# Tesla's 'Gigafactory' May End Up Also Transforming the Power Industry



## EVDL Archive (Jul 26, 2007)

If Tesla can educe the costs of its batteries by more then 70 percent , it will make economic sense for homeowners to producer their own electricity using solar energy.

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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

Maybe i am missing something here, but i dont see how this battery factory can make a impact on any energy system infrastructure.
For a start, this "Gigafactory" will only be big enough to supply battery's for Tesla's planned car production in 2017 when it starts producing.
So, there will be little capacity for any extra batterys dedicated for solar storage.
And i cannot believe the idea that EV owners will use their cars for Solar storage either.
How many Tesla customers are likely to invest $50k -$100k in an EV car just to have it stood around during the day soaking up solar power ( instead of being used as a car ) just so it can power their air con at night..(and then be unavailable to use for commuting the next morning !)


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

Karter2 said:


> And i cannot believe the idea that EV owners will use their cars for Solar storage either.
> How many Tesla customers are likely to invest $50k -$100k in an EV car just to have it stood around during the day soaking up solar power ( instead of being used as a car ) just so it can power their air con at night..(and then be unavailable to use for commuting the next morning !)


This depends on their needs and their car's capacity
If I have a car with 250 miles range and a 30 mile commute then I could use 150 - 200 miles of capacity to store and use electricity

If the car is at work during the day then I could buy night rate power and use the car to operate my house
In some places that is 1/5th the cost

With a decent computerized grid-car-grid system there are tons of options

As far as the factorie's capacity is concerned - once you have the "make it machine" set up expanding capacity normally reduces the costs
And you would normally expand capacity as long as you have customers


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## rochesterricer (Jan 5, 2011)

I think there is an expectation of excess production capacity, beyond what is used for the cars. If so, it may be absorbed by Solar City, one of Elon's other companies.


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## sunworksco (Sep 8, 2008)

There will be thousands of used Tesla batteries sold for stationary battery pack systems.


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

rochesterricer said:


> I think there is an expectation of excess production capacity, beyond what is used for the cars.





Duncan said:


> As far as the factorie's capacity is concerned - once you have the "make it machine" set up expanding capacity normally reduces the costs
> And you would normally expand capacity as long as you have customers


 you are both missing the point that the planned capacity of the "Gigafactory" ( 35GWhrs/yr , ..which is equal to all other Li battery capacity in the world !)..
..... is still less than Tesla's planned requirements for cars in 2017.
So, how can he intend to sell packs dedicated to solar storage as well ?

Sure he could expand capacity ( Gigafactory ++ ?). but that is not what is planned in this proposal.



Duncan said:


> If the car is at work during the day then I could buy night rate power and use the car to operate my house


 ??..sorry, i dont understand that scenario, could you explain ??
If you charge the car at night and then use it to commute to work, how can you use it to also "operate your house"


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

sunworksco said:


> There will be thousands of used Tesla batteries sold for stationary battery pack systems.


 But are they not supposed to have a 10 year life ?
so it will be 2023 before any real quantity start to be available !
..and of course by then Tesla will need even more battery capacity to be able to replace those "retired" packs from old cars.


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## sunworksco (Sep 8, 2008)

There will be a lot of wrecked Tesla's to cannabalize.


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## rochesterricer (Jan 5, 2011)

Karter2 said:


> you are both missing the point that the planned capacity of the "Gigafactory" ( 35GWhrs/yr , ..which is equal to all other Li battery capacity in the world !)..
> ..... is still less than Tesla's planned requirements for cars in 2017.
> So, how can he intend to sell packs dedicated to solar storage as well ?
> 
> Sure he could expand capacity ( Gigafactory ++ ?). but that is not what is planned in this proposal.


The Tesla PDF claims the factory will produce enough battery packs for 500,000 cars a year, which is their total planned production for 2020. The author may also be extrapolating based on the effects this will have on the battery market as a whole. Perhaps suggesting this will encourage other companies to copy Tesla and build similar factories.


