# mpg vs batteries/year



## Ziggythewiz (May 16, 2010)

Except that your assumption is based on a 50 mpg car. How many of those are there? How much does it cost?

The best part of DIY is you can do it with any car you want, but I wouldn't even consider converting a functioning car getting more than 30 mpg.

Also, talking about the volkswagon 1 liter concept is just silly. There are cars just as practical that run on pure solar, for a lifetime fuel cost of $0.


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## muffildy (Oct 11, 2011)

i did mention that there arent any 50 mpg cars in the usa; 44 is the best - non hybrid. many european cars get 60+mpg but dont get sold in the usa because they dont meet crash spec.


Anyhow, as far as where this is going...
imagine a tiny engine car, with a tiny battery supply HEV that uses the electric part mainly for acceleration, recharging it when the car is up to speed. Like a prius, except modified for high mpg instead of super performance - acceleration would be something like 0-60 in 18 seconds instead of like 9 or 10, but mpg should be much higher since the engine is smaller.


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## Sunking (Aug 10, 2009)

Ziggythewiz said:


> Except that your assumption is based on a 50 mpg car. How many of those are there? How much does it cost?


Actually quite a few, just the EPA (our government) ban them from entering the US market.

The Honda Accord TDI is an excellent example which I have waited for about 5 years now. It is widely available in Europe and Japan. Every time Honda tries to release it in the USA, the EPA changes diesel emission standards to block it and others like it. Europe and Japan have quite a few diesel passenger vehicles that get 50 mpg or better. Even Ford makes one, but not here.

Who in their right mind would want something like a Honda Accord with sport car handling and luxury comfort that gets 50 mpg? Can you imagine the horror, panic, and fear that would cause if US citizens when they realize it is possible?


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## Sunking (Aug 10, 2009)

muffildy said:


> I was looking at various EV conversions online and found a lot of people get around 150w/mile


Do not think that is a real number to assume, more like 300 to 400 wh/mile is realistic and difficult to achieve for DIY. Heck my golf cart only gets 200 wh/mile.

Tesla Roadster is the most efficient I know of and it is around the 160 wh/mile, Nissan Leaf I think is around 400 wh/mile.


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## muffildy (Oct 11, 2011)

that just means all electric is that much more expensive for that particular range requirement.

*edit*
actually, if it really is 300w/mi for most conversions i cant imagine why anyone would want to do it, it would cost a fortune! unless your daily commute was pretty short...in which case your gas bill would be correspondingly also small so less incentive for conversion there as well.

So 300w/mi math

If we directly cut the range by half, to 50 mi then we can keep the same numbers, still a cost of 11700$ per 8 years, or if you really needed that range 23400$.

range on a gas is largely irrelevent to the calculation since you just refill....so its cost would still be 9900$ per 8 years as long as you still averaged 15000 miles a year.


Anyhow, what do yall think of tiny engine, tiny battery pack, booster electric idea?


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## dtbaker (Jan 5, 2008)

Sunking said:


> Do not think that is a real number to assume, more like 300 to 400 wh/mile is realistic and difficult to achieve for DIY. Heck my golf cart only gets 200 wh/mile.
> 
> Tesla Roadster is the most efficient I know of and it is around the 160 wh/mile, Nissan Leaf I think is around 400 wh/mile.



there is a big difference between consumption from the battery pack, and what you have to put in from the wall... counting losses from charger. I still do think that a very strong case can be made for a Li pack having a lower cost/mile over its life than gasoline at a price of $3.50/gallon in an apples-apples vehicle.

take a peek at numbers on my website in the operational cost page, and feel free to comment....


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## Guest (Oct 23, 2011)

The Leaf is actually more like 250 wh per mile average and that is right in line with many DIY conversions either DC or AC drive. Cost to drive 75 miles average for the Leaf is like $2. 

I did a cost for fuel in my 20 mile per gallon SUV. 

150,000 miles = 7,500 gallons of fuel and at $3.50 per gallon will cost you a whopping $26,250 bucks just for fuel alone. 

My Leaf using the average 75 miles per charge and $2.50 per charge will cost me a whopping $5,000 bucks. That is a $20,150 dollar savings over the same time and mileage. So if I need to replace the pack at that time I am sure I will have plenty of saved money to do so. Plus I have not polluted or supported the middle east in the oil wars and all that environmental stuff. Which I fully support anyway. 

Do a conversion your self and save even more. You may not have the same distance but if you use lithium you will go the same distance and the cost for our lithium cells is cheap compared to just the cost of gasoline alone. 

Sure a good diesel car may get 50 mpg but your still supporting the middle east and the war machine and polluting. Use bio or SOV and your on the right track. Still not ideal but on the right track. Electric is better. I have an 01 TDI Beetle and love it but it actually sits gathering dust. 

So in the end I do not mind paying the higher cost for the vehicle. In the end it is still cheaper to go electric. You just can't beat electric for good powerful clean fun.


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## dougingraham (Jul 26, 2011)

If you drive 15000 miles per year and get 30mpg you use 500 gallons of gas. Assume $4 per gallon and you have $2000 per year cost. You also have 5 oil changes at $30 each and that costs !150. Yearly cost for stuff you dont need in an EV is $2150.

If you drive 15000 miles a year that is a daily average of 41.1 miles. If you get 250wh/mile that means you need a battery with 10.3kwh. If you want that 5000 cycles Winston claims you need to over size it so that 41 miles is only 70%. That means a 14.7kwh pack. The cost of such a pack is when all is said and done is around $6391 (2.30wh/$). Cost of electricity is around $0.1 per kwh. Assuming 90% efficiency that 10.25kwh becomes 11.39kwh and costs $1.139 per day. Per year its $415.74.

Difference per year is $2150 - $416 = $1734

Batteries are payed for from fuel cost difference in 3 years 8 months. If you extend that out to 14 years which is the life of the battery then you make $17885 above the cost of the batteries. That would pay for all of the rest of the parts of the conversion. And at the end of that 14 years the electric components will be obsolete but still functional. The car will still drive but will only have 80% of the range it had when the batteries are new.

The trick is not overbuying your battery pack by too much. If you know what your mission is and size the pack accordingly the payback is much faster. It is difficult to wrap your head around the range anxiety thing and you tend to try to put too much battery in the car. I am a perfect example of this. I need to go 12 miles per day. I measured this over a 28 day period. I bought a pack that will take me 60 miles at a 70% DOD. My payoff time is 8 years because the car I drive gets such wretched mileage (14mpg). So this is still a good deal for me. My 14 year payback will pay for the batteries, motor and motor controller. Will I be driving this car in 14 years? I don't know. But I do know that the motor will need brushes and maybe bearings and the other stuff will most likely still be good so it could be placed in another donor.

I am certain that gas is going to go up. The population of China and India and their desire for cars makes this inevitable.


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## muffildy (Oct 11, 2011)

I dont believe lithium will last 14 years, atleast not at the capacity necessary for them to be useful. The Volt which uses a lithium pack only rates it as lasting 8 years. I have heard that regardless of whether they are being used or not they lose 2-10% of their capacity each year. If they are being used then your limited to a certain cycle limit which is better at lower C draw, but usually stuck at around only 2000-3000 for a 80%DoD. 

15000 miles may equate to 41 miles a day, but for me, my daily commute is actually 60 miles (30 each way). So i would need a pack that could get me atleast 60 miles - but then if you figure in acceleration energy costs i think an estimate of a 100 mile pack for my 60 mile daily commute isnt too far off.
So, i can only get 44 mpg in the usa for various reasons:
15000*8/44 * = 2727gal *4$ = 10900$ over 8 yr, plus standard maintinance i didnt include last time - 150*8 its 12100$
vs
15000*8*300w/1000 = 36000kw* .1$ = 3600$ plus cost of batteries of 9900 to 19800$ so it would cost 13500$ (50mi range) or 23400$ (100mi range)
So since my commute is 60 miles i would depending on acceleration drain factor probably need the 100mi pack - does anyone know if the 300w/mi figure is a 50mph steady or if its inclusive of acceleration drain and averaged?

