# Lithium-powered Electric Cars Are 'False Dawn'



## EVDL Archive (Jul 26, 2007)

Interview with Jack Lifton, who is skeptical of the mass-use of electric cars.

More...


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## JRP3 (Mar 7, 2008)

Garbage article.


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## drivin98 (May 9, 2008)

JRP3 said:


> Garbage article.


Agreed. I've already wasted too much time reading Jack's "insights" into the mineral markets.


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## MalcolmB (Jun 10, 2008)

".. you don't develop innovation by throwing money at old men and women in white laboratory coats."

Not the most endearing of statements.


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

20 kg / 5g = 4000 lap top battries x 8 to 12 cells = 32000 to 48000 cells . thats 5 to 8 times more then a tesla uses (6000 cells) . lithium at $35.00 / lb x 20kg = $700.00 for 8 tesla batteries .


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## dimitri (May 16, 2008)

Its obvious that Jack is paid by Chevron to promote "their" patented Ni-Mh batteries.

He is probably also paid by Nickel mining industry.....

That's the only way to explain retarded statements from seemingly educated person.


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## david85 (Nov 12, 2007)

I can see some of his points, like GM coming in too little too late with EVs. But I don't know what he has against lithium. Maybe he doesn't like the chinese or something?

I'll admit that nickel batteries have not peaked yet and there is some room to grow in terms of performance, but it will be an uphill battle to close the gap with lithium.

Whatever world he is living in, its not the same as mine. I have a ~30kwh lithium battery ready to go right now and I'm NOBODY! Theres no reason why the battery can't be mass produced cost effectively for cars and trucks if bigger companies decided to see the light.

The problems with car makers run pretty deep though. To understand the magnitude of the problem, you need to take apart a few cars that were made over the last 30 years and realize just how little they "evolved" in that time.

I can't prove this, but I suspect that the retooling cost of making motors instead of casting engine blocks would be so high that all of them are trying to stall for time hoping this EV fad just goes away and they can get back to selling us overpriced piston rattlers wrapped in a rusty tin shell. I now believe that detroit no longer has the ability to adapt to this new world. Time will tell, but I won't shed a tear if the motor city falls. Maybe then a real automaker can be founded.


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

GM need not tool up , plenty of big motor builders , but it gets very cheap to tool if you are big . tooling payback on a big 3 project that my father worked on was 6 months or "we'll do something else " and at that time the stock holders report said they made 3% / year . nothing like good book keepers . the real loss is long term , motors lasting a lifetime , cars might last the normal car buyer 2 or 3 times longer or more . converting old cars is fun ,green and nostalgic .not in the car manufactures model of profitability I get to have high end castoffs . Hummers on solar lithium , not the greenest but light years greener.


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## david85 (Nov 12, 2007)

Solar powered hummer, I feel so conflicted!

The truth is cars are treated like big shiny expensive newspapers. Practically use and throw away. So many new cars every year only to rust away like all that came before. I have many problems with how cars are made and what powers them is only the start of my grievance with "modern" cars.

Another thing to consider is just how much of the auto industry is now decentralized. Magna is a company you may or may not have heard of, but they are basically an all canadian parts jobber. They have grown so large and powerful that they are building a huge portion of the autoparts, but can also assemble ready made cars. Makes you wonder why they are still working for some one else?

Like most parts jobbers they are firmly rooted in conventional vehicle technology. Its not just the brand name that would have to retool, it a complete industry consisting of many independant companies. I think there is a very real possibility that many would not be able to stay relavent in an era of electric cars.

Call me heartless, but I couldn't care less. They had a good run and its time to move on. Cars that are built for only a 10 service life is not good enough. Rusty carbon steel is not good enough. 20% peak efficiency is far from good enough.


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## engineer_Bill (Jun 24, 2008)

There are currently companies, (parts jobbers) that product parts for the lectric forklift, and industrial uses. If electric cars became mainstream they would have a great new market for high powered electric motors and controllers, and the piston rattlers would have to find another niche. A historical example would be carriage makers and steam engine makers, that adapted to become the car makers of today.


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## david85 (Nov 12, 2007)

engineer_Bill said:


> There are currently companies, (parts jobbers) that product parts for the lectric forklift, and industrial uses. If electric cars became mainstream they would have a great new market for high powered electric motors and controllers, and the piston rattlers would have to find another niche. A historical example would be carriage makers and steam engine makers, that adapted to become the car makers of today.


I won't argue with you, but when you look at how much trouble they go through to avoid even making their own prototypes, it makes me wonder if they have some sort of allergic reaction on contact with EVs.

The EV1 was mostly made by aerovironment (GM just paid for it, then fucked it up), the ford focus EV was done by magna, the recent chrysler EVs that went to washington was done by a high end conversion shop completely independent of Chrysler. The ford ranger EV was also done as a glider conversion by a 3rd party.