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## dreamer (Feb 28, 2009)

Karter2 said:


> ??..sorry, i dont understand that scenario, could you explain ??
> If you charge the car at night and then use it to commute to work, how can you use it to also "operate your house"


 On a daily basis, if you drive only 40 miles with a battery pack that is 250 mile range, then you need only a few hours per night to recharge it. During the evening and weekend days and evenings, you can use the energy in the battery that was charged during the late-night cheap rate power period. During the workday, the car is not available to power the house, but that still leaves evenings and weekends. And with nobody home during the workday, the electric usage is low -- no lights, no a/c, no stove, no tv, etc. -- so the bulk of your electric bill would be due to charging at low kwh rates. That said, an EV is not needed for this scenario. If a grid tie inverter and battery pack was cheap enough, and if the difference between night-time and day-time rate was large enough, it would make sense to do this now.


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

> The Tesla PDF claims the factory will produce enough battery packs for 500,000 cars a year, which is their total planned production for 2020.


 Well if that is the case , a lot of those will have smaller packs than the current 85kWhr in them.

Actually there are some odd figures on pg 3 of that pdf.


> 2020 Tesla Vehicle Volume ��500,000/yr
> 2020 Gigafactory Cell Output 35 GWh/yr
> 2020 Gigafactory Pack Output 50 GWh/yr


Im trying to understand how they will produce more GWhrs in packs than they make in cells ?
Unless the extra 15Gwhr of packs is from recycling ?


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## PhantomPholly (Aug 20, 2008)

Karter2 said:


> Im trying to understand how they will produce more GWhrs in packs than they make in cells ?


The reason they are building the plant is because they cannot buy enough cells on the market. Just because they build some of the cells themselves does not mean they won't continue to buy cells elsewhere for their packs. In fact, it would be a dumb idea to build all the cells themselves - trying to build so much capacity would make cells cheaper for their competitors.


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## rochesterricer (Jan 5, 2011)

Karter2 said:


> Well if that is the case , a lot of those will have smaller packs than the current 85kWhr in them.


The vast majority of them will be for the Model E, which is targeting a range of 200 miles, so it won't likely have anywhere near 85kwhr.



> Actually there are some odd figures on pg 3 of that pdf.
> Im trying to understand how they will produce more GWhrs in packs than they make in cells ?
> Unless the extra 15Gwhr of packs is from recycling ?


I'm guessing the cells produced at the factory will be the cheaper ones for the Model E. The more energy dense cells for the Model S will probably still be purchased from an outside supplier like Panasonic and be assembled into packs at the factory.


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## palmer_md (Jul 22, 2011)

rochesterricer said:


> The vast majority of them will be for the Model E, which is targeting a range of 200 miles, so it won't likely have anywhere near 85kwhr.


While I agree that they will likely be less than 85kWh, you have to be careful with the wording on the Gen3 Tesla. They are targeting an entry level model that has 200 miles range and costs $35,000 before rebates. That does not mean that they are all 200 mile range cars, just that there is a low cost option that will be 200 miles. They will probably have at least one battery upgrade option, and many other options just like they do with the Model S. Just like the original Model S could be configured for $49k after rebate ($57k before rebate), but nobody was ordering that car. Everyone was upgrading to 60kWh or 85kWh and almost everyone was adding tech package and other items that run the cost up. I doubt they will sell many cars for under $40k even if it is possible to configure one for $35k.

Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge Tesla fan and I plan to order one, but just like there were very few $50k Model S, there will be very few $35k Model E and few that only get the 200 mile range pack.

If their stock keeps going up I'm going to purchase the Model E super sport plus (or whatever they call the high performance model) with my stock earnings.


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## palmer_md (Jul 22, 2011)

funny. right after I posted that I ran into a thread where somebody was calculating the expected cost of a Gen3 car. Here is their prediction.










http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...-summary/page2?p=594153&viewfull=1#post594153

I don't agree with all the numbers, but I think it is close enough.


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

Elon says $60.00-$70.00 / KWH in materials , better chemistry will change that number . The 85KWH battery is said to coast $15000 - $5900 ( 70X 85 )=$9500 for wages and investment 
$70,000 average wage coast overhead/ worker (my guess )x6,500 workers=$455,000,000 / 500,000 packs $910/pack labor .(seems like a lot 26 hrs./ pack) I would suggest they will have mush higher capacity then 500,000/year .(added ; in a super high production plant 2 hours would a lot)
$9,500-$910=$8,590 / unit to overhead
$6,000,000,000/$8,590=698,486 85KWH units or 1,396,973 42.5 KWH units


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

I'm thinking to get the labor down to <2hrs. with 6500 people 5,000,000 units / year . not at first, but as demand increases . They will have full time people with stopwatches working on cutting labor cost, that will go on as long as they make batteries .