Ive read articles online about pollution of energy, the grid is only 50% efficient, and if you plug in the ineficiencies of the motor/wiring etc from grid to wheels your going to be getting around 40% efficiency. So pollution wise it isnt a whole lot better unless we start building more nuclear power/solar power/geothermal power etc clean energy plants.
Would be nice if we could get the batteries of the future right now...


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## IamIan (Mar 29, 2009)

There is no universal and accurate comparison or answer ... the specifics of a specific context will determine the results ... sometimes the BEV is cheaper sometimes it isn't ... it will completely depend on the specifics of a given context.



muffildy said:


> does anyone know if the 300w/mi figure is a 50mph steady or if its inclusive of acceleration drain and averaged?


MPG & wh/mile both fall in the YMMV category... even for the same vehicle ... even more so from different vehicles.



Up hill more energy than down hill
Head Wind vs Tail wind
Cold air vs Hot Air
Low Air Pressure vs high Air Pressure
Low or High Relative Humidity
Driving technique
etc.... etc...


Acceleration amount and frequency of fall into driving style / technique... some methods waste more energy than others... two different people both driving the same vehicle even over the same route ... can ( and often do ) get differences from each other... this happens weather it is MPG in an ICE or Wh/Mile in a BEV.

For example a 2010 Toyota Prius:


Steady State Condition of:
40 deg F, 16 PSI Air pressure, 0% Relative Humidity, Traveling at 60 MPH, With a 10 MPH Head Wind, Running 0.01 Crr Tires, a 220 lb driver, going up just a 3 degree incline.
compared to same vehicle and driver
Steady State Condition of:
70 deg F, 14 PSI Air Pressure, 20% Relative Humidity, Traveling at 50 MPH, with a 10 MPH Tail Wind, Running 0.01 Crr Tires, a 220 Lb Driver, going up a 0 Degree incline.
The First set of conditions uses 253% more energy per mile ( 3.53x as much ) than the second set of conditions ... even for the exactly same vehicle and driver ... doesn't matter if it is MPG ICE or wh/Mile BEV.


A specific amount of watts of power will give an acceleration curve for a specific vehicle under specific conditions ... the same amount of power will also yield a steady state speed under state state conditions... there is no difference to the batteries weather the same amount of power is used for steady state or for acceleration... from the batteries perspective power is power, no matter what it is used for.

Not all batteries react the same to various power demands or loads ... A123 cells for example have a much lower Peukert k value than any Lead Acid battery you can buy... meaning how much ( if at all ) you size a battery for peak load varies significantly , depending on the specific battery you are using ... some batteries Peukert k values are low enough that no additional battery pack sizing is needed for peak loads... other battery types need significant amounts of sizing due to higher Peukert k values.



muffildy said:


> Ive read articles online about pollution of energy, the grid is only 50% efficient, and if you plug in the ineficiencies of the motor/wiring etc from grid to wheels your going to be getting around 40% efficiency.


If you want to take a step back away from the pump/plug ... the ICE takes a bigger hit than the BEV does.

The ICE Fuel distribution system is much much less energy efficient than the BEV Grid distribution system:

Just to list a few:


Energy to Pump Fuel at gas station
Energy to pump Fuel to Gas Station from delivery truck
Energy to drive delivery truck from storage depot to gas station
Energy to pump fuel into delivery truck at storage depot
Energy to pump fuel into storage depot
Energy to move fuel to storage depot from refinery
Energy to refine fuel 
( Oil Refineries Buy about ~40Twh of electricity from the grid every year... because what they generate themselves isn't enough to refine the oil ... and even for the refinery itself it is cheaper to buy grid electricity than to use the energy content of the oil they are refining for all their energy needs. )

You don't want to take the next step either ... because the ICE fuel still takes a bigger hit getting the oil to the refinery ( often times going 1/2 way around the world ) than the BEV Grid takes getting fuel to the power plant ... which often times does not take the refining hit the ICE fuel does ... unless you want to view the power plant as the refinery for electricity ... which is still more efficient than the oil refinery.



muffildy said:


> So pollution wise it isnt a whole lot better


It still depends on the specifics.

Using EIA published information about the US Grid in 2008 ... Using a 90% Efficient Charger and 90% cycle efficient batteries , with a 80% system efficiency from battery to wheels ... if the Conversion weighed the same as the original.

For the Toyota Prius 1st set of steady state driving conditions I listed above previously:
The Regular ICE Prius would have to get better than 38 MPG from 100% gasoline to do better than the BEV conversion in CO2 emissions ... and better than 45 MPG for smog pollution emissions of the BEV conversion.

For the same vehicle but under the 2nd set of steady state conditions I listed above previously:
The regular ICE Prius would have to get better than 112 MPG to equal the CO2 Emission from a BEV conversion ... and better than 134 MPG to equal the smog emissions.

- - - - - 

Additionally the Electric Grid gets cleaner over time even for the same BEV ... an ICE does not for the same vehicle.

Over 10 years from 1998 to 2008:
~7% less CO2 per kwh
~49% less Sulfer Dioxides per kwh
~55% less Nitrous Oxides per kwh

And of course the Elephant in the that room is:
The BEV can optionally be charged and powered 100% of all of it's energy from RE / clean sources , such as solar, wind , etc ... which can be installed locally ... the ICE does not have that option.

- - - - - - 

What people pay per kwh of electricity and per gallon of fuel also varies significantly ... what one person pays might make it cost effective for him , but someone else paying different things it might not ... but the cost from the grid per kwh has historically over the last 10+ years been increasing far slower than the rate at which gasoline prices have been increasing.


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## Guest (Oct 23, 2011)

Leaf vs SUV

So lets break it down. You say 15000 miles per year. That breaks down to a 10 year life span. No argument there. This is for both vehicles. 

The battery is not part of the fuel tank either with this time frame. It can be considered part of the drive train. 8 year guarantee on the battery so no different than a cars or SUV's engine system. 

In my case both vehicles cost nearly the same. So that factor is out the door. 

SUV fuel cost per year then would be: $2,635 dollars and that is conservative at $3 per gallon. 
Leaf electricity cost per year would be: $500 bucks being conservative at 70 miles per charge and $2.50 per charge. 

You also don't know if your engine will last 10 years any more than you will know if the battery will last. So thats out the window. Do you know how much it would cost to replace the engine? No but I can assure you it won't be even close to cheap. 

The other issue is cost for keeping the engine in top condition during the 10 years.
For the Leaf, we do not know the actual cost of maintaining but from past history the price is negligible. 

So after a 10 year life I will have saved on fuel alone $21 grand. Enough to almost go buy another one. Can't say that for owning the SUV. I'd be lucky to get just from selling it $3k after 10 years. 

As for upkeep of the tires and a few other items it would be the same for any vehicle. If the car were still good after 10 years and then I decided to get another battery pack I could do that and do a new interior and paint job and be good to go for another 10 years or more. Or I could junk the car for recycling and keep the battery with its lower capacity and put it to use in my solar back up array for another 10 or more years. I'd still have saved enough to go buy another one because I am quite sure by then the prices will have dropped and the cost come down. I'd be ahead no matter what. 

Don't go by what is right in front of you. That is how we became a throwaway society. We want cheap now. Guess what, you got it. In the end it was not cheap. 


On top of all this my electricity cost is negated by the SOLAR panels we have on the roof.


