# Why the Nissan LEAF Electric Car Will Flop



## dimitri (May 16, 2008)

Jerry Flint is an idiot at best, or idiot paid by oil companies at worst 

"Real car buyers" ???? WTF does that even mean? Is he referring to people who are grabbing zero percent loans for 60 months with no downpayment, so they can later default on them and wait for government to bail them out? Or people who buy new car every time warranty expires or tires have to be changed? Nissan will be lucky not to have such "real car buyers".

He mentiones tax subsidy for charging infrastructure and tax rebates on electric cars, but conveniently forgets 100 times more tax money wasted on oil subsidies for decades.

What a joke of a journalist Jerry Flint is, I hope he Googles his own name and finds this thread


----------



## david85 (Nov 12, 2007)

Well, you have the subsidies for oil companies but you also have heavy royalties and taxes that get slapped on any petroleum product every time it moves so in the long run its a net profit for governments (and to a lesser degree tax payers).

A car that everyone wants.......isn't it funny to see how when it comes to newer ideas, some skeptics simply expect all the problems to be solved? Even the problems that were always there with other ideas? A car everyone wants - there is no such thing!

What does exist however, is an idea that a significant number of people would buy to reach minimum market share and profitability. To say that a highway capable EV that has 100 miles of range cannot fill that role is to put it kindly is "untrue". The idea has not been tested in a modern economy so how can they know?

Guys like this need to look up the dictionary definition of "enterprise".
I'm sure people mocked Henry Ford when he set up his assembly line but in the end he had the last laugh.

It takes bold courage to make these ideas work, no the advice of a jaded marketing department. However, I have my doubts that the leaf will see production the same way I am doubtful the volt will reach production. Not for the reasons mentioned however.


----------



## ElectriCar (Jun 15, 2008)

Well you don't buy an electric car, now anyway to drive 300 miles. You buy it to do your local driving, the same reasons I have nearly $20000 invested in an electric truck with manual windows and no air conditioning that only goes 30 miles before needing recharging! 

This dude is old school, knows nothing about the folk who will buy this car and probably is full of hot air. I personally didn't like his tone!

I'd love to have my truck go 100 miles! I'd get more use out of it for sure. For now though I've parked mine recently because of cheap fuel. It's not worth it to me to drive 300 miles just to break even on the insurance and taxes!


----------



## PhantomPholly (Aug 20, 2008)

It will flop because it is expensive for such a tiny car.

"It's the batteries, stupid!"


----------



## ElectriCar (Jun 15, 2008)

They probably said such about the hybrid vehicles too.


----------



## david85 (Nov 12, 2007)

Hybrids have pretty small batteries and still cost significantly more than comparable sized non hybrids.

I'm not sure the leaf can't be profitable, but it won't be competitively priced with similarly sized cars that are ICE powered. However in the case of hybrids, they sold anyway despite the price difference. For a while at least.

The battery in my car cost about $17000USD delivered with charger but that was without any volume discount so that was basically retail priced (ok, I haggled, but still it wasn't a great deal). I would expect that if nissan really wanted, they could acquire the same setup for about half that (at the very least a 40% discount). That brings the cost closer to $10000 for the battery. Thats still a lot for a production vehicle, but I think its possible......this assumes they actually want the car to succeed however. A big assumption when we talk about automakers that have built piston rattlers for so long.

It will be easier for me to be an armchair expert on this once my car is running though.


----------



## Guest (Feb 25, 2010)

But they are at the advertising point and the Volt is not even close. So I'd say the Leaf will have limited success because of nay sayers keeping the idea in the head that you need to be able to go 300 miles at a whack even though you only do that maybe a few times per year in reality. I do plenty of 100 mile or less runs all the time. 300 hundred mile runs are almost non existent in my arena. I do some mind you but that 100 mile plug in will be perfect for our commuting purposes. I also won't be limited to the back roads at 35 mph for the NEV either. 

Pete 

As for price, it is anyones guess. I bet they have a decent price. I am banking on this one but it better happen when they say or sooner because I will by then move on to my own.


----------



## PhantomPholly (Aug 20, 2008)

ElectriCar said:


> They probably said such about the hybrid vehicles too.


And they were right - many of the models have been pulled.

It's a niche market right now, because they still don't make sense economically.


----------



## Overlander23 (Jun 15, 2009)

PhantomPholly said:


> And they were right - many of the models have been pulled.
> 
> It's a niche market right now, because they still don't make sense economically.