The volt......well we still don't know if it even exists. Until I see that thing doing 70 MPH on battery power for more than a few miles, I'm going to say that its vaporware used to try and get a better deal for bailouts/PR.

It seems to me they are just trying to buy time for long enough that EVs go out of style and they can get back to business as usual. 

I see its possible on paper to have a technological solution, but what do you do when people and not willing to change?


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## Coley (Jul 26, 2007)

The cost difference between making just an engine block and a complete high horsepower electric motor is thousands of dollars, cheaper to go electric.

Just to machine the bare casting into a cylinder block ready to be assembled, is way more than any electric motor making.

Those that worry about the carbon footprint of a huge foundry should realize this.

A foundry to cast end housings, for electric motors, is a much small scale operation.

The EV problem still goes back to:

I. They would run too long without maintainence

2. They would be easier to build

3. They would actually be CHEAPER to build

Chevron isn't going to like that......


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

it would be so cheap to build motors on the automated scale of the small block GM ( in the 60's automotive engineering journals said they cost 50.00 complete . ) the big problem for them is the unending life of electric motors . We could take a 1910 electric motor put a few hundred bucks into it and it could last the rest of my life . this makes us completely independent of them .added , just as the steam engine could be built buy any machine shop the electric motor can be built on small scale . try to do that with a modern engine .


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## sunworksco (Sep 8, 2008)

There is also no reason that the US battery makers can not mass-produce lithium iron phosphate batteries without human hands ever touching them other than shipping and handling.The existing car companies should not receive another dime of bail-out money unless they shed their ICE cars and go 100% electric car.


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## sunworksco (Sep 8, 2008)

Just heard on the news that the US CEO wage compared to the blue-collar worker is 400-1 and in Canada it is 20-1.Capitolisim has a black eye right now and needs to recover fast!


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## engineer_Bill (Jun 24, 2008)

I agree; the carmakers of today won't lead the change, but when the rest of the world has changed they will rush to catch up. Once the public has realized they were sold a bill of goods with the noisy money guzzling gas burners, they will rush to the new technology. being able to just get in the car and push a button and go, no driving around looking for a place to fill up, worrying about the rising cost of gas, etc... The problem is the auto makers are looking for a way to further milk the public using electric cars as a tool. As hobbyist we know how simple and cheap electric cars can be. But the examples I have seen are outrageously expensive and filled with expensive and proprietary computers and control electronics that are difficult to maintain. The paradigm of motor controller and battery pack <$10,000.00 in a light weight vehicle has been completely lost. What part of I'm buying an electric car to save money didn't they understand?


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## tj4fa (May 25, 2008)

david85 said:


> I see its possible on paper to have a technological solution, but what do you do when people and not willing to change?


You haul ass passing them in your EV.


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

engineer_Bill said:


> I agree; the *carmakers*​ of today won't lead the change, but when the rest of the world has changed they will rush to catch up. Once the public has realized they were sold a bill of goods with the noisy money guzzling gas burners, they will rush to the new technology. being able to just get in the car and push a button and go, no driving around looking for a place to fill up, worrying about the rising cost of gas, etc... The problem is the auto makers are looking for a way to further milk the public using electric cars as a tool. As hobbyist we know how simple and cheap electric cars can be. But the examples I have seen are outrageously expensive and filled with expensive and proprietary computers and control electronics that are difficult to maintain. The paradigm of motor controller and battery pack <$10,000.00 in a light weight vehicle has been completely lost. What part of I'm buying an electric car to save money didn't they understand?


they will rush to catch up and sell a better product for a loss in order to smash the small upstarts "and all will be as it should be " . We will marvel at how cheap and great our system works as the upstarts die . nothing new hear ! then slowly they will work on planed obsolessence


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## david85 (Nov 12, 2007)

tj4fa said:


> You haul ass passing them in your EV.


I was actually thinking to run them over, but your idea is probably safer. Wouldn't want to scratch such a nice vehicle knocking off those bone heads at GM. Seriously though, nice truck. My sister has a turbodiesel version only a few years older than yours. Great tough little trucks. Love the turning radius.


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## engineer_Bill (Jun 24, 2008)

People are followers. They resist change because it will cost more, (current ev offerings are much more expensive than ICE). But they will move in droves when it becomes popular, I.E. a major celebrity drives an electric.


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## ZeroGasoline (Jul 30, 2008)

I think the biggest hurdle to getting mass produced electric cars on the roads are the few (and very loud) opponents to electric vehicles.