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## dtbaker (Jan 5, 2008)

muffildy said:


> I dont believe lithium will last 14 years, atleast not at the capacity necessary for them to be useful. The Volt which uses a lithium pack only rates it as lasting 8 years. I have heard that regardless of whether they are being used or not they lose 2-10% of their capacity each year. If they are being used then your limited to a certain cycle limit which is better at lower C draw, but usually stuck at around only 2000-3000 for a 80%DoD.


where did you read these 'facts'?

First, I don't think there is ANY actual cycle life testing under 'real' conditions. The large format prismatics simply have not been around long enough to know! Being a mechanical battery more than chemical, I still don't see the mechanism that 'wears them out' being anything other than high heat from overcharge or high C discharge heat damaging the electrolyte eventually.

Second, the Volt uses very different batteries than most of us are... and that number for the life of the pack I would say they pulled out of the air as a 'safe' limit to warranty not knowing what the life will actually be.

Third, same for specced cycle life of the prismatics. As I said before, they have not been around long enough to put on 3000+ cycles at various DOD under different driving conditions (varying amp draw). These numbers are just what the OEM is willing to warranty with whatever level of thermal management and cell-balance for dummys they have been able to build in.



muffildy said:


> does anyone know if the 300w/mi figure is a 50mph steady or if its inclusive of acceleration drain and averaged?


assuming you meant watt-hrs/mile not just watts  thats not a bad number for 'inclusive' urban/suburban stop and go with occasional 45-50 mph stretches. Steady state 50 mph on flat road is a lot less in a reasonably aero vehicle.




muffildy said:


> if you plug in the ineficiencies of the motor/wiring etc from grid to wheels your going to be getting around 40% efficiency. So pollution wise it isnt a whole lot better


electric generation pollution depends on the fuel mix of course, and grid efficiency depends on transmission distance as well. In NM, our biggest power plants are hundreds of miles from population concentration, and our nuclear power comes all the way from AZ! Most utilities in the country are 'supposed' to be 20% renewable by 2020, so that will help. Second is that the coal/gas pollution might have close to the same CO2, but it has been scrubbed of most other stuff car exhaust kicks out AND is localized away from most population centers. 

Lastly..... It improves the payback on an EV AND a PV system if you install your own panels to offset your use! We shouldn't ramp up EV production past the capacity added with renewable energy....


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## JRP3 (Mar 7, 2008)

dtbaker said:


> wBeing a mechanical battery more than chemical, I still don't see the mechanism that 'wears them out' being anything other than high heat.


Well the electrolyte does degrade over time, more so at higher and lower SOC extremes, independent of temperature, and there is some plating that eventually reduces capacity. If you could shallow cycle your pack between 30-70% SOC you'd probably get over 10,000 cycles, as A123 has shown. That said even 2500 cycles on a 50 mile pack cycled at 40 miles average is 100,000 miles.


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## dtbaker (Jan 5, 2008)

JRP3 said:


> Well the electrolyte does degrade over time, more so at higher and lower SOC extremes, independent of temperature, and there is some plating that eventually reduces capacity. If you could shallow cycle your pack between 30-70% SOC you'd probably get over 10,000 cycles, as A123 has shown. That said even 2500 cycles on a 50 mile pack cycled at 40 miles average is 100,000 miles.



yeah, I think the wheels will fall off the car before the batteries are done in my Swift.  I rarely take them below 50% DOD, and my 1221 controller is incapable of more than 3C burst and 2C sustained.


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## JRP3 (Mar 7, 2008)

Yeah, I expect to upgrade my pack someday not because it wears out but because I want something newer and better. Then I'll either sell the old pack or use it for backup storage and maybe power use time shifting to leverage my dual rate billing structure. Run the fridge, TV, and computer from the pack during the day and recharge it at night. If I didn't live in the woods I'd use it for solar storage.


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## muffildy (Oct 11, 2011)

http://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/how_to_prolong_lithium_based_batteries

This article seems to explain the permanent capacity loss that lithium ion batteries experience.
Copied here is the table:
*Battery Temperature*​ *Permanent capacity loss when
stored at 40% state-of-charge
*(recommended storage charge level)​ *Permanent capacity loss when
stored at 100% state-of-charge
*(typical user charge level)​ *0°C*​ *25°C*​ *40°C*​ *60°C*​ 2% loss in 1 year; 98% remaining​ 4% loss in 1 year; 96% remaining​ 15% loss in 1 year; 85% remaining​ 25% loss in 1 year 75%; remaining​ 6% loss in 1 year; 94% remaining​ 20% loss in 1 year; 80% remaining​ 35% loss in 1 year; 65% remaining​ 40% loss in 3 months

So, Lets assume you charge the car once per day in your garage at 0 deg celcius, it will fully charge in 3-5 hours, and then sit there for another 12 hours before you use it. So you would experience somewhere between 2 and 6% loss of capacity per year if you live in a cold state.
I live in florida, its hot, i expect in the summer the battery pack will experience atleast the 25 deg C for atleast part of the time. Which would be 4 to 20% loss in a year.
So, lets say i lose an average of (20-4)/2 =8% permanent in 1 year.
That would give the battery a life of 8 years before i have lost 64% of its capacity and would no longer be able to drive far enough on the pack.
From what ive also read, DoD doesnt affect cyclelife as much as this does - so i could use a 80mi ah pack with 90% dod i would have 72 mi range, and then a loss of 8% per year would mean in 2 years i would have only a 60 mile range, 3 and i wouldnt be able to do my commute at all on battery only.

So, i think for me, that diesel is the way to go for the primary power of the car - secondary is the electric acting as a performance enhancer mainly.
That way when lithium batteries become cheaper the car will be ready for them.
An example would be a car powered by 14hp diesel engine that gets 200g/hph. heres a calculator to get the HP for speed: 
http://www.wallaceracing.com/Calculate HP For Speed.php
Assuming the car uses 7.5 hp in perfect driving conditions at 50 mph that would be (7.5*200) = 1500 g, approx 3200g per gallon so .47 gal/hour at 50 mph thats 50/.47 = 106 mpg. Thats of course assuming 100% engine to wheels conversion - until its build i wont know for sure. Im betting i will lose 10%, so i would possibly get 95 mpg.
There are cars out there that supposedly follow this idea - the XR3 is an example, advertises 125 mpg.
Now of course acceleration time with such a vehicle would be pretty poor; using this calculator http://www.web-cars.com/math/accel2.pl a 1600# car rear wheel drive 14hp doesnt even get to 60mph in 1/4 mile (28 seconds) so adding in the electric motor/small battery pack would give it the HP required to get 0-60 in 15-20 or so seconds.


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## rwaudio (May 22, 2008)

Now if you found some info on LiFePO4 cells instead of traditional Lithium Ion (laptop style cells) or Li-Po cells then you might have some useful information. You can't simply borrow information from a different chemistry and assume the discharge/life cycle information is the same just because they are both "Lithium".


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## muffildy (Oct 11, 2011)

best i can find is that lithium iron phosphate decay after 1 year would make its energy density equal to lithium cobalt. what that translates to in an actual percentage loss per year i dont know.
It also has a higher temperature rating.


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## JRP3 (Mar 7, 2008)

Lithium Cobalt cells have higher specific energy density than LiFePO4 cells to begin with. LiFePO4 cells have higher cycle life than LiCo cells and will last longer.


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## muffildy (Oct 11, 2011)

yea thats part of what makes it so confusing
I assume it means vs cobalt after 1 year, the question is then at what percent they degraded the cobalt.
ive also seen different listings for the kw/kg some say cobalt has a lot more, others just a little bit.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_batteries
this wiki says lithium cobalt has .518 kwh/kg and lithium iron phosphate has .495 kwh/kg.
So if you degrade the cobalt by 10% its .4662 and the lithium iron phosphate by 6% its .4653 which makes the statement true, but it could also be true at a lot of other percent degredations.