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## rochesterricer (Jan 5, 2011)

palmer_md said:


> While I agree that they will likely be less than 85kWh, you have to be careful with the wording on the Gen3 Tesla. They are targeting an entry level model that has 200 miles range and costs $35,000 before rebates. That does not mean that they are all 200 mile range cars, just that there is a low cost option that will be 200 miles. They will probably have at least one battery upgrade option, and many other options just like they do with the Model S. Just like the original Model S could be configured for $49k after rebate ($57k before rebate), but nobody was ordering that car. Everyone was upgrading to 60kWh or 85kWh and almost everyone was adding tech package and other items that run the cost up. I doubt they will sell many cars for under $40k even if it is possible to configure one for $35k.


Have they made any announcement to this effect? Don't get me wrong, its a definite possibility they will have multiple pack options, but there is also a chance they will eliminate the multiple pack option for this model to reduce costs and meet their price target.


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## palmer_md (Jul 22, 2011)

no, they've said nothing about options and such. The only public statements are that he wants to build a car that is about the size of a BMW3 or MercedesC that will have at least 200 miles range and cost about $35k before tax credits. Everything else is just speculation based on how they optioned and priced the Model S.


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

aeroscott said:


> Elon says $60.00-$70.00 / KWH in materials , better chemistry will change that number . The 85KWH battery is said to coast $15000 - $5900 ( 70X 85 )=$9500 for wages and investment
> $70,000 average wage coast overhead/ worker (my guess )x6,500 workers=$455,000,000 / 500,000 packs $910/pack labor .(seems like a lot 26 hrs./ pack) I would suggest they will have mush higher capacity then 500,000/year .(added ; in a super high production plant 2 hours would a lot)
> $9,500-$910=$8,590 / unit to overhead
> $6,000,000,000/$8,590=698,486 85KWH units or 1,396,973 42.5 KWH units


 Where did you take the $6,000,000,000 figure from ?
If that is the "investment" figure that is being put out by Tesla, then that will be amortized over more than one years production.
And they have already stated the plant capacity at 35GWhrs of cells, & 50GWhrs of packs .


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

Karter2 said:


> Where did you take the $6,000,000,000 figure from ?
> If that is the "investment" figure that is being put out by Tesla, then that will be amortized over more than one years production.


 Amortized deprecation is for tax law . When they talk behind closed doors " when do we get our money back, we need it to move on"
The $6B investment ,6,500 jobs are Tesla. 500,000 units are cars planed per year . 50GWhr.=50,000,000,000Whr./6,500 workers=7,692,307Whr.per.man year or (7,692,307 /2,000 man hours/year)=3,846 Whrs. / man hour(85KWhr.pack is 22 man hrs.) .Close to my math. 22 hours is ok in a pre production test run . 
Thanks for pointing it out , unless I ran the numbers your way , I wouldn't know they were so close .


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

The 50GWhrs, and 500k cars is a 2020 plan figure.
Thats 3 years after the "Gigafactory" start date !
No manufacturing project gives a full return on its cost in the first year of operation.


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

My dad worked for a huge corp. He was setting up a line for flame spraying steel about $1 million, a very small line . He was a senior engineer 30+ years ,they wouldn't tell him the product price or return expected, but he had to come up with the cost return study , they finally said 6 months return on money or we will do something else .They did something else . Dad was shocked beyond belief
stoskholders report claimed 3% profit/ year


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

My math only indicates what money is left after production of number units built ( not including electric etc) not a time frame . I needed to use the end production numbers / employment numbers because I have no others.


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

aeroscott said:


> My dad worked for a huge corp. He was setting up a line for flame spraying steel about $1 million, a very small line . He was a senior engineer 30+ years ,they wouldn't tell him the product price or return expected, but he had to come up with the cost return study , they finally said 6 months return on money or we will do something else .They did something else . Dad was shocked beyond belief
> stoskholders report claimed 3% profit/ year


But that is normal
He was working on improving a "Cost Center" - the actual revenue from the product is not relevant when you are comparing projects to reduce costs.

Your dad's competition was not the overall return but the expected return from other cost reduction projects 
The executive should have been comparing other projects and picking the best - saying that six months is fast!

