# How The EV Demand is Projected to Grow



## electrico (May 18, 2017)

The demand for electric vehicles is projected to rise over the next two decades with worldwide revenues estimated to grow from 84 billion U.S. dollars in 2012 to almost 272 billion U.S. dollars in 2019. Similarly, the number of environmentally-friendly cars in use, including both the hybrid and electric vehicles, reached around 1.3 million units in 2016. Infrastructure improvements, as well as the level of gasoline prices in many countriescontinues to influence demand for electric vehicles.


Reference from Torque News - The EV Demand is Projected to Grow.


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

electrico said:


> The demand for electric vehicles is projected to rise over the next two decades with worldwide revenues estimated to grow from 84 billion U.S. dollars in 2012 to almost 272 billion U.S. dollars in 2019. Similarly, the number of environmentally-friendly cars in use, including both the hybrid and electric vehicles, reached around 1.3 million units in 2016. Infrastructure improvements, as well as the level of gasoline prices in many countriescontinues to influence demand for electric vehicles.
> 
> 
> Reference from Torque News - The EV Demand is Projected to Grow.


EV "Demand" is not a good measure - the "Demand" is that far ahead of "manufacturing capability" that it's not funny


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## electrico (May 18, 2017)

I agree with you. Besides with the longer range and lower price the demand will go up even more.


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## brian_ (Feb 7, 2017)

electrico said:


> Infrastructure improvements, as well as the level of gasoline prices in many countries continues to influence demand for electric vehicles.


Don't ignore subsidies, which have proven to have huge effects on sales, especially of moderately-priced models but even of Teslas. Substantial subsidies cannot be continued when EVs reach a more than trivial fraction of vehicle sales volume.


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

Duncan said:


> EV "Demand" is not a good measure - the "Demand" is that far ahead of "manufacturing capability" that it's not funny


 Yes, Demand is probably the wrong word.
There is a void between what the demand is for, and what is actually available
I suspect that anyone who really "wants" an EV , could go out today and buy one, possibly even drive one away. Im sure Nissan (Leaf), GM (Bolt), Ford, BMW (i3, 530e, etc), Renault, VW, MB, Tesla, etc etc would be happy to cater to you (Sure Tesla will make you wait most likely)....depending on where you live.
But the point is, EVs are readily available, just maybe not in the form or cost bracket, that the mass market demand wants !
There is a "Market" for practical, affordable, EVs, ....but that EV doesnt seem to exist yet.


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## MattsAwesomeStuff (Aug 10, 2017)

> The demand for electric vehicles is projected to rise over the next two decades


Golly gee, ya think?

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> V "Demand" is not a good measure - the "Demand" is that far ahead of "manufacturing capability" that it's not funny


That's not what demand is.

Demand for electric vehicles hasn't really changed much in 30 years. Maybe a slight uptick due to charging infrastructure. But the same number and same kinds of people to whom an EV was attractive 30 years ago is what we have today.

That is... 95%+ of people don't care about what's under the hood and would say "Can it do X? Sure. Whatever. How much?" A few extra people, 1%, would say "I don't care if it's expensive and shitty, I have a strong opinion about this!". Likewise, a few people would say "I don't care what price and performance it is. Screw EVs. Give me combustion or give me death."

But really, no change in demand.

What's changed is *supply*.

25 years ago if you wanted a decently performing EV, you... couldn't. Technology just wasn't there, really at any price. Lead acids suck.

15 years ago, price became an issue. The cost of lithiums was so high that there was no market for it. That is, for the value of any possible given vehicle, there wasn't a way you could make a vehicle that met that at a price lower than the value. Tech is there, price is not.

Since then, I think just about 100% of the market adoption of EVs has been due to plummeting lithium costs and/or subsidies.

Again, most people don't care.

If EVs were cheaper than gas cars, with the same speed, charging rates and range... almost no one would buy gas cars.

It's all a supply issue.


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

MattsAwesomeStuff said:


> What's changed is *supply*.
> 
> 15 years ago, price became an issue. The cost of lithiums was so high that there was no market for it. That is, for the value of any possible given vehicle, there wasn't a way you could make a vehicle that met that at a price lower than the value. Tech is there, price is not.
> 
> ...


Its a supply issue ..if you define that issue as being lack of the right EV to suit what the market wants.....value !
It is still a price issue, there is still no EV that matches size for size an equivalent ICE that the mass market buys down in the $20k range.


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## MattsAwesomeStuff (Aug 10, 2017)

Karter2 said:


> Its a supply issue ..if you define that issue as being lack of the right EV to suit what the market wants.....value !


It's a supply issue because it's a supply issue because that's exactly what supply is defined as by, umm, everyone.

Demand is "For a given price and performance, how many people would choose to purchase?" Because there's a different number for every price, but a general trend (the lower the price the more people would say yes), if you graph that, you get a line that slopes downward. A "demand" line, if you will.

Similarly, supply is "For a given price, how many units can be produced?" That line hardly even exists, but it slopes up.

The result of those two lines, where they intersect (one slopes down, the other up) is how many EVs get built and sold. That means that people making them can sell them for more than they cost to build and extract some manufacturing profit, and the people buying them can pay less than the max they would have paid and extract some value.

That intersection number has been increasing, but it has been increasing because the supply line is moving lower so it intersects with the demand line farther down the line at a higher quantity. The only way to intersect at a higher quantity is at a lower price.

The demand line really hasn't budged. It's entirely the supply line that's shifting.



> It is still a price issue, there is still no EV that matches size for size an equivalent ICE that the mass market buys down in the $20k range.



That is 100% a supply issue. The number of EVs supplied for $20k or less, is zero. They can't be made with current technology. Same reason we don't all own rocketships, it has nothing to do with people's preferences for rocketships being low.


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