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## JRP3 (Mar 7, 2008)

That looks like theoretical energy, not real world. Real world LiFePO4 is around 110 watt hours/kg, or .110kwh/kg, and the new Panasonic LiCo cells that Tesla will be using in their Model S are 260 wh/kg, or .260kwh/kg.
This can all vary somewhat with different cell construction.


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## muffildy (Oct 11, 2011)

so anyone here have a lithium iron phosphate pack that they tested the capacity of 1 or more years ago and can tell us what its capacity is now?


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## Guest (Oct 23, 2011)

Jack Rickard is the one to ask. http://www.projectooc.com/evtv/ Bottom left you will find a link to his email. Ask him. He has the best equipment and most likely the best to get you accurate information. He has been driving for may years now with lithium and no BMS system on any of his vehicles. So far he has seen no degradation of capacity on his packs. Last I know. So ask him.


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## Guest (Oct 23, 2011)

An article that came out earlier about a guy in Japan with over 10,000 miles and no degradation of capacity on his pack even after many FAST charge cycles. It is considered equal to about a years worth of driving. They do not use LiFePO4 either. So if those cells are alive and well I feel that they will perform very well. Im happy with my Leaf and it's performance. If there was going to be any significant degradation you'd expect to see some even in a year. So far none seen. This was Nissan testing too. That is good.


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## muffildy (Oct 11, 2011)

no luck on a response from that guy linked.
No one here converted a couple of years ago that could tell me how much capacity they lost?


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## dtbaker (Jan 5, 2008)

I dunno how you'd measure capacity without running them down deep into the knee to some known voltage. I don't wanna ever go that deep just for testing.  somewhere down the line I guess if my low-voltage warning comes on at less than 40 miles I'll know I have lost capcity.... until then, I'll try just to be nice to my batteries.....


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## muffildy (Oct 11, 2011)

i guess it depends on what battery you got
if it was the headways it would only cost 20$ to pull one out of the pack and replace it with a brand new one and get the old one tested.


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## tomofreno (Mar 3, 2009)

My 180Ah CALB cells are nominal 180*3.2 = 576Wh and 5.6 kg, so about 103 Wh/kg. I have about 2 years and a bit under 14k miles on my pack, but have never done a careful discharge to measure capacity. All I can say as I can still drive the same 65 mile round trip with the same DoD. I've noticed no change in capacity, but it could have changed by a few percent and I wouldn't notice.


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## PhantomPholly (Aug 20, 2008)

This is really the same question I asked in my thread about State of the Art.

From that thread, a good "rule of thumb" for batteries is that 8KwHrs is approximately equal to 1 gallon of gas for propulsive purposes for similar cars of roughly equivalent gross weight. Use a small enough pack and the EV will be lighter than the equivalent ICE car, but have a very short range. Increasing the range will make the vehicle heavier much quicker than extra gasoline, reducing performance and range.

8KwHrs of "State of the Art" batteries are roughly between 25-30 times heavier than 1 gallon of gasoline (6 lbs). Lead is heavier yet.


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## muffildy (Oct 11, 2011)

Actually im trying to find the relative cost of batteries over a period of time vs mpg. Which does have some tie ins with weight and the kwh capacity etc. So far earlier in the thread we found the w/mi and plugged in numbers to compare the two using a necessary range that a lot of drivers on the road dont need - but i do.
The main problem now is how fast to depreciate the value of the lithium iron phosphate cells. On another forum some people reported 3 year old cells which were not tested originally to now have 9.5/9.6 ah out of the rated 10ah which would be a 1.33 to 1.66% depreciation per year which is really really good if its true since that would make a 10+year without needing to replace the batteries a real possibility. Of course for now a pack with the range i need is still far too much money, it would definatly be something to invest in as the cost goes down and of course how much money i have available.


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## PhantomPholly (Aug 20, 2008)

muffildy said:


> Actually im trying to find the relative cost of batteries over a period of time vs mpg. Which does have some tie ins with weight and the kwh capacity etc. So far earlier in the thread we found the w/mi and plugged in numbers to compare the two using a necessary range that a lot of drivers on the road dont need - but i do.


That really depends on your "solution." The batteries from the company I linked above promises about 5,000 cycles to 100% dead. That's about 15 years of driving, with the downside that you cannot really increase your range above what you project.

Using LiIon, you can change the years formula by oversizing your pack. Again depends on the make and chemistry, but there is a tipping point where if you don't exceed a certain amount of capacity you get optimum lifetime cycles - otherwise, all bets are off.



> The main problem now is how fast to depreciate the value of the lithium iron phosphate cells. On another forum some people reported 3 year old cells which were not tested originally to now have 9.5/9.6 ah out of the rated 10ah which would be a 1.33 to 1.66% depreciation per year which is really really good if its true since that would make a 10+year without needing to replace the batteries a real possibility.


But it's not necessarily linear. It may drop 1% / yr for the first three years; 5% / yr for three more, then roll over and die. It's a much more difficult problem than "light bulbs," which have exactly the same chance of quitting every day.



> Of course for now a pack with the range i need is still far too much money, it would definatly be something to invest in as the cost goes down and of course how much money i have available.


That's why I suggested building the car first, then worrying about batteries. Whatever is "best" now will change.

Good luck!


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## JRP3 (Mar 7, 2008)

PhantomPholly said:


> But it's not necessarily linear. It may drop 1% / yr for the first three years; 5% / yr for three more, then roll over and die. It's a much more difficult problem than "light bulbs," which have exactly the same chance of quitting every day.


Most of the LiFePO4 cycle graphs I've seen show a fairly linear drop, with a slight increase in capacity for the first 50 or so cycles, while a recent graph that Jack Rickard posted of the Panasonic cells Tesla will be using next year actually showed slower capacity loss after you hit 70% of original capacity.
Graph: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-LKw9FUF4F...CQQ/WNtlxyRIBQY/s1600/+PANASONICCYCLELIFE.jpg


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## PhantomPholly (Aug 20, 2008)

JRP3 said:


> Most of the LiFePO4 cycle graphs I've seen show a fairly linear drop, with a slight increase in capacity for the first 50 or so cycles, while a recent graph that Jack Rickard posted of the Panasonic cells Tesla will be using next year actually showed slower capacity loss after you hit 70% of original capacity.
> Graph: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-LKw9FUF4F...CQQ/WNtlxyRIBQY/s1600/+PANASONICCYCLELIFE.jpg


Great chart. Is there reason to believe that it will continue a linear decline, or is there a "dropoff point?" Maybe they just haven't been around long enough to know.


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## JRP3 (Mar 7, 2008)

I've actually been talking to a battery researcher trying to get an idea if there is a point where calender life becomes more of an issue than cycle life. For example with the Tesla Model S 300 mile pack and that discharge curve a 200 mile average cycle would give at least 2600 cycles which would come out to 520,000 miles. At even 20,000 miles a year that's 26 years!


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## dtbaker (Jan 5, 2008)

JRP3 said:


> I've actually been talking to a battery researcher trying to get an idea if there is a point where calender life becomes more of an issue than cycle life. For example with the Tesla Model S 300 mile pack and that discharge curve a 200 mile average cycle would give at least 2600 cycles which would come out to 520,000 miles. At even 20,000 miles a year that's 26 years!



Its even interesting at the other end of the spectrum with a $5k battery pack, max range 50 miles, but if normal use is 50% DOD, getting 3000 to 5000 cycles of 20 miles, which wears out first.... hte batteries, or the whole rest of the car!?



d


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## IamIan (Mar 29, 2009)

JRP3 said:


> I've actually been talking to a battery researcher trying to get an idea if there is a point where calender life becomes more of an issue than cycle life. For example with the Tesla Model S 300 mile pack and that discharge curve a 200 mile average cycle would give at least 2600 cycles which would come out to 520,000 miles. At even 20,000 miles a year that's 26 years!