Who's pulling hybrids? If anything, I'm reading more articles about European manufacturers starting to get in on the game.

Let's see we have the:

BMW 7-series
Chevy Malibu
Ford Fusion
Honda Civic
Honda Insight
Lexus GS 450h
Lexus HS 250h
Lexus LS 600h
Merc S-Class
Mercury Milan 
Nissan Altima
Toyota Prius

oh, and the...

BMW X6
Cadillac Escalade
Chevy Tahoe
Chrysler Aspen
Dodge Durango
Ford Escape
GMC Yukon
Lexus RX 450h
Mazda Tribute
Merc M-Class
Mercury Mariner
Toyota Highlander

<breath>

Chevy Silverado 1500
Dodge Ram 1500
GMC Sierra 1500

Not to mention the announced models like the Audi Q5, Chevy Volt, Honda CR-Z, Infiniti M35, VW Toureg, Audi A8, and Porsche Cayenne... and the slew of hybrid concepts, like the Ferrari 599, Lotus Evora 414E, and Lexus CT 200h.

I wouldn't exactly consider that to be a fail... yet. And sales seem to be as fickle as gas prices. If/when fuel prices start going up, sales of hybrids are sure to increase, just as the inverse has been true.

Then again, who knows how consumers really think. I live in a state that has more 4wd vehicles than in the snowbelt... and people will complain about paying a few thousand more for a hybrid, but not for a set of shiny "twenty-two's"...


----------



## ElectriCar (Jun 15, 2008)

With fuel at $2.75 my electric truck isn't worth it to me so I parked it. I began building it when it was a dollar higher. By the time I was finished I had to drive it! Now the new has worn off I decided to let it sit until fuel goes up again, which they're predicting it to be $3.25 or so by summer. That's better and I'll reconsider at that time. Oh yea, the power company went up 10% on our power so that's when I decided to shut it down.

As fuel goes above $3 again, hybrids will again be flying off the lots. Electric vehicles have a price point at which they're not viable from a $ saving aspect. However the environmental impact will factor in many decisions, some more than others. It does mine.


----------



## Guest (Feb 27, 2010)

I think the environmental issue will trump more than many think. Many are really aware of the severity of the pollution and each step forward is good for everyone. I do however predict that the utilities will begin to raise the rates just so they can get more money when electrics come or seem to be coming to market. Greedy corporate executives will get there paws into that as well. Grrrrrrrrr. 

That is why I went solar all the way baby.  

Pete


----------



## Tahoe Tim (Feb 20, 2010)

Parking your electric truck doesn't make economical sense. It's cheaper to run and the more you use it, the more you recoup the cost.


----------



## infantry11b (Feb 6, 2010)

electric cars are only acceptable if you can get electricity cheaper than gas.
where i live i cant get cheap electricity at night, there is no day/night price change.
so i need a way to get the electricity cheaper.
solar panels are expensive, as are storage devices.
right now im in the process of planning a conversion for my camaro but i cant do it until i find cheap solar panels or develope a cheaper way to recharge the batteries.
as it is i can put a 350 into it, bored ans stroked, for a lot less than a good electric motor and the batteries.
but necessity is the mother of invention - so i keep looking.
did i mention - no place to charge your car when you are on the road?
right now i favor a small gas engine running at a constant speed with a generator charging the batteries all the time - until i can get a new charge and storage system for the home. it will use less gas.


----------



## JRP3 (Mar 7, 2008)

infantry11b said:


> electric cars are only acceptable if you can get electricity cheaper than gas.


I don't know any place where electricity isn't significantly cheaper than gas, on a per mile basis.


----------



## JRP3 (Mar 7, 2008)

Tahoe Tim said:


> Parking your electric truck doesn't make economical sense. It's cheaper to run and the more you use it, the more you recoup the cost.


Yeah I'm missing the logic on this one as well. It still has to be cheaper to run than an ICE. Unless you're trying to preserve the batteries by not cycling them?


----------



## JRP3 (Mar 7, 2008)

PhantomPholly said:


> It will flop because it is expensive for such a tiny car.
> 
> "It's the batteries, stupid!"


