# Current EV Battery Market Shows How Risky Tesla's GigaFactory Gambit Is



## EVDL Archive (Jul 26, 2007)

Lux Research Inc. study shows that the entire industry uptake of plug-in vehicle battery packs per quarter in 2013 is a fraction of what Tesla is planning for.

More...


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## PhantomPholly (Aug 20, 2008)

I sincerely doubt it is as risky as they project.

Most batteries are similar in construct - so much so that it is now common that newer electrode materials are produced purposely in existing form factors so that they can be substituted in existing manufacturing processes.

Too, once they start reducing price the old adage, "build it and they will come" will kick in. The market for cheaper batteries for grid storage, not just automobiles, is enormous at some price point slightly below what we are at today.


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

these annalists don't understand the pent up need for storage .


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

EM would be crazy to build the Mega factory just to produce more 18650's, ..there is a huge surplus of capacity for those with the resulting downward price pressure. 
He will have an ideal opportunity to produce a higher capacity, bigger cell format that better suits the large capacity packs needed for EV's and storage systems and also reduce the assembly time and costs.
He already has a large team of "experts" sweating over new chemistry's and manufacturing processes.
He is not the kind of guy to just follow the trend and make more of what is already available to him.
sure its a big risk,...but when has that stopped him in the past ?


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

Karter2 said:


> EM would be crazy to build the Mega factory just to produce more 18650's, ..there is a huge surplus of capacity for those with the resulting downward price pressure.
> He will have an ideal opportunity to produce a higher capacity, bigger cell format that better suits the large capacity packs needed for EV's and storage systems and also reduce the assembly time and costs.
> He already has a large team of "experts" sweating over new chemistry's and manufacturing processes.
> He is not the kind of guy to just follow the trend and make more of what is already available to him.
> sure its a big risk,...but when has that stopped him in the past ?


 can you tell us more about this over supply of 18650's


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

The 18650 cell market developed on the back of huge laptop sales in the 90's - up to 2010 when the market fell over as tablets took off....but they dont use 18650's.
The result is massive surplus of 18650 manufacturing capacity,..other than those few currently supplying Tesla.


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

My thinking that the 18650 makes a very good pressure vessel, short pathway for conductors and good heat dissipation due to small size
when a cell shorts it's a small failure.
I would point to the AA primary cell industry as a example of small format cell being used in there big lantern batteries .


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

sure, the 18650 is a very well engineered and proven product that also has a well refined manufacturing process.
But, it was designed primarily as a portable power source for laptop computers, hence its size and capacity etc. It was never intended as an EV battery pack let alone a mass storage product.
Tesla chose it as a best compromise for safety and cost as well as volume availability....from those cells available at the time.
Anyone contemplating a "clean sheet" approach to an EV pack/cell would be hoping for some significant improvements in many areas, right from basic chemistry, specific capacity, cooling requirements, power density, cost of manufacture, ease of assembly. etc etc.
If you are contemplating a multi billion dollar investment in a new manufacturing plant, you would have to consider all the options.


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

Tesla has been considering everything they can think of . They should have on test every battery made .

Lux Research is just looking at current use , not the storage market. That type of research tends to miss the big game change Tesla is headed for. To me it seams that is short sighted at best.


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## PhantomPholly (Aug 20, 2008)

Maybe they'll produce Barium Titinate storage units? 

Oh, wait - EEStor already tried that...


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