# Finally - people are waking up



## PhantomPholly (Aug 20, 2008)

As I've been saying for years, electric vehicles will someday be cheaper than ICE vehicles - and I've further predicted that that will happen by about 2030.

Half a decade later, a few others are FINALLY waking up to the same realization.

*Electric Cars Could Be Cheaper Than Internal Combustion by 2030*


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## ColMosby (Sep 24, 2017)

That's about as pessimistic view as I've yet heard. Try "By 2020" electric cars will outnumber non-electric models in showrooms.


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## PhantomPholly (Aug 20, 2008)

ColMosby said:


> That's about as pessimistic view as I've yet heard. Try "By 2020" electric cars will outnumber non-electric models in showrooms.


Pessimistic? That's only 3 years away. Do you have evidence to suggest it will happen that soon, or are you simply trolling?


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## Jdrissel (Nov 7, 2017)

Yes, the people are waking up. So are the corporations. Texas just began revoking titles with a rule that may be greasing the skids under DIY electric cars too. See the japolink article about Texas revoking titles on dune buggies and sand rails, and read the rule in question.


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## PhantomPholly (Aug 20, 2008)

Jdrissel said:


> Yes, the people are waking up. So are the corporations. Texas just began revoking titles with a rule that may be greasing the skids under DIY electric cars too. See the japolink article about Texas revoking titles on dune buggies and sand rails, and read the rule in question.


Not entirely certain how that has to do with the progress of batteries? In fact it sounds entirely like a local issue. I'm guessing that those same vehicles can still be licensed as a motorcycle as in other states? There are lots of states in which vehicles with no body, such as sand rails, cannot be titled for operation on the streets as a "car." To that all I can say is, contact your Congresspersons...


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## Jdrissel (Nov 7, 2017)

The big 3 now see that they are so far behind the technology curve that people can make a DIY car that is better and cheaper than what they are selling. 

The batteries getting better and cheaper is a big part of that.

If you ran one of the big three and realized that the time was here when kids could build a better EV in their parent's garage right now than what you have in the pipeline for 5 years from now, and you have billions tied up in making ICE engines that are not competative or compelling to most consumers, and that even if you do sort out the mess you are in, Tesla will be 10 years ahead & Toyota at least 5 years ahead as well, what do you do? The most frequently practiced tactic is to try to slow down progress, and hope that either you can catch up or your competition falters.

BTW, they are not re-classifying these vehicles as motorcycles, they are declaring them to not be vehicles as far as use on the pavement goes. You can not register them, get them inspected or insured at all. Doing this in the name of safety while it remains legal to ride un-restrained in the bed of a pickup truck or ride a motorcycle without a helmet is clearly a false front.

I suspect some beaurocrat was PO'ed about some kid's loud car and obnoxous driving habits.


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## PhantomPholly (Aug 20, 2008)

Jdrissel said:


> BTW, they are not re-classifying these vehicles as motorcycles, they are declaring them to not be vehicles as far as use on the pavement goes. You can not register them, get them inspected or insured at all. Doing this in the name of safety while it remains legal to ride un-restrained in the bed of a pickup truck or ride a motorcycle without a helmet is clearly a false front.


While it is certainly not outside of the realm of possibility that money changed hands (thus it ever was), I also have to wonder if they didn't simply start applying the national "automobile" standards to these vehicles. Dune buggies notoriously do not meet national crash standards, for example. 

I wouldn't simply assume they cannot be re-registered as motorcycles, or under some other category. Bureaucrats in general are singularly unlikely to have included instructions as to how you CAN get them registered, typically they simply tell you what you CAN'T do.


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## brian_ (Feb 7, 2017)

Jdrissel said:


> The big 3 now see that they are so far behind the technology curve that people can make a DIY car that is better and cheaper than what they are selling.


I don't believe that is anywhere close to true, based on both common sense and the projects shown in this forum. If you are serious about this comparison, you need to count the cost of salvaged parts instead of new, count any labour cost, and meet all legal and regulatory requirements with that DIY project.

So, what element of technology is contained in any DIY EV which is superior to the technology used by the major auto manufacturers? The best DIY EVs are built entirely of components salvaged from production EVs by those same major manufacturers, plus some electronics built to bridge the pieces. The same technology is available to all major manufacturers (although of this group of three only GM has it in-house), and any of them could build any size, style, and performance of EV desired at short notice... if they chose to throw away enough of their shareholders' money to do it.

By the way, I haven't heard the term "the big 3" for a long time; is it still supposed GM, Ford, and Chrysler? Two of those are not big compared to the real biggest automotive manufacturers, which include Volkswagen and Toyota. It originally meant the three major U.S.-based manufacturers, but Chrysler hasn't fit that description for almost twenty years, and is currently a branch of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles.


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## Moltenmetal (Mar 20, 2014)

Used OEM EVs are very cheap. You can get a very significant "intelligence discount" for buying one. Resale prices are depressed out of fear of the unknown, and it applies to cars as well demonstrated and popular as the Prius in my experience to this day. I bought my last Prius used for about the same price as a used Matrix of the same year and mileage...


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## PhantomPholly (Aug 20, 2008)

brian_ said:


> By the way, I haven't heard the term "the big 3" for a long time; is it still supposed GM, Ford, and Chrysler? Two of those are not big compared to the real biggest automotive manufacturers, which include Volkswagen and Toyota. It originally meant the three major U.S.-based manufacturers, but Chrysler hasn't fit that description for almost twenty years, and is currently a branch of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles.


Yep. According to the internoise, top 4 are currently:

Rank Group Country
1 Toyota Japan
2 Volkswagen Group Germany
3 Hyundai / KiaSouth Korea
4 General Motors United States

We no longer even have one in the top 3.


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

At least you still have some motor manufacturing onshore!
Down here in the big red southern land we now have no, nada, zero , none, !
All the manufacture's , local, USA, European, Japanese, Asian, etc.....have all shut down their onshore manufacturing, and just import complete vehicles now.
.....that has huge "knock on" effects to other engineering , service, and manufacturing supply industries locally.
I personally do not believe we can be classed as a "First World" nation without a core onshore Auto manufacturing industry.


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## EV-olve (Nov 17, 2017)

PhantomPholly said:


> As I've been saying for years, electric vehicles will someday be cheaper than ICE vehicles - and I've further predicted that that will happen by about 2030.
> 
> Half a decade later, a few others are FINALLY waking up to the same realization.
> 
> *Electric Cars Could Be Cheaper Than Internal Combustion by 2030*


They'll certainly be far better than ICE vehicles in almost every way by 2030, except maybe cost and Engine sound!


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## PhantomPholly (Aug 20, 2008)

EV-olve said:


> They'll certainly be far better than ICE vehicles in almost every way by 2030, except maybe cost and Engine sound!


 Err, the whole point of my post was COST...  But yes, I do believe they are still on track to be far cheaper than ICE vehicles by 2030. 24-M is still a strong contender, looking to have 350wH/kg batteries in pilot plant construction by the end of this year, with capital startup costs for their technology being far less than traditional batteries like Tesla's. XNRGI's Powerchip looks very interesting. And Tesla also claims to have a 350wH/kg variant in the works for next year. Lots more contenders in the labs, but of course many will fall by the wayside.


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