Once operating costs are figured into the equation it's not that expensive. A Corvette is expensive for it's size as well, yet there is a market for it. There are a lot of people who will pay extra for a specific vehicle even though it may not make complete economic sense. Otherwise we'd all be driving Yarii


----------



## Tahoe Tim (Feb 20, 2010)

It kills me to have to park my Zero in the winter. It only costs me 25 cents to charge at night. 
If you run the math, the maintenance on an ICE is about the cost of the pack over three years 
so a simple comparison of recharge vs gasoline costs is fair. Every 300 miles I ride, I save $100 in gas 
in my F250 4x4 that I need in the winter. That's $300 a month. The Zero was a no brainer with a payback of the $10k in three years.


----------



## Voltswagen (Nov 13, 2008)

infantry11b said:


> electric cars are only acceptable if you can get electricity cheaper than gas.


Infantry
You are forgetting to factor in the maintenance costs of running an ICE which adds significantly to the total operating cost.
I am currently running cost comparisons on two VW Beetles. A 2003 ICE powered and a 1977 EV. Thus far the ICE is costing nearly double the operating cost of the EV and that is factoring in the Lead Acid replacement costs every 3 years on average. And as the ICE ages....the repair costs will go higher.
The 77 currently has a Lead Acid pack which will be replaced by TS 160ah Lithiums in the next couple of weeks.
I really didn't need the Lithiums as the Lead Acid pack easily meets the demands of daily commuting usage for the EV. (16 miles per day round trip )
I bought them to gain extended range for weekend recreational use.
I know you will want to tell me that the commute is less than average but it really is not as much as you would think.
AAA reports that the average American travels less than 29 miles per day.
This would indicate that many people live within 15 miles of their place of work. Sure some folks have longer commutes but they are the exception rather than the rule according to AAA's published numbers.
Yes, the Lithiums are expensive ($8000.00 for my pack) but that cost brings my EV up to parity with the purchase price of the 2003 ICE VW (about $16,000.00).
So lets look at some simple numbers:

Traveling 80 commuting miles per week plus say another 80 miles recreational per weekend = 160 miles per week. So 2 Lithium recharges per week on average = 104 recharges per yr. (actually I don't do any recreational driving in the winter months but we'll add them anyway)

TS advertizes 3000 recharges at 80% DOD.....but who really knows for sure. Lets be conservative and say I only get 1500 recharges.....Half! 
Do the math.....my Lithium pack could last over 14 years. Thats $571.00 per yr for batteries. 
The 2003 ICE VW averages 23 mpg combined city & highway.....160miles x 52 weeks = 8320 miles per yr. 8320 miles divided by 23mpg = 361 gallons of gas x $2.70 per gal = $974.00 per yr. (assuming gas never goes higher in the next 14 yrs  )
My cost to fully recharge batteries averages .80 each cycle or $1.60 per week. (that is almost not worth factoring in)
And we all would agree the maintenance and repair costs of ICE vs EV heavily favors the EV.


----------



## PhantomPholly (Aug 20, 2008)

JRP3 said:


> Once operating costs are figured into the equation it's not that expensive. A Corvette is expensive for it's size as well, yet there is a market for it. There are a lot of people who will pay extra for a specific vehicle even though it may not make complete economic sense. Otherwise we'd all be driving Yarii


Logically true, but false from a marketing & sales perspective. Those silly, irrational humans!

For a person who typically buys a new car every 4 years, they will never see payback. Joe Six-Pack, on the other hand, rarely looks beyond sticker price ("can I get a big enough loan to buy this car, and can I make the payments?"). When buying an OLD EV Joe Six-Pack will be worried that he will have to replace the battery pack soon - which is still more expensive than replacing an ICE engine and probably less likely that they will be able to procure a "cheap" set at a junk yard. Because these two groups make up the largest portion of the auto consumer crowd, failure to meet these criteria will prevent wide-spread adoption.

This is why electric cars will never truly catch on until they are truly "better" than current cars (cost the same or less to purchase AND save money driving).


----------



## JRP3 (Mar 7, 2008)

PhantomPholly said:


> Logically true, but false from a marketing & sales perspective. Those silly, irrational humans!
> 
> For a person who typically buys a new car every 4 years, they will never see payback. Joe Six-Pack, on the other hand, *rarely looks beyond sticker price* ("can I get a big enough loan to buy this car, and can I make the payments?"). When buying an OLD EV Joe Six-Pack will be worried that he will have to replace the battery pack soon - which is still more expensive than replacing an ICE engine and probably less likely that they will be able to procure a "cheap" set at a junk yard. Because these two groups make up the largest portion of the auto consumer crowd, failure to meet these criteria will prevent wide-spread adoption.
> 
> This is why electric cars will never truly catch on until they are truly "better" than current cars (cost the same or less to purchase AND save money driving).