As long as calendar life is a small enough influence ... I think it is nice that the batteries might reasonably have that kind of service life.

Also it will be interesting to see how that pans out in real life conditions ... But it is nice to see what at least preliminarily looks like significant on going progess ... considering the NiMH battery pack from the ~10 year old Rav4-EV was tested before release to give ~80% original capacity after 300,000 miles and in 2008 there were still hundreds of them on the road ... it is nice to see in ~10 years a EV battery pack with a reasonably estimated about ~60% more service life , while at the same time about 3x the energy density per kg, and lower self discharge rates .... yup that is nice progress to see.



I wonder how long the rate of progress is sustainable? ... How long it will be before we see tapering off ??? only time will tell , I guess... but in the mean time ... nice progress so far.


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## b13bliss (Oct 3, 2009)

The only problem i have with electric cars is that the "gas tank" is REALLY expensive, takes ten hours to fill, only holds one or two gallons, and eventually will need to be replaced. Other than that, they're great!

Calculate the cost of the actual battries you use (or plan to use) assuming that you will get every cycle the manufacturer claims and turn it into cost per mile based on a reasonable wh/mile. Now add the cost per mile of electricity including all loses from "wall to wheel." Just on those two items, I kept arriving at around 8 cents per mile for batteries and 4.5 cents for electricity. 13.5 cents per mile just on the juice. Since my current car gets 57mpg average (diesel jetta), my costs for everything from registration to insurance, fuel, tires, oil changes, depreciation, and other general repairs ( I do them myself) comes out to 12.8 cents per mile. 

I still want to do an electric hybrid of some sort, but I have to do it as a luxury, not as a way to save money.


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## Guest (Nov 17, 2011)

Just wait until you have to replace that real expensive turbo diesel engine. You will be singing a different tune then. Forget to replace that timing belt ON TIME and you will be singin a whole lot sooner. Yes, the TDI gets a whole lot better mileage than the average Hybrid and is still in the running as a viable vehicle with excellent mileage. I have one. I also have the Leaf. My TDI just sits getting dirty and I am just hoping that the mice don't decide to move in. They will eventually. 

However if you calculate on the average gasoline vehicles mileage a 20 mpg vehicle will require you to feed it with $26,000 bucks worth of fuel alone during the first 150,000 miles of driving at todays prices. I am sure I can find a new battery pack if needed in there somewhere because it only costs $8,000 to feed the electric Leaf. 

Nice thing is that after 150,000 miles I don't have a stinky smelly out of tune worn out gas/diesel engine either that needs at minimum an overhaul to freshen it up. I don't have the oil changes or other things like that that need replaced either. I do have things that need looked at and maybe changed but much fewer than the gasoline vehicle. I also have far less parts to worry about busting. 

I am sure I will still come out smelling like a rose in the end.


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## dougingraham (Jul 26, 2011)

b13bliss said:


> The only problem i have with electric cars is that the "gas tank" is REALLY expensive, takes ten hours to fill, only holds one or two gallons, and eventually will need to be replaced. Other than that, they're great!
> 
> Calculate the cost of the actual battries you use (or plan to use) assuming that you will get every cycle the manufacturer claims and turn it into cost per mile based on a reasonable wh/mile. Now add the cost per mile of electricity including all loses from "wall to wheel." Just on those two items, I kept arriving at around 8 cents per mile for batteries and 4.5 cents for electricity. 13.5 cents per mile just on the juice. Since my current car gets 57mpg average (diesel jetta), my costs for everything from registration to insurance, fuel, tires, oil changes, depreciation, and other general repairs ( I do them myself) comes out to 12.8 cents per mile.
> 
> I still want to do an electric hybrid of some sort, but I have to do it as a luxury, not as a way to save money.


We only have a few more years at most in the US where this will be true. In only a handful of places in the world is the price of the fuel so low that the advantage isn't already on the EV side. And it is only true today if you exclude the price of the vehicle. The fact that the world oil supply is already at the point of decline and demand is increasing from the 2+ billion new drivers coming online in China and India and it is pretty much undeniable that cheap gasoline/diesel prices are over. The governments could reduce fuel taxes (if they weren't already in trouble financially) to maintain the current prices and push this off a couple more years but it will catch up.

Forget doing a hybrid vehicle. They are the worst of both worlds. The big guys with huge engineering teams and budgets have trouble getting them right and the price will always be worse than a pure ICE or a pure EV.

Look at your mission. Convert a car that you love without over buying the batteries and even at fuel prices today it is a good deal.


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## b13bliss (Oct 3, 2009)

gottdi said:


> Just wait until you have to replace that real expensive turbo diesel engine. You will be singing a different tune then. Forget to replace that timing belt ON TIME and you will be singin a whole lot sooner. Yes, the TDI gets a whole lot better mileage than the average Hybrid and is still in the running as a viable vehicle with excellent mileage. I have one. I also have the Leaf. My TDI just sits getting dirty and I am just hoping that the mice don't decide to move in. They will eventually.
> 
> However if you calculate on the average gasoline vehicles mileage a 20 mpg vehicle will require you to feed it with $26,000 bucks worth of fuel alone during the first 150,000 miles of driving at todays prices. I am sure I can find a new battery pack if needed in there somewhere because it only costs $8,000 to feed the electric Leaf.
> 
> ...


I really do like the Leaf. I would own one if I could afford it within a reasonable set of priorities. But until recently I had an 80 mile round trip commute through cold winters which would really tax any electric car. I think your TDI would get used in that situation and the Leaf get used for the small stuff. A BEV means two cars and all related expenses.

Granted ICE powered cars are stinkier than electric. For the same price and capabilities, I think nearly everyone would prefer a BEV. But they don't have the same price or capabilities, so to each their own. I want to be able to drive 100 miles without needing to borrow someones car or waiting 10 hours halfway. So a BEV means needing two cars (and a truck to haul my 6000lb work trailer) so I do see it as an added expense in my situation. And it is more expensive to purchase, own ,and operate for me than my current car.

If I drive my Jetta a million miles, the cost for purchase, upkeep, overhauls, etc will never equal the purchase price of a Leaf and probably will never equal the cost of a Leaf battery. Just sayin. But I would still enjoy having one


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## b13bliss (Oct 3, 2009)

dougingraham said:


> We only have a few more years at most in the US where this will be true. In only a handful of places in the world is the price of the fuel so low that the advantage isn't already on the EV side. And it is only true today if you exclude the price of the vehicle. The fact that the world oil supply is already at the point of decline and demand is increasing from the 2+ billion new drivers coming online in China and India and it is pretty much undeniable that cheap gasoline/diesel prices are over. The governments could reduce fuel taxes (if they weren't already in trouble financially) to maintain the current prices and push this off a couple more years but it will catch up.
> 
> Forget doing a hybrid vehicle. They are the worst of both worlds. The big guys with huge engineering teams and budgets have trouble getting them right and the price will always be worse than a pure ICE or a pure EV.
> 
> Look at your mission. Convert a car that you love without over buying the batteries and even at fuel prices today it is a good deal.


You make a good point. If fuel goes up to $10/gal and electricity stays relatively flat, that would definately affect my thinking. My draw to a plug-in hybrid, is an attempt to be able to use whatever fuel is most cost effective, but I acknowledge the difficulties.

I like your comments about not overbuying batteries. Since my usual commute now is only about 15mi round trip, I may have to rethink what sort of investment it would take to go electric. Maybe the lithium batteries really last 20 years and tens of thousands of cycles with a liveable decrease in usefullness. If that is the case, I would feel that I needlessly missed out over battery life concerns. However, all our experience with batteries so far is that they wear out no matter what they're made of. Also, many EV'ers have had they're expensive battery packs go POOF, so that is another fear if the experiment is based purely on economics. I can fix a blown engine relatively inexpensively, but I have no idea how to fix a bad battery pack.