That is the official story - having worked in industry what was probably happening was the guys in charge were picking projects on the basis of
"What will be best for ME"

Mid level managers and senior engineers tend to be very "task" focused
Senior managers and executives tend (nearly 100%) to be totally ME focused

Which is what you should expect
Two managers 
one concentrates on the job 
The other concentrates on his own promotion
Which one ends up on top??


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

aeroscott said:


> Amortized deprecation is for tax law . When they talk behind closed doors " when do we get our money back, we need it to move on"
> The $6B investment ,6,500 jobs are Tesla. 500,000 units are cars planed per year . 50GWhr.=50,000,000,000Whr./6,500 workers=7,692,307Whr.per.man year or (7,692,307 /2,000 man hours/year)=3,846 Whrs. / man hour(85KWhr.pack is 22 man hrs.) .Close to my math. 22 hours is ok in a pre production test run .
> Thanks for pointing it out , unless I ran the numbers your way , I wouldn't know they were so close .


 Sorry, i missed this, but i think we figured that the 50Gwhr figure included "bought in " cell supply, and the actual output of the Gigafactory" was the 35GWhr number.
so for "production" we have 2,692 Whr per manhr
But i think the whole calculation is flawed since we dont know how many workers or assigned to cell production and how many to pack assy !


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

But i think the whole calculation is flawed since we dont know how many workers or assigned to cell production and how many to pack assy !

You are correct - we don't know!
However if Musk is correct about $70/Kwhr materials cost and he gets the labour costs down in his new factory
Then that will be a game changer for the power industry even if it takes a few years to build up capacity and drive the market "price" down - and all of the time that he is making batteries with a "cost" so much less than the market "price" he will be making money hand over fist


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

Karter2 said:


> Sorry, i missed this, but i think we figured that the 50Gwhr figure included "bought in " cell supply, and the actual output of the Gigafactory" was the 35GWhr number.
> so for "production" we have 2,692 Whr per manhr
> But i think the whole calculation is flawed since we dont know how many workers or assigned to cell production and how many to pack assy !


 If the plant builds a given output and has no other products then all the employes are paid from battery units, except r and d . So we take the 2,692wh. @12watts/cell that's 226 cells/ hr. and 31 hrs. for a 85 kwh. pack . That's more time then it takes to build a car. And cars are not as automated as this battery plant will be . When we see production lines on tv , they are slowed way down . In real life they are dangerously fast .


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

aeroscott said:


> If the plant builds a given output and has no other products then all the employes are paid from battery units, except r and d . So we take the 2,692wh. @12watts/cell that's 226 cells/ hr. and 31 hrs. for a 85 kwh. pack . That's more time then it takes to build a car. And cars are not as automated as this battery plant will be . .


 I think you have lost yourself there by using wrong units.
35gWhrs/yr = 100MWhr/day =4,166MWhr/hr = approx 50 x 85kWhr packs (per hour!)



aeroscott said:


> When we see production lines on tv , they are slowed way down . In real life they are dangerously fast .


 True, 
35gWhr/yr is approx 100MWhrs per day
Lets assume they make 18650's ( i doubt it , but lets go with it for now)
100MWhrs is roughly 10 million cells per day, or 6,700 every minute.
Coincidentally, that 6700 figure is approx how many cells there are in a Tesla 60kWhr pack !
So we can imagine one car pack being produced every minute .!
Can we also imagine the testing and charging facilities needed to keep pace with this capacity !


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

> Originally Posted by *aeroscott*
> Elon says $60.00-$70.00 / KWH in materials , better chemistry will change that number . The 85KWH battery is said to coast $15000


??
Curious about these numbers ?
Accept maybe the $70 figure for "raw" material input for 1kWhr of cells.
..But the $15k for the pack doesnt ring true.
Even Musk says he wants cell costs to get down below $200/kWhr, which suggests that they are above that currently...$250 -300 ?
But even $250/kWhr would put a 85kWhr pack at $21+k minimum for cells alone !
...before you add on all the build materials and assembly costs !

So if he is targeting $200/kWhr and raw materials are $70, and labour costs is $15-20 /kWhr ..
That leaves $110/kWhr to cover all other operational costs & materials.


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

Karter2 said:


> I think you have lost yourself there by using wrong units.
> 35gWhrs/yr = 100MWhr/day =4,166MWhr/hr = approx 50 x 85kWhr packs (per hour!)


