# Future price of Lithium cells



## spdas (Nov 28, 2009)

Aloha, do you see the price of Lithium cells going up or down? Two arguements:

1:Lithium price cells will go up, because Lithium is not really abundant and is mostly controlled by Bolivia and (another country in SA) and when car and more tool companies, etc. start using lithium there will be a shortage.

2: Lithium is not in such short supply, is discovered in other places now and advances in manufacture will use less lithium and lithium will be so much widely used in various applications that cells will be plentiful and the price will be driven down.

What do you think?

francis


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## Jason Lattimer (Dec 27, 2008)

Well it very may well go up, but at least lithium can be an interim cheap alternative that gives us the range we need. Hopefully it will give them time to come up with another alternative that works and is cheap. 

I read about silicon used in advanced batteries. That may be the way to go, we have plenty of sand.


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## Woodsmith (Jun 5, 2008)

I reckon that as soon as lithium becomes the common place energy store for transport then Governments will place a tax on it. It won't matter if the price goes up or down if the bulk of the cost is taxation.
I'm sure that plug in charging will be taxed before too long.


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## O'Zeeke (Mar 9, 2008)

I don't see them coming down at least not in the near future due to: 1)our gigantic increasing trade deficit with China, and 2) with certain inflation starting in the US the price may go up even with increased demand no matter where it's mined. Just my .02


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## Overlander23 (Jun 15, 2009)

I thought it was interesting to note that Lithium has about the same abundance as Lead or Nickel according to Wikipedia.

I wonder how much mass in Lithium is used in a traction pack compared with the mass of Lead in a conventional vehicle... and then multiplied by the number of vehicles using Lead-Acid batteries.

Certainly if Lithium-Air tech becomes viable, abundance may not be much of a problem.


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## MN Driver (Sep 29, 2009)

I'm looking at the outdated Thundersky MSDS that I downloaded from their site as part of the battery manual, it shows their Lithium Cobalt cell with 28% Li index, Lithium Manganese 25% index, and Lithium Iron Phosphate(pre Yttrium) as being 3.4% index. I don't know what the index percentage is, if it is a volume measurement or a measurement based on weight.

Based on what I've heard and read, the raw materials cost isn't why we are paying ~$10,000 or whatever we are paying for our packs depending on the size of the pack, but rather the costs of continued research and development and the manual labor required since automation processes are still limited and the constant changes require much retooling when batteries change over time. If a battery company stuck with the same exact methods and materials(no more R&D costs or factory changes) and could create the automated processes to minimize labor costs the costs of these cells, in my speculation, would probably be half the cost to produce. Lead-acid is very cheap as it requires almost no labor manhours to produce since the batteries are primarily handled by machines and most of the handling is loading machines and QA testing as I understand it.


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## roflwaffle (Sep 9, 2008)

According to the USDOT the amount of Lithium per cell is about .3 times the ah rating of the cell in grams. A ~1kWh LFP cell at 3V nominal would have ~.1kg of Lithium. At current prices of ~$80/kg of elemental Li that works out to ~$8/kWh of battery. Considering the cheapest Li cells are around $400/kWh, and everything else moves up to and past ~$1000/kWh, Li prices would have to increase by an order of magnitude before they even increased the price of the cheapest Li batteries by ~25%.. If they did that I'm sure the reserves would increase by a large margin.


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## Voltswagen (Nov 13, 2008)

Unless production volume multiplies many times, IMHO it's doubtful that Lithium Batteries will fall in price for US Consumers any time soon.

When any Central Bank prints more money (ie. Stimulus Programs, bank bailouts, auto industry bailouts etc.) it dilutes the existing money supply.
See this chart of the US Money Supply:
http://www.chartingstocks.net/2009/03/chart-of-the-us-money-supply-1917-2009/
Notice what happened this year?

Diluting a Money Supply makes the cost of hard goods and services more expensive in the home country and therefore lessens the buying power of say: the US Dollar. This also effects
any country who has a trade agreement with the home country.

To over-simplify it: If we were all millionaires by next year what would the cost of say housing and medical services be compared to today? More or less expensive?  Maybe a Big Mac would cost $25.00?
So by increasing the US Money Supply, barring a "Dollar Burning Party" by the Fed as the "loans" are repaid, the effect will be inflationary.
Things here are going to get more expensive over the coming years.

Similarily, the growth in our Money Supply effects the exchange rate of our currency with that of other countries. 
Again, over-simplifying it for the sake of example: Since no country currently uses the Gold Standard anymore, the value of any given currency is largely dependent on what it can buy in the home country. 

So, the Chinese Lithium manufacturers who sell us batteries in exchange for US Dollars may be anticipating that the future value of those dollars will fall due in large part to inflation here in the US.
And yes, I know real estate has fallen here in the US owing to a speculative bubble which recently popped. So you want to argue that the decline is deflationary. And it is....but on a short term basis only and only in that area. Are cars less expensive? How about food & fuel?

Look back 10....15 years. Is the current avg. price of a home in the US
(even given the decline) higher or lower now? 
http://mysite.verizon.net/vodkajim/housingbubble/

So......IMHO....and thats all it is because dramatic things can and do happen......the price of Lithium Batteries for consumers in the US will remain the same or possibly rise.