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## Guest (Nov 18, 2011)

> EV'ers have had they're expensive battery packs go POOF


Who and when? 



> I can fix a blown engine relatively inexpensively,


Well maybe an old VW or V8 engine but surely not a modern engine. 

The cost to replace a worn out modern engine is nearly what you'd spend for a battery pack. Remember most folks can't fix an engine. Let alone change a spark plug. 

So what does it cost to own a vehicle for 15 years and 150,000 miles? Speaking of a modern vehicle and one that gets around 20 mpg which is nearly average. Just fuel alone for the life of the vehicle is $26,000 bucks. So you spend $26,000 to buy it and then spend another $26,000 to feed it. That is $52,000 just to buy and feed and does not include financing which most will do. My Leaf is cheaper. Even if I paid $36,000 for my Leaf I'd pay around $8,000 to feed it over 150,000 miles. That is $44,000. That is $8,000 cheaper. I am quite sure I could afford to rent a car every now and then to take care of my gas vehicle needs. 

I would expect my gas engine and system to last the life of the vehicle pretty much and I would expect the same for my batteries and motor/controller. Things do happen that you don't expect. Gas or electric. So there is no way to calculate that into the equation. 

Now if you purchased a TDI then the cost issue changes but if you buy the TDI new the cost is still quite expensive. Diesel cars are not cheap. Neither are the cheap to repair or replace. I know. 

Being a mechanic I can do and save a bundle but for those who can't money is the only way to get it done. Transportation is not cheap like it used to be when cars were simple to build, buy and fix. Heck a good VW back in the day was $3k or less. Today its more like $30,000 for a decent VW. 

Now my post does not cover those cars that do get better than 20 mpg but I had to do an average. 

Pete 

In the end the cost to own an electric can be nearly or cheaper than a gasser. I am not talking about one you build one off but one you can go buy. So your choices in all electric cars are at this time very very limited. Like in reality, ONE.


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## b13bliss (Oct 3, 2009)

gottdi said:


> Who and when?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


My concern about the pack going POOF comes from a general observation of the EVs I've seen for sale where over half have unusable battery packs. I don't know if they actually went POOF  

I can rebuild a motor for less than the average person as a machinist with free access to a full blown race engine shop,but alas in 15 years of driving turbo diesels, I've never had one go bad.

I am curious about your wh/mi experience on your Leaf. I hear such a wide range on EVs in actual use. Also, I had heard discussion about Leaf batteries being a sort of lease item seperate from the car. Do you own your car outright like normal, or is there some sort of "lease" on the battery pack? Just curious after the wierd way GM marketed the EV1.


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## Guest (Nov 19, 2011)

Most of the old cars for sale have lead acid batteries and not lithium. Lead acid will typically last about 2 to 3 years. Life expectancy of lead acid is poor. That is what your seeing. As for POOF. No they are just worn out. Typically you get about 8000 miles with a lead acid pack. Some get more but many are just weak and mostly garbage with 8000 or less miles on a lead pack. I have nearly 5500 miles so far on my Leaf and no signs of getting less miles or weakening. Lithium is the way to go. 

I own my Leaf outright and I own the batteries. There is no leasing the batteries. That is just a pipe dream of some folks. I would never lease a battery nor would I do a battery swap program. When my car is worn out the battery pack should still be in excellent condition for a solar back up system for another 20 years. In a low output situation the cells should last for a very long time. When a pack is at 80% of its original capacity it is considered ready to change. It does not mean its dead. If I choose to continue to use the pack beyond that 80% I could drive the car for many more years if the lessened distance is acceptable. 

Pete


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## IamIan (Mar 29, 2009)

b13bliss said:


> If I drive my Jetta a million miles, the cost for purchase, upkeep, overhauls, etc will never equal the purchase price of a Leaf and probably will never equal the cost of a Leaf battery. Just sayin.


Are you being serious? 
Or is this million miles an exaggeration for some reason?

Over the course of a million miles you would spend a lot for all those things added up ... I don't see how you calculated all that to be realistically under just the purchase price of a Leaf, much less just the Leaf's battery pack alone ... If you will even be able to run the Jeta a million miles ... the odds are against even making it that far... capping the total price at just the price of the Leaf's battery pack alone ... I don't see it... ???

I don't follow your math ... Could you please expand / explain?


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## Guest (Nov 19, 2011)

22,222.2222 Gallons of diesel at $4 a gallon conservative here in California which equates to $88,888.8888 for diesel fuel alone. 

The Leaf calculated at $2.50 per 75 miles equates to $33,333.333 for the same mileage of a million miles. 


That is a savings with the electric car of $55,555.555 for fuel alone. I am quite sure I could find a few new battery packs in there if any would be needed and still beat out the Diesel vehicle. 

Remember this is for FUEL only. The Battery like the Diesel Engine is not part of the Fuel cost. 

Still don't know too many Diesel owners except big rigs who have logged over a million miles on an engine without replacing the engine. Even for a diesel it is not overly common to get those kind of miles out of one. It is possible but not likely. 

With a VW TDI you must also replace the timing belt and water pump every 80,000 miles too so that cost adds up to a pretty good chunk unless you have the knowledge tools and ability to do the job yourself so the engine lives a good long time. I have the tools and knowledge and it is not a fun job. I have done one complete timing belt replacement. To have someone else do that it will cost a cool $750 or better depending on where you go. So for a million miles that would be at least 12 timing belt changes and at $750 a pop that is another $9k over that million miles. 

Do the numbers. I was conservative with the numbers too. 

Do you really think your going to get a million miles out of your diesel engine? Can you really afford the diesel fuel for the next million miles? 

Pete


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## muffildy (Oct 11, 2011)

I doubt anyone is going to manage 1 million miles in less than 25 years of ownership, and even that is probably pushing it - most likely its a 30-40 years. in which case you would need possibly 2-3 replacement battery packs. The pack replacement cost would then be entirely dependent on the required distance to travel between charges. 
For example, currently the cheapest cells are around 400$/kwh
80 miles @ 400 wh/mi = 32kwh; 32kwh*400 = 12800$ replaced every 10 years thats 38400$ + the cost of the original DIY conversion or new leaf + the cost of electricity.
you stated 33,333$ as a possibility - so, rolling with that we get 71733.
Now the leaf costs MSRP 35200 minus the fed tax cut of 7500 so 27700$
So 40 years....99433 for the leaf; thats assuming you dont need to replace its electric motor which im betting wont last 40 years just like the diesel probably wont. but the diesel you can just grab a used one from a junkyard for cheap.
cost of gas is probably not going to be 4$ a gallon over the course of 40 years though, its a gamble right now as to when its going to get expensive. Also, the price of batteries is going to get cheaper with better manufacturing but there is a limited supply of lithium so it may not end up being cheaper once a lot of cars on the road are using it. As for right this moment in time, for the average person its probably cheaper to buy a used diesel car that gets good mpg than it is to buy a new car or DIY convert an old one. Of course as fuel prices go up, more people will buy electric, and that will possibly reduce the cost of manufacturing and so we might see a 15-20k electric available sometime, or some used ones for sale.
Right now i can find 40+ mpg cars used for only around 6k.


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## Guest (Nov 19, 2011)

I don't count the cost of the car. No way to ever recoup that cost and my needs for a vehicle are different. So it really is about cost over the life of the vehicle. I also will expect that during the next 25 years that there will be replacement motors for cheap compared to new. So I get the same benefit as you. In the end I will spend less on the Electric Car. As fuel prices go up the more I save. I have the added benefit of a fully solar powered home and use solar as my choice for charging my car. Not everyone will be able to benefit from solar so I just crunched numbers for those that must pay. 

