# Electric Cars At the 'Tipping Point'



## PhantomPholly (Aug 20, 2008)

If you go with the classic curve and include only pure-EV cars, we are not yet into the "Early Adopters" phase but still in the Innovators phase.

I reported a few months back seeing 5 Leafs in our work parking deck which holds a maximum of 500 cars for a 1% saturation. Last week I saw 10 Leafs (and they seem to have given up on getting one of the 4 chargers) for 2% saturation in just another 6-8 weeks. I think they are mostly leases.


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## dladd (Jun 1, 2011)

By the numbers there aren't many of them, but it's nice that they are now just becoming cars. Nothing weird or odd, just cars. Out here on the west coast I see at least 2 Tesla's a day, quite a few Leaf's and a shitload of green stickered plug in hybrids (does that count?).

I was talking to the dad of a classmate of my daughter who just bought a Tesla S. I was quite disappointed to find out he is not a car guy at all, really knows nothing about the Tesla. He just plugs it in and drives. Progress I guess, right? lol.


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## Grant_NZ (May 28, 2008)

dladd said:


> I was talking to the dad of a classmate of my daughter who just bought a Tesla S. I was quite disappointed to find out he is not a car guy at all, really knows nothing about the Tesla. He just plugs it in and drives. Progress I guess, right? lol.


...and thats the point; to mass market EV's, dont sell it as an EV, sell as something people want. Most people wouldnt know how to change a tyre let alone care whats under the bonnet.... just my 2 cents


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## PhantomPholly (Aug 20, 2008)

Grant_NZ said:


> ...and thats the point; to mass market EV's, dont sell it as an EV, sell as something people want. Most people wouldnt know how to change a tyre let alone care whats under the bonnet.... just my 2 cents


Nothing special needs to be done, it will happen all on its own.

As the price comes down, there will come a time no one will want an ICE vehicle anymore.

I suspect that the adopter graph I posted wouldn't be too far off the mark if you were to correlate the dividing points as decades. We're already about half way through the first decade; by 2030 I believe about half the fleet will be all-electric and the vast majority by 2040.

It may seem slow now, but it will be nearly geometric until saturation is reached.


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## dougingraham (Jul 26, 2011)

I think we are 5 or 6 years away from the early adopter stage. But hang on when we get there because the OEM's will have trouble making them fast enough.


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## PhantomPholly (Aug 20, 2008)

dougingraham said:


> I think we are 5 or 6 years away from the early adopter stage. But hang on when we get there because the OEM's will have trouble making them fast enough.


lol I thought that was what I just said... 

If the end of the "Innovators" phase comes at the end of 2019, then the next decade would be the "Early Adopters."

I think it is a pretty good SWAG because the average age of cars is about 12 years now, so even if the prices drop dramatically it will still be a while until some folks change over. Too, in other countries it will be slower because they just have less money.


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