind this organisation and it is properly incorporated and funded. The value proposition of membership is something that we have been discussing and we are looking to improve the offering. As it is VERY early days in this organisation we have the opportunuty to make it what we (Ev enthusiasts) need it to be. There have been several regional coordinators appointed ( i am one of them) and we will be looking to organise lectures, show days, promotional events and member only benefits. The organisTion was only founded last october so as i said, still early days.


Hi Nick

I pay hundreds of dollars to the IMPENZ and IMechE, these are professional bodies and it helps with my job,
I pay tens of dollars to my scuba club and motor club

as a hobbyist I would pay a tens of dollars to an EV club - I just don't see paying hundreds of dollars - where is it going?

A trade organization - yes that would be worthwhile *IF* I wanted an EV business 
for me ????


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

albo2 said:


> OK cool we still don't know the life span of these batteries only what can be expected statiscally through testing, lithium batteries are not dead after the 2000 3000 or 6000 cycles the producers quote but merely at 70 % or 80% correct me if I'm wrong where as you were correct lead acid is dead, so if that is more than your required range you won't even notice, hope I'm still around to enjoy my pack after the ten years and I'll report back, also Lithium is used as the anode there's plenty of scope for the cathode but oxygene would make them nice and light.
> Forgot to mention BYD the largest manufacturer of batteries in the world are working on a FE battery that may not be as light as lithium but way cheaper, who knows I think GM has purchased the patent back for the NiCad and Panasonic are producing a battery for Tesla perhaps these will also make it to the market.



Hi Albo

_I think GM has purchased the patent back for the NiCad _

Patents only last 20 years and can't be extended


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## Nick Smith (Oct 26, 2007)

Duncan said:


> Hi Nick
> 
> I pay hundreds of dollars to the IMPENZ and IMechE, these are professional bodies and it helps with my job,
> I pay tens of dollars to my scuba club and motor club
> ...


Duncan , i fully agree with your standpoint on this one regarding the price for individual membership. It will be up to APEV to make the membership fee worth YOUR while paying or maybe come up with a different "class" of membership (i.e gradIPENZ). Until that happens i see that there will be a reluctance for indivuals to join. Interestingly enough i am also an MIPENZ and i have been feeling for some time that IPENZ is not giving me personally anything of value. The only reason i keep paying the fee is because of its National and international standing.

In short, if there is nothing in it for you, why would you join? What level of membership fee would you pay? 50 bucks? What would you expect from APEV if you paid the full individual fee of ~150? These are serious questions that APEV needs the answer to. Membership is optional. Cheers Nick


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## Richard Wood (Jun 27, 2008)

Nick Smith said:


> In short, if there is nothing in it for you, why would you join? What level of membership fee would you pay? 50 bucks? What would you expect from APEV if you paid the full individual fee of ~150? These are serious questions that APEV needs the answer to. Membership is optional. Cheers Nick


Joining a membership organisation doesn't have to be just about what is in it for you. As the saying goes - something like "ask not what your country can do for you...". 

An organisation may provide an opportunity to contribute towards a goal you believe in, getting better results by collaborating with the other members.

Of course, you can always interpret that ability to contribute collaboratively and the personal networking you get as something that is actually in it for you. 

For myself, I'd pay $30-$50 to join such an organisation, even if that is the only benefit. 

Cheers
Richard


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

Richard Wood said:


> Joining a membership organisation doesn't have to be just about what is in it for you. As the saying goes - something like "ask not what your country can do for you...".
> 
> An organisation may provide an opportunity to contribute towards a goal you believe in, getting better results by collaborating with the other members.
> 
> ...


Hi Richard - so would I - but my generosity stops at about $50


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