You've seen them on the forums here with posts like:

_I want a 9 passenger suv that can haul my boat at 75mph with a range of 400 miles and a recharge time of 10 minutes._

When you reply that it's possible, but would cost a good deal of money because of their expectations, they take that opportunity to aggressively bash the EV community and then dismiss it just as quickly.

There is a shred of credibility to their argument - EV's generally aren't a complete _all around, every circumstance_ vehicle. Inexpensive EV's are not the best choice for a coast to coast roadtrip for example. 

They are however perfect for 90% of the driving one does throughout the year. Most of us have routines - we work, and run basic errands, we pick the kids up on the way home, etc. We know exactly how far we're going to drive each day and can build/plan an EV accordingly. This makes them extremely efficient economically and environmentally. There's nothing wrong with owning two vehicles - an EV for everyday driving, and a regular gas car for longer or unexpected traveling. That makes sense to me and is what my family does.

***

On a separate note, I think you should have to get a special permit to buy an SUV or giant truck. You should have to prove the need for such a large vehicle. If you buy a Suburban just so you can drive yourself to work and stop by the grocery store, you should be prohibited from registering the vehicle. SUV's are not commuter vehicles and should not be used as such. Same with full size trucks. 

However, if you do have a valid need (need to haul things, have a local terrain which warrants such a vehicle, need it for work...) you should also have to register a smaller sized vehicle at the same time you register your larger one. You are permitted to drive the large vehicle when it is needed, but if you're just driving into town to get some milk, leave the gas guzzler at home.

Rants are fun!


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## dimitri (May 16, 2008)

> On a separate note, I think you should have to get a special permit to buy an SUV or giant truck. You should have to prove the need for such a large vehicle.


Trust me, you do not want to live in the society where you need government approval for how you want to spend your money. That is not the answer.

Those people you referring to will naturally learn when gas gets to $8-$10 per gallon and even more. If not then, they will sure learn when gas stations will start to get dry completely and permanently. Until then, there are plenty of people like you and me to drive the progress, no worries.

Respect those you don't agree with, we all deserve our freedom of opinion...


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## david85 (Nov 12, 2007)

dimitri said:


> Trust me, you do not want to live in the society where you need government approval for how you want to spend your money. That is not the answer.
> 
> Those people you referring to will naturally learn when gas gets to $8-$10 per gallon and even more. If not then, they will sure learn when gas stations will start to get dry completely and permanently. Until then, there are plenty of people like you and me to drive the progress, no worries.
> 
> Respect those you don't agree with, we all deserve our freedom of opinion...


Amen dimitri. I could't agree more.


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## ZeroGasoline (Jul 30, 2008)

dimitri said:


> Trust me, you do not want to live in the society where you need government approval for how you want to spend your money.


Not how you spend your money, but how you consume our resources...

I completely agree with you, you certainly cannot force people to make globally responsible choices. They will however make personally beneficial financial choices (as do we all) so eventually they'll "come around".

Nonetheless, it was a fun rant!


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## JRP3 (Mar 7, 2008)

engineer_Bill said:


> People are followers. They resist change because it will cost more, (current ev offerings are much more expensive than ICE). But they will move in droves when it becomes popular, I.E. a major celebrity drives an electric.


No, they'll buy EV's when they feel the price is right and the range is enough for them, these are different values for different people. As price comes down and range increases they become viable for more people. Celebrities have been driving EV's for a while, but the average person can't afford a Tango, an Ebox, or a Tesla.


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## JRP3 (Mar 7, 2008)

ZeroGasoline said:


> On a separate note, I think you should have to get a special permit to buy an SUV or giant truck. You should have to prove the need for such a large vehicle. If you buy a Suburban just so you can drive yourself to work and stop by the grocery store, you should be prohibited from registering the vehicle. SUV's are not commuter vehicles and should not be used as such. Same with full size trucks.
> 
> However, if you do have a valid need (need to haul things, have a local terrain which warrants such a vehicle, need it for work...) you should also have to register a smaller sized vehicle at the same time you register your larger one. You are permitted to drive the large vehicle when it is needed, but if you're just driving into town to get some milk, leave the gas guzzler at home.
> 
> Rants are fun!


Bad idea though. Promote EVs to get the costs down and the market will move to them, while ICE's will only be used when really needed since it won't be cost effective to use them all the time.


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## CFreeman54 (Jan 14, 2009)

I agree with JRP3, it is a garbage article. ".. you don't develop innovation by throwing money at old men and women in white laboratory coats." I guess the author thinks Ph.D.'s with expensive education and years of experience will do research for free! Where does he think scientific innovation does come from? 

Furthermore, there is nothing intrinsically expensive about Lithium Ion battery production. Even now, with battery production on a relatively small scale, the electronics associated with battery management systems is half the cost of a battery pack. We all know what happens to electronics cost when mass produced. Look at my $20 cell phone. 