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## Jason Lattimer (Dec 27, 2008)

You make a very good point. I only hope that we get some good people in power in 2010 that will take measures to reduce the monetary supply and stave off inflation.

I do not believe the current parties in Washington are capable of reducing anything related to the central government.

I only hope I can save up enough for my lithiums before inflation gets too bad.


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## Voltswagen (Nov 13, 2008)

I'm with you all the way Jason.


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## roflwaffle (Sep 9, 2008)

Voltswagen said:


> Unless production volume multiplies many times, IMHO it's doubtful that Lithium Batteries will fall in price for US Consumers any time soon.
> 
> When any Central Bank prints more money (ie. Stimulus Programs, bank bailouts, auto industry bailouts etc.) it dilutes the existing money supply.
> See this chart of the US Money Supply:
> ...


Um, that chart only goes up to 2008... 


Voltswagen said:


> Diluting a Money Supply makes the cost of hard goods and services more expensive in the home country and therefore lessens the buying power of say: the US Dollar. This also effects
> any country who has a trade agreement with the home country.


It isn't just about the money supply. If everyone dilutes the money supply in a similar way then prices remain more or less the same. In order to look at the change in valuation of the dollar it's best to look at the dollar index as opposed to one country's money supply.



Voltswagen said:


> And yes, I know real estate has fallen here in the US owing to a speculative bubble which recently popped. So you want to argue that the decline is deflationary. And it is....but on a short term basis only and only in that area. Are cars less expensive? How about food & fuel?


For the most part everything is sightly less expensive, and it will be until inflation gets back to normal.


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## Voltswagen (Nov 13, 2008)

Rolfwaffle
Thanks for pointing out that the chart only goes to 2008.
Whew! That really changes things.

And your statement that if everyone dilutes their money supply equally there will be no difference. You're very optimistic there buddy, but the real world doesn't work that way.
If it did getting every country to sign the Kyoto Protocol would have been a slam dunk but that didn't happen. It didn't happen for economic reasons
not enviromental.
And there will never be worldwide agreement on each individual country's money supply.....not in your lifetime.


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## roflwaffle (Sep 9, 2008)

I never said that everyone would increase their money supply in an equal way, it was just an example like your millionaire example. That's why we look at the dollar index in general, or specifically the value of the dollar versus another currency we're interested in, say the Renminbi since we're thinking of batteries from China. At least some extent almost everyone has inflated their money supplies, because the dollar is still stronger now than it was at the end of the link/graph you posted after the large increase in money supply. In the case of China specifically, they used to strictly peg the value of their currency to the dollar, and still do so loosely, so unless they change that the price of batteries from China won't increase much if at all, even if the dollar drops more, maybe even approaching the low seen a year or so ago. That said, the next portion of the Wikipedia entry indicates that the Renminbi is undervalued, so if China ever does remove any pegs then battery prices would probably increase significantly.


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## Voltswagen (Nov 13, 2008)

Roflwaffle
We're not as far apart on this as you may think.

The dollar index is of course a measure against a basket of foreign currencies........and as the chart indicates it is falling and for good reason.
Which myself and many analysts believe is because of the increasing money supply here in the US.

The Chinese Yuan (Renminbi) is not one of those currencies in the basket. This may be as you correctly point out because it is "loosely" pegged to the US Dollar. Wikipedia states that the peg was abandoned. Well....letting it trade within 0.30 of the dollar isn't exactly abandoned. With the Dollar in decline one has to imagine that
sooner or later the Central Bank of China will throw in the towel. How much punishment are they willing to take? And you are right....if they abandon the peg not only will Lithium Batts get expensive.........Walmart prices will look like Nordstrom's.
BTW....did you know that Walmart is responsible for nearly 1/4 of Chinese exports and climbing as we type?


So, it's nearly time for a little JD on the rocks......and do I think Lithium
batts for US Consumers will rise in price?...........if it's from China.....there a good chance.
Have a good evening - Roy


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## roflwaffle (Sep 9, 2008)

That Wal-Mart figure sounds right. I doubt they would abandon following the dollar anytime soon, it's industrializing them at an incredibly rapid pace, but sooner or later they will. As for the DI, I and other analysts think it's more or less hit bottom, but only time will tell I suppose.


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## Overlander23 (Jun 15, 2009)

Errr, not quite. In 2006 the US imported $287.8 billion from China.Of that , Walmart imported $27 billion. That's surely a large amount, but only 10% of all *US* imports from China. I'm sure China exports far more to the world at large.

Sources:

http://www.uschina.org/statistics/tradetable.html
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/06/wal-marts-imports-cost-us-jobs.html


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## roflwaffle (Sep 9, 2008)

Facts and figures FTW! The currently figure could be around 15% of Chinese imports in America, which is still huge for one company.


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## Overlander23 (Jun 15, 2009)

roflwaffle said:


> Facts and figures FTW! The currently figure could be around 15% of Chinese imports in America, which is still huge for one company.


Hehe, certainly no argument there!


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