I like your math, so 4,166,000whrs.per. hr. /6500 people=641whrs. per. 1man hr. ( 85000/641whr.=132 man hrs.per. 85kwhr. pack ) 132 hrs.X $35( too cheep)=$4641 per pack + $ 6,000 materials($70 per.kwhr. X 85 kwhr.)

True, 
35gWhr/yr is approx 100MWhrs per day
Lets assume they make 18650's ( i doubt it , but lets go with it for now)
100MWhrs is roughly 10 million cells per day, or 6,700 every minute.
Coincidentally, that 6700 figure is approx how many cells there are in a Tesla 60kWhr pack [/QUOTE]
6700 cells per.min. / 6500 people=1.03 cell per man minute .

So we can imagine one car pack being produced every minute .!
Can we also imagine the testing and charging facilities needed to keep pace with this capacity ![/QUOTE]
State of the art highly automated with lots of test stations .I was trying to put my comments between your quotes .


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

So we can imagine one car pack being produced every minute .!

Cummins Diesel engines were produced at CMEP with a TAK time of less than one minute, 
We used four engine test cells with a floor to floor time of less than four minutes for the test cycle,

500 engines/day on one shift

And that was a small slow operation by automotive standards


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

Was that the "B series" , how meany men at the plant .
I saw a crankshaft cutting machine (in a magazine ) that would machine a crank in 30 sec. It had a ring with 100's of carbide inserts on the inside of the ring , crank went through the ring .ring looked about 1+ feet dia.


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

Any one know the steps to make a 18650 . Is it like a coil inside the shell or just like a "AA alkaline"


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

aeroscott said:


> Was that the "B series" , how meany men at the plant .
> I saw a crankshaft cutting machine (in a magazine ) that would machine a crank in 30 sec. It had a ring with 100's of carbide inserts on the inside of the ring , crank went through the ring .ring looked about 1+ feet dia.



Yes that was the 6BTAA - for the Dodge Ram - I think about 250 people - but I'm not sure, My bit was engine assembly and test - not people

I have seen some amazing machining operations - 

I think the B series (now 24valve) is now made with "cracked conrods" 
The conrods are machined then dipped in liquid nitrogen and the end caps "cracked" off them - so that the rods can be assembled onto the cranks, Cummins bought the idea from the Germans

The most amazing thing - and it ties in with this thread - is that that the complete Six liter turbo diesel was being sold to Chrysler for less than $2000

If Cummins can make and sell those beasts for $2000 I have no doubt that 85Kwhr packs will eventually cost close to the material cost of $6000
Or even less as the material costs will go down as well


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

And they were making bank on those engines too.
I have a 92 with a 96 hd engine . paid 3k from the junk yard for the engine .


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

Was looking for vid on making 18650's and found some on making grafine. home made the strongest materiel known . supercaps for motor controller or strong parts?


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## kennybobby (Aug 10, 2012)

*If not the 18650, then what size?*

Hey yall must be some kinda wall-street wizards with all that number crunching and calculatus and mathturbating... 

But seriously what size do you think they would make if not the 18650? They have a lot of R&D into packaging the packs and making it work.


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

More number crunching to try to get a better feel for pack costs..

Taking Musks numbers…


$70/kwhr as a given for cell raw materials.
$6bn as the capital investment.
6500* as the employee number ( @ say $70k/yr ?) = $455m salaries per annum.
35gWhrs as annual cell manufacturing capacity.

Cost per kWhr produced..(approximate)


*Direct Labour* = $455 m / 35m kWhrs = $13 kW/hr

*Capital Costs*
Musk & his investors will want to get their investment back reasonably quickly ( 5 yrs ?) = $1.2 bn pa
and will also expect a ongoing return on that investment (~10% pa ?) = $0.6bn pa
So the plant needs to generate $1.8bn pa for capital recovery
Capital cost = $1.8bn / 35mkWhrs = $51.5 per kWhr

So a basic cost per kWhr for cell production is at least..
70+13+51.5 = $134.5
..but remember that is without any other operating costs or material inputs.
…of which there are many

Its worth noting that this would put the CELL ONLY costs of an 85kWhr pack at $11,400 before you add in all the assembly costs of materials, cooling system, BMS, etc etc .
I cannot see the finished pack cost below $15k and probably much more !