Further, no one said Li Ion has to be the only source of energy for vehicles. There are other promising battery chemistries, but Li will certainly be an important one. At the moment its energy density is hard to beat.


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## david85 (Nov 12, 2007)

CFreeman54 said:


> Further, no one said Li Ion has to be the only source of energy for vehicles. There are other promising battery chemistries, but Li will certainly be an important one. At the moment its energy density is hard to beat.


Good point. Electric cars have the inherent advantage over ICEs and fuel cells because of raw net efficiency. The fact that they are clean, safe, low cost (compared to FCs), and last long are also good attributes among many others.

The new "dawn" that I think lithium represents is a world wide race to get better and better batteries and its not slowing down. More has happened in the last 7 years than the preceding 100 years to make better batteries for EVs. Imagine what the future 7 years will bring!


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## tj4fa (May 25, 2008)

david85 said:


> I was actually thinking to run them over, but your idea is probably safer. Wouldn't want to scratch such a nice vehicle knocking off those bone heads at GM. Seriously though, nice truck. My sister has a turbodiesel version only a few years older than yours. Great tough little trucks. Love the turning radius.


Thanks about the truck but I like your idea better. 

Line all the members of Congress, the crooked bank/corporate CEOs, and their cronie underlings, Big Oil, labor union officials, and anyone else taking the election payoff...err...TARP funds, and throw a few supreme court judges in the mix end-to-end and see how many can get mowed down with a freshly charged lead-acid battery pack. 

Like the Joker said in the Batman movie..."This town needs an enema"...


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## JonasMeyer (Feb 28, 2009)

While this article might have been written by a complete asshole, I think the general point is sound. Lithium IS pretty rare. See this chart for just how rare it is in the universe in general. http://www.daviddarling.info/images/cosmic_abundance.jpg

For comparison, the relative abundance of iron by weight in the earth's crust is 63 parts per thousand. The relative abundance of lithium by weight in the earth's crust is 17 parts per million. (source:http://www.webelements.com/lithium/geology.html)

Keep in mind that the average car has a ton or so of iron in it, plus or minus. And the 30 KWh lithium iron phosphate battery being talked about earlier has a weight of about .4 tons (source: http://skyenergy.en.alibaba.com/pro...02/Lithium_Ion_Battery_Pack_TK_48V_120Ah.html). Now mulitply that by a billion cars or so and we are talking about some serious tonnage of lithium. Granted not all of that 400kg is lithium, but a large part of it is.

Lastly, all current lithium extraction techniques use salt flats as a source of lithium brine. There are plenty of other sources of lithium in the earth's crust, but we have no processes to extract and purify them. I've no doubt if the cost of lithium shot up that some enterprising mining company would get to work on that, but it's not the technology of today.

Small (and even medium scale) electric car production is certainly practical given our supplies of lithium, and I think lithium powered cars are the next 5 years at least. But will the price of lithium rise enough such that something else like magnesium (chemically very similar and over half as common as iron) will win the battery chemistry wars? I don't know. I just don't think we will build a fleet of cars for every American and European and Chinese and Indian and Brazilian using lithium.


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## david85 (Nov 12, 2007)

I think by weight, the average lithium battery is only about 1% pure lithium. Some one please correct me if I'm wrong, but I remember an earlier discussion about that.


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## JRP3 (Mar 7, 2008)

Here's an extensive article on lithium reserves and requirements. I'd say there is plenty of lithium for a while.
http://evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=20938


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## BWH (Sep 26, 2008)

david85 said:


> I think by weight, the average lithium battery is only about 1% pure lithium. Some one please correct me if I'm wrong, but I remember an earlier discussion about that.



Taken from the Thunder Sky Material Safety Data Sheet (scroll to section 1.3):

http://www.everspring.net/txt/product-battery-msds.htm

This chart matches the PDF from the Thunder Sky site. It's just easier to look at it here rather than hunting through 84 pages in the PDF to find it.
The LiFePO4 cells come in the lowest with 3.4%, but the others clock in at 28% and 25%.

This of course is just an example of one manufacture's products. Others are sure to be different.


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## JRP3 (Mar 7, 2008)

I wonder if the nanophosphate cells such as A123 and Altairnano use even less lithium because of the greater surface area of the nano particles?


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## hal698 (May 9, 2009)

Ever heard of Thomas Edison, Tesla, and I don't need to go through the whole list. History tells us that the "naysayers who are in the know" are always wrong. Negative is wrong and doesn't play into what it is to be human. The possibilities are endless. Just look around you at all the new technology that is propelling our current lives and paving the way for future breakthroughs. Right now, lots of people are turned on to the possibilities, and any time in history this has happened we have made major strides for humanity.


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