I can get a used vehicle and the costs for feeding it will still remain the same. More for gas less for diesel and even less for electric. The cost of the batteries is included in the cost of the vehicle. If the batteries last me 12 years and I get a new or good used pack if needed I might even go another 12 years. I am also banking on new batteries being higher density and the same size factor so I can if needed get a new pack with lets say double the current capacity of the pack I have now. That would equate to another 25 years of usable power. This is of course if the life of the battery is as good as some are expecting. I expect that these will last a good long time. 

Pete


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## muffildy (Oct 11, 2011)

im thinking for most people its probably best economically to wait a few more years for used EVs to come to market and/or prices on batteries/motors to come down for a conversion. at this very moment its about equal cost wise if you rate it at a 10 year lifespan and 4$ a gal. 
The up front cost of a conversion or a new leaf is around 15-27k while the upfront cost of a used gas guzzling car could be as little as 2k. So i think most people are going to wait until they can get an EV for 10-15k used since most people dont have the DIY know-how to do their own conversion.

That being said i am working on a project at the moment, and will be make it diesel/electric hybrid so it will work for my needs at my price level and when prices go up (gas) or come down (batteries) i will be ready to take advantage.


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## JRP3 (Mar 7, 2008)

muffildy said:


> For example, currently the cheapest cells are around 400$/kwh
> 80 miles @ 400 wh/mi = 32kwh; 32kwh*400 = 12800$ replaced every 10 years thats 38400$ + the cost of the original DIY conversion or new leaf + the cost of electricity.
> you stated 33,333$ as a possibility - so, rolling with that we get 71733.
> Now the leaf costs MSRP 35200 minus the fed tax cut of 7500 so 27700$
> So 40 years....99433 for the leaf; thats assuming you dont need to replace its electric motor which im betting wont last 40 years just like the diesel probably wont.


A few problems here. 400 wh/mi is high, example the Leaf can do 80 miles in most situations with a 24kwh pack. 
As for the longevity of an electric motor, it only has two bearings that would need replacing to rebuild it as long as it was properly cooled, and some brushes if it's not AC, but it could easily last a lifetime with minor work.


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## muffildy (Oct 11, 2011)

kinda depends on your driving habits really.
its rated for 73 mi by the epa 5 cycle test, and 70 at 55 mph with AC. Now i know i sure dont drive at 55 mph on the highway (which is 50% of my trip). considering the difference between 65 mph and 55 mph in good driving conditions and a relatively flat road is around 40% more energy for the leafs weight & CdA; i would bet that at 65 mph with AC on its range would be 50 miles or 480 wh/mi.

anyone here know how long a typical induction or bldc motor will last? what kind of maintenance it will need? i know rewinding a motor will cost around 700$ as i was considering buying a cheap industrial motor, but im not sure when/why one would need to rewind one normally; obviously it gets done or i wouldnt have been able to find anyone capable of doing it.


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## spdas (Nov 28, 2009)

muffildy said:


> kinda depends on your driving habits really.
> its rated for 73 mi by the epa 5 cycle test, and 70 at 55 mph with AC. Now i know i sure dont drive at 55 mph on the highway (which is 50% of my trip). considering the difference between 65 mph and 55 mph in good driving conditions and a relatively flat road is around 40% more energy for the leafs weight & CdA; i would bet that at 65 mph with AC on its range would be 50 miles or 480 wh/mi.
> 
> anyone here know how long a typical induction or bldc motor will last? what kind of maintenance it will need? i know rewinding a motor will cost around 700$ as i was considering buying a cheap industrial motor, but im not sure when/why one would need to rewind one normally; obviously it gets done or i wouldnt have been able to find anyone capable of doing it.


 Leafs get better mileage than that at 65. My next door friend gets over 75 while running at 65 and no a/c. A/C is not as important even here in Hawaii as there is no ICE motor creating heat. 

Progress is in the solar and electric field. 3 years ago I installed 70x195 watt solar panels for $3.50 per watt. A week ago I bought another 30 panels for $0.78 a watt. 

Batteries are improving too, Lithium is used in lessor quantities and new Battery technologies are emerging. Oil is more finite and all our Gov't can come up with so far to stretch the oil is to throw a few bushels of (totally non-cost-effective) corn ethanol into the mix. 

The adversaries of the EV are vehemently still stuck in their Excursions poking fun at the tree-huggers who obviously will be soon stuck on the freeways en-mass with dead batteries. But we have analyzed the situation and we know better than that, even though going EV is a bit of a challenge.

francis


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## JRP3 (Mar 7, 2008)

muffildy said:


> anyone here know how long a typical induction or bldc motor will last? what kind of maintenance it will need? i know rewinding a motor will cost around 700$ as i was considering buying a cheap industrial motor, but im not sure when/why one would need to rewind one normally; obviously it gets done or i wouldnt have been able to find anyone capable of doing it.


AC industrial motors have run 24 hours a day for years on end with no maintenance, far more "miles" than any vehicle would ever see. Sure anything can break down but as I said a properly designed and cooled AC motor should last a very long time. Think of the fan motor in your HVAC system for your house, whenever the heat or A/C is running that fan is running, and those fans typically last the life of the system, 20+ years. When they do go bad it's usually the bearings.


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## IamIan (Mar 29, 2009)

muffildy said:


> thats assuming you dont need to replace its electric motor which im betting wont last 40 years just like the diesel probably wont.


The diesel's mean time before failure ( MTBF ) is inferior to the electric motor... and it needs more frequent servicing.

I haven't read it directly for the Leaf ... but I suspect the Leaf's traction motor will have equal if not superior MTBF of the GM Volt's Traction motor ... GM directly tested the traction motor to 600,000 miles without failure... according to GM's Chief Engineer for Electric Motors Pete Savagian in a interview with SAE , on October 26 2011 ... link and quote bellow:

Link



> 3:09
> Comment From nasaman
> Followup to my last question: If as you say you validate your electric motors to three lives & each life is 200k miles, does that mean one could expect a life of 600K miles?
> 
> ...


Outside of LTL style rigs / trucks ... I do not know of any smaller car type diesel engine that is tested by the OEM to expect 600,000 or more miles of useful service life ... Well maintained a diesel engine can last a long time ... but an equally well maintained ( for what little they need ) ... the BLDC / AC traction motor will have a superior mean time before failure... it is an inherent and well known benefit of the electric motor vs the ICE.



muffildy said:


> but the diesel you can just grab a used one from a junkyard for cheap.


Person A with the technical skills and equipment to be able to do that has the same benefits as Person B who has similar skills and equipment to do that for electric motors... Person A with the skills & equipment to rebuild their engine is comparable to Person B with the skill and equipment to rebuild their electric motor ... if anything ... Electric motors are simpler machines , not only needing far less service and last far longer , but are easier to service and rebuild than a ICE.



muffildy said:


> cost of gas is probably not going to be 4$ a gallon over the course of 40 years though, its a gamble right now as to when its going to get expensive.


Not a gamble at all ... gas has a clear historical record of going one way ... up in price with only minor short lived fluctuations ( signal noise ) ... every indication is that the price of gas will not be $4 per gallon over the next 40 years ... any more than it stayed at $3 per gallon for 40 years ... or $2 per gallon for 40 years before that ... just 20 years ago I recall buying gas for less than $1 per gallon ... in just 20 years it has increased ~400% in price ... even if I conservatively assume there will be no significant influence from the additional 3rd world population starting to drive nor any significant influence from the finite nature of the oil resource itself ... even if I am conservative enough just to assume ( incorrectly ) that none of that will play a significant role at all ... just at the rate of the last 20 years ... 40 years from now gas would be ~1,600% more expensive per gallon than it is today ... even if we went another step forward and also very conservatively assumed for some reason we were able to slow the rate of increase we've seen in the last 20 years , even despite all the forces we know will drive up the price ... how much slower do you really think is realistic?