A 50kWhr pack (Gen 3 ?) might just be do able for $10 -$12k, but that is still an expensive component in a $35k vehicle 

* Does anybody else think that 6500 workers is a lot for a “state of the art” automated production facility ? ..even operating 24/7.
I suspect that figure may be “Politically loaded” to appeal to potential State authorities. !


Comments ?
What additional costs does anyone think should be added for "operating costs" ..maintenance , consumables, employee overheads, tax's, logistics, etc etc.
a $$ or % figure would be useful !


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

aeroscott said:


> Any one know the steps to make a 18650 . Is it like a coil inside the shell or just like a "AA alkaline"


Try this..

http://americanmanufacturing.org/fil...main%20(4).pdf


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

Karter2 said:


> Try this..
> 
> http://americanmanufacturing.org/fil...main%20(4).pdf


Great find , breaks down costs($1.30/cell materials
) , steeps in production . Just gave it a quick look .


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

70%-80% of cell cost is materials , world production in 2010 was 10,000,000,000 cells, if that's @10 watts/ cell that's 100 billion watts per year .100 Bwh/85000wh= 1,176,470 is 85k teslas


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

The biggest market for those 10bn cells (40%) is laptop computers which is a rapidly dying market as people move to tablet (Ipad etc) and thin lighweight portables.
There will be a huge supply of 18650 cells available over the next few years.
Trade experts report that quality 18650 cell prices are already below $1/cell for wholesale bulk buyers, so a major player like Tesla would be able to buy for well under $1 /cell.
I cannot see how the Gigafactory will be able to produce cells at that cost with the financial overheads that it will carry.
That leads me to again think that it will be producing a different type of cell.


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

Karter2 said:


> The biggest market for those 10bn cells (40%) is laptop computers which is a rapidly dying market as people move to tablet (Ipad etc) and thin lighweight portables.
> There will be a huge supply of 18650 cells available over the next few years.
> Trade experts report that quality 18650 cell prices are already below $1/cell for wholesale bulk buyers, so a major player like Tesla would be able to buy for well under $1 /cell.
> I cannot see how the Gigafactory will be able to produce cells at that cost with the financial overheads that it will carry.
> That leads me to again think that it will be producing a different type of cell.


 $1/ cell , $1.30 cell, $70/ kwh or $.07/cell? if we add 30% to $.07= $.10 each !


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

aeroscott said:


> $1/ cell , $1.30 cell, $70/ kwh or $.07/cell? if we add 30% to $.07= $.10 each !


 Not quite.
$70/kWhr and 10Whrs per cell 
=$70 per 100cells
=$0.70 per cell ( raw materials only)


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

Thanks that brings it back in line.


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

Karter2 said:


> I think you have lost yourself there by using wrong units.
> 35gWhrs/yr = 100MWhr/day =4,166MWhr/hr = approx 50 x 85kWhr packs (per hour!)
> 
> 
> ...


 could you point out my units problem . thanks


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

> ... So we take the 2,692wh. @12watts/cell that's 226 cells/ hr. and 31 hrs. for a 85 kwh. pack .





Karter2 said:


> I think you have lost yourself there by using wrong units./QUOTE]
> 
> 
> > could you point out my units problem . thanks
> ...


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

Karter2 said:


> Try this..
> 
> http://americanmanufacturing.org/fil...main%20(4).pdf


 This is a great read if you want to understand 18650 production !
7 pages of teck reading.


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

This video (from about 4:30 on,) shows the basic principles of Li can type cell manufacture. Bigger cells than 18650's obviously, but same basic process.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lt6oKRQqoSc

aeroscott, do you have a link to the where Musk was talking of raw material costs at $70.
He seems to be talking half as much as that other paper ?


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

Musk was giving an interview ,not long ago . I didn't save it . Googled tesla stock or tesla news .


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

From Karter2's(great) link, $1.00 per cell wholesale in 2010 or 2011 . If Tesla can increase the energy per cell by 2X ,that could mean $3,000 -$4,000 85kwh wholesale pack. And own the lithium mine which sounds sounds like a simple mining process , IE;600 ft. well, pump water threw the salt deposit, evaporate the salt brine in surface ponds, much more processing to extract the lithium . Water would become a issue at some time , they could cover the ponds to capture evaporated water. Which is expensive but not a game changer . 
I wounder how many lithium deposits remain undiscovered .


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