This logic fails to hold up. Joe Six-Pack obviously looks way beyond sticker price, otherwise, as I said, we'd all be driving Yarii, or whatever the cheapest car is. Everyone has different needs, and wants, and most people make some sort of compromise between what they want and what they can afford. Fuel efficient vehicles including hybrids sell in the millions because people take into consideration the fuel savings potential, along with other metrics such as reliability. Toyota became number 1 by building rather boring vehicles with a good repair reputation, (until recently of course). People didn't buy $30,000-$40,000 SUV's because they needed them or because they were cheap. The Prius was a rather ugly vehicle that was more expensive than a comparable vehicle with worse mileage, yet it's very popular and a good seller, so good that Honda had to come out with a clone. Millions of people are waking up to the reality of an EV, and even with range limitations and higher initial purchase they are anxious to get one. I think the Leaf could be a breakthrough vehicle.


----------



## Voltswagen (Nov 13, 2008)

Would anyone consider paying $40,000.00 for a vehicle that gets 12mpg? My point is....efficiency *is* a consideration.

Now c'mon lets not include the small Hummer Crowd........they are obviously the exception and are going down in flames along with their "Brand".

Joe Six Pack is also evidently not the average buying public evidenced by the fact that Toyota recently passed GM in total vehicle sales. For me Joe Six Pack buys the Pickup Truck.

The average buying public purchases a family sedan or soccer van in the low $20,000.00 range and..........gas efficiency *is* a consideration.
Actually I think I read somewhere that leasing has now surpassed outright purchases. So it's......monthly payment.....style......and efficiency which determines the vehicle.

I think the first Leaf buyers (or leasers, anyone consider that?) will be the educated commuting public.......especially those with longer than average commutes which have the luxury of plugging in at work.
Like the Beetle of old........the scoffers will eventually take notice.
Roy


----------



## PhantomPholly (Aug 20, 2008)

JRP3 said:


> This logic fails to hold up. Joe Six-Pack obviously looks way beyond sticker price, otherwise, as I said, we'd all be driving Yarii, or whatever the cheapest car is.


Again that is partially true but also partially false. If Joe wants an SUV and looks at all the models, he almost always chooses a Toyota ($30k new/15kused) over a BMW ($60k new/30k used). He might spend $5k more for "deluxe," but a $20k/15k difference will be a non-starter for him.



> <snip>The Prius was a rather ugly vehicle that was more expensive than a comparable vehicle with worse mileage, yet it's very popular and a good seller, so good that Honda had to come out with a clone.


The Prius is truly an exception. True, some don't like its' looks, but it performs well and is roomy inside and the cost differential is not huge. Remember, though, that the cost differential for a Hybrid is not as much as an EV. Too, rumors abound that they LOSE money on Prius. Finally, Honda's challenger to the Prius was a flop and a huge money loser.



> Millions of people are waking up to the reality of an EV, and even with range limitations and higher initial purchase they are anxious to get one. I think the Leaf could be a breakthrough vehicle.


Well, I predict that we will both be partly right. I think they may just sell enough to make it profitable, but not enough to be a true trend setter in the industry.

It's all good though. Batteries are getting better and coming down in price, so ultimately it's just a matter of time.


----------



## JRP3 (Mar 7, 2008)

PhantomPholly said:


> Finally, Honda's challenger to the Prius was a flop and a huge money loser.


Honda's Prius clone just came out. I don't know how sales are but it's way to early to call it a flop. I'm not talking about the original two seater Honda Insight. Everyone is jumping on board the hybrid band wagon, in large part because of the success of the Prius. If the Leaf turns out to be a decent vehicle it could have the same impact.


----------



## PhantomPholly (Aug 20, 2008)

JRP3 said:


> Honda's Prius clone just came out. I don't know how sales are but it's way to early to call it a flop. I'm not talking about the original two seater Honda Insight. Everyone is jumping on board the hybrid band wagon, in large part because of the success of the Prius. If the Leaf turns out to be a decent vehicle it could have the same impact.


We will see. Hybrids are still only a small fraction of total sales - and I think everyone on this board agrees that they are merely a stop-gap until truly practical EV's hit the shelves.

And don't get me wrong - I hope the Leaf is a blowout, but i sure won't be buying one...


----------