I don't see $4 per gallon being realistic average price of gas over the next 40 year time period... all data I see points to a much higher average price per gallon ... well over $10 per gallon as a average over the next 40 years still looks conservative to me.

Yes ... grid electric rates also increase over time ... but historically they raise much slower per year on average ... over ~40 years if the historic rate of electric rate increases remains it would yield roughly ~120% increase ... or less than 1/10 the rate of increase of the price of gas.

The gap that exists today will only get much larger over time ... like the next ~40 years or so... while at the same time the cost of replacement batteries of equal performance get cheaper.


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## muffildy (Oct 11, 2011)

thats all true, but its not going to go right to 10$ - probably going to be under 5$ for the next 4-5 years and maybe under 6$ for the next 5 years after that. Which would make 5 years from now the best time to buy an EV because there should be some used on the market and the component prices should be lower.


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## IamIan (Mar 29, 2009)

muffildy said:


> thats all true, but its not going to go right to 10$ - probably going to be under 5$ for the next 4-5 years and maybe under 6$ for the next 5 years after that. Which would make 5 years from now the best time to buy an EV because there should be some used on the market and the component prices should be lower.


I agree.

The 2nd R ... in Reduce , Reuse , Recycle 

It is nearly always a good idea to reuse a product ... instead of just buying a new one... environmentally or economically.

But I have a few points I would like to make about that concept:



We could make the same argument that it would be better for them to buy used , to everyone of the millions of new vehicles bought / produced every year... even for ICE vehicles... There are a lot of old vehicles/products that could be rebuilt from salvage yards for less than a brand new vehicle.
Some people do that already ... but most do not.
The only reason that the used products exist for some people to do that ... especially at significantly lower than new product prices ... is because there are so many more people buying new instead... if we as a society shifted heavily to a reuse it system ... as good as that might be ... the demand for used vehicles and used parts would skyrocket ... at the same time the supply would drop with the increase in demand... Our society doesn't work that way ... which is a benefit for those who are willing to reuse ... but a lot of the economic benefit you see for doing that is very much a product of the larger number of people in society not doing things that way.
It is a chicken or egg situation with a clear answer ... there has to be someone buying it new before there can be someone buying it used ... the used buyers depend on the existence of the new buyers... for vehicles, cell phones, PCs , whatever.
HEVs are already doing some of that ... a Used Prius HEV Synergy Main electric motor is easily capable of being the main traction motor in many small BEV conversions ... plus the used DC-DC converter , motor controllers , etc ... I know of three different people working on that Prius option for their BEV conversions ... Electric fork lift motors have been around even longer and have a longer history of being reused in BEV conversions... same thing for other HEV parts that BEVs conversion may want or need ...
For my own minor projects I've bought from a salvage yard 2 HEV NiMH battery packs ... that still tested at a usable ~1.8 kwh , ~15C discharge Rates , ~7C charge rates, ~40wh/kg , ~120wh/L, ~690W/kg, ~2,200 W/L ... not modern Lithium wh/kg , but for ~$270/kwh useful for those minor projects...
But that's me ... even the DIY guys at the salvage yard had no intention of reusing them... they were mechanical types not as comfortable with electronics or electrochemical products ... but other people like myself who are can easily benefit just as much as the mechanical types benefit from used products and such.
Like many others before you ... if you have or are willing to get the skills and the equipment to do so ... you can build a very low cost 'budget' BEV conversion today ... but like anyone reusing someone else used left overs ... such projects have their challenges.
If you want to make the economic comparison between the costs over some period of time , be it ~40 years ( or other ) between driving a ICE ( diesel or not ) and a BEV ... using a realistic price for the average cost of gas is important ... and $4 per gallon is not a realistic average price for the next ~40 years... updating the math to a more realistic average price crushes and destroys the ICE economic ~40 year argument ... if you want to make your own more economical buy planning your build around reused salvage parts , great ... have at it... but like any salvage part reuse project... it will have it's own challenges... and it doesn't require you to wait ~5 years ... people have already been doing that for more than a decade already.


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## CrazyAl (May 9, 2011)

Hi,

Consider this - you can theoretically generate your own electricity from Solar and Wind. This technology is available to everyone and can be installed in your back yard. People do it already.

How many people have oil deposits and an oil refinery in their back yard?

Kind Regards
Crazy Al​


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## muffildy (Oct 11, 2011)

solar/wind is offtopic...but i would say the biggest reason why people dont install that in their home is because 1) costs a fortune 2) when you move it would be difficult to remove 3) weather hazards like hurricanes could destroy it randomly.

used is great; ive had my current car (dodge neon highline) since 1999 and put in a good 13-15k miles a year on it. It has had its maintinance issues, but overall its cost me about 25% of what a new car would have cost me. I bought a mazda miata to harvest for parts for the project i am working on, hopefully by the time the car is fully operational battery prices will have dropped more.


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## Guest (Nov 20, 2011)

Not fully off topic because you can use that to charge your EV. If you crunch the numbers the cost for lithium batteries is not that bad over the life of the cells. Same holds true for the solar panel installs. In the long run the cost is less. It is also a way to help produce clean power and drive clean cars. I just wished more folks would be on the same band wagon about pollution in our air. What will you pay to clean up your home? Meaning the tiny round ball we all live on.


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## muffildy (Oct 11, 2011)

*shrug* best i can do is this project i am working on, maybe in 10 more years i will have money to install solar panels too. Its unlikely humans will ever learn to be considerate of the earth so probably the best thing we can do for the planet is kill off the human population since they/we are hell bent on killing everything else off by destroying ecologies/pollution. Hmm there were a few movies about this...need a mad scientist to create a plague sometime. Or we could learn to limit ourselves - zero population growth, centralized housing/work areas so that less land needs to be cleared, clean energy, remove the need for a car in the first place etc etc, not bloody likely.


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## Guest (Nov 20, 2011)

Hey, that's alright. It took me over 35 years to be able to afford them. Until then you do what you can. My first conversion was a lead acid conversion too. Humans will learn but I am afraid it may be too late by then. Lots we can do even if we can't afford some of the cooler stuff. I wanted solar back in the late 70's.


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## IamIan (Mar 29, 2009)

gottdi said:


> Hey, that's alright. It took me over 35 years to be able to afford them. Until then you do what you can.
> 
> Lots we can do even if we can't afford some of the cooler stuff. I wanted solar back in the late 70's.


100% agree.

Life happens ... roll with the punches as best we can ... do what we can one step at a time with the limited resources we have.

I know I've had many more setbacks and delays than I would have guessed 20+ years ago ... others have also faced setbacks and delays.

I would only suggest people NOT hold off on their projects or living their life waiting for some magical / miracle advancement by someone else ... I see that as a potentially paralyzing trap that more than one person has fell victim too ... setbacks working with the limited resources one has , yes ... but putting it on hold waiting for someone else to fix things for you , I suggest against that.


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## dtbaker (Jan 5, 2008)

b13bliss said:


> Calculate the cost of the actual battries you use (or plan to use) assuming that you will get every cycle the manufacturer claims and turn it into cost per mile based on a reasonable wh/mile. Now add the cost per mile of electricity including all loses from "wall to wheel." Just on those two items, I kept arriving at around 8 cents per mile for batteries and 4.5 cents for electricity.


wow, I think you are pretty far off.
I did as close to an apples-to-apples as possible with the same vehicle on gas and residential retail price electric (with large format prismatics at about $1.22/AH), and I am pretty confident that EV is less expensive per mile when gas is above $3.00/gallon.

the kicker of course is to install PV as well.....

I did not check diesel mileage/price /gallon, but feel free to plug into my calcs to see how it works out.

http://www.envirokarma.org/ev/op_cost.shtml

feel free to check my numbers at


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