# Tesla, Is the Dream of Elon Musk at Risk? - VisualPolitik EN



## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

A video of an arsehole who has not got a clue about finance or engineering


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## Kevin Sharpe (Jul 4, 2011)

Duncan said:


> A video of an arsehole who has not got a clue about finance or engineering


Is this more to your taste?

Tesla’s Burning Through Nearly Half a Million Dollars Every Hour

Build fast, fix later: speed hurts quality at Tesla, some workers say


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

He's a tool. Smooth move to qualify it at the end with lead in teck, bla bla.


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

Hi Kevin
Just read both of those
Same applies - arseholes who don't know anything about finance engineering or quality

People who have never actually done any manufacturing work don't understand the difference between the first few months and a stable operation

Even when You have been operating for a couple of years and you have a six monthly change cycle the quality report looks like a sawtooth

As far as the workers "let go" - about 2% - I am amazed that is as low as that - in an expanding company if I only had 2% duds I would be looking for the catch


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

Well said!


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## Tony Bogs (Apr 12, 2014)

The words "fool" and "job half done" pop up in my mind as in 
"Don't show a fool ... " 

when I see the content of the links.


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## Kevin Sharpe (Jul 4, 2011)

Duncan said:


> Same applies - arseholes who don't know anything about finance engineering or quality


Seems to me it's the core message you dislike


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## Kevin Sharpe (Jul 4, 2011)

Duncan said:


> As far as the workers "let go" - about 2% - I am amazed that is as low as that - in an expanding company if I only had 2% duds I would be looking for the catch


yeh, 'duds' includes VP's who have worked at Tesla for 11 years 

Tesla battery head departs as Model 3 production ramps up

Tesla's vice president of business development leaves


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

If a VP leaves after 11 years I am not at all surprised -11 years is a long time in one job
Very very few people do 11 years in one job


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

Kevin Sharpe said:


> Seems to me it's the core message you dislike


Yes - the core message is that the video is by somebody who cannot find his own arse using both hands and a torch

Listen to what he is saying! - He does not have a clue


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

Dad told me about a E.B. welding line for car frames that would skip part of the weld , it was intermittent problem not stopping the production but caused a high scrap rate. They brought in PHD's spent months trying to find the problem . So dad sits down and watches the convayer drive chain took a long time but when the right spot on the chain hit a certain tooth it would skip or jump. 
On a production floor everything moves fast it's hard to slow down and observe and think the problem trough . 
On a job I was on we were building a 4" wide fire door covered with glass it weighed 800 lbs. the hinges were to light, over a month and $50=80,000 
This type of thing must be going on X100 
" Car experts and stock bean counters "don't understand this.
It takes critical thinking, a very rare commodity
Just saw that big solar projects are selling power at $.ooo4/Kwh thats $.40 per megawatt (3ed world wages)


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

aeroscott said:


> Just saw that big solar projects are selling power at $.ooo4/Kwh thats $.40 per megawatt (3ed world wages)


 I dont know where you saw that figure, but you should recheck.
Lowest Solar "bid" prices i have seen are in the range of $0.02 /kWh..($20.0 /MWh)..
But that is only a "bid" price to win a supply contract, and does not represent the actual cost to produce the power ..which will be much higher,..nearer $100 /MWh . Generators bid to win contracts to sell some power at a loss , knowing that it will give them access to the market to sell more power at much higher "peak " prices ( $1000+ /MWh ) , to offset their bid price losses.


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## Kevin Sharpe (Jul 4, 2011)

aeroscott said:


> Just saw that big solar projects are selling power at $.ooo4/Kwh thats $.40 per megawatt (3ed world wages)


Cheapest electricity on the planet is Mexican wind with a bid price 1.77¢/kWh (see here).

Cheapest solar electricity is in Saudi Arabia with a bid price 1.79¢/kWh (see here).


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

I think these are in India the newest plants. 
Solar costis on a fast decline.


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

The prices that I listed if correct would coincide with the $.05/watt solar panels reported by Jack on EVTV. which comes to $50.00/Kwh, at our Ca. price of about $.30/Kwh a ROR of 150 full sun hour on just the panels.


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

There is no way you can source new, quality , PV panels at $0.05/W....no matter who you are, or where you buy from, or in any quantity.
Pre-used, defective, damaged, stolen, ..maybe, but not from a genuine supplier.
PV prices are tracked in many places, some reliable , some not so much, some not showing real wholesale cost without rebates or discounts applied.
Installed costs (100KW) are currently at around $1.5 - $2.0/W before any rebates or tax concessions are applied, and have changed very little over the past 12 months. Infact they have increased 10% since 2015 , due to the variability of the supply/demand situation.
In reality even these prices are a false picture as they do not reflect the Capacity Factor (0.15 - 0.25) or the additional storage costs needed to provide a continuous supply. ( another $50.0 - $100.0 /MWh)
Further, whilst i know i can get a domestic solar system installed for $2.0/W , i find it very hard to believe that a large commercial system can be installed at the same cost/W ...let alone significantly less !
I have some experience in commercial/ industrial purchacing, and i have never met a situation where the commercially contracted installation has been cheaper than a private domestic one for a similar product. ( anything...a light fitting, a plumbing addition, a building construction, etc etc !)


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

Karter2 said:


> There is no way you can source new, quality , PV panels at $0.05/W....no matter who you are, or where you buy from, or in any quantity.
> Pre-used, defective, damaged, stolen, ..maybe, but not from a genuine supplier.
> PV prices are tracked in many places, some reliable , some not so much, some not showing real wholesale cost without rebates or discounts applied.
> Installed costs (100KW) are currently at around $1.5 - $2.0/W before any rebates or tax concessions are applied, and have changed very little over the past 12 months. Infact they have increased 10% since 2015 , due to the variability of the supply/demand situation.
> ...


Utter total nonsense

I'm in New Zealand - NOT a place for cheap stuff !!!

But two years ago I PAID - less than your $1,50 for my system - all in professionally installed

If I had wanted to buy a single pallet - just one I could have halved that price 

And if you think that people who are buying commercial quantities are not getting much better deals then I have a bridge to sell you

My "example" of the ratio between an individual cost and a "commercial cost"

If you want to buy a 6BTAA Cummins engine like the Dodge Ram one it will cost you over $20K
Chrysler pay less than $2K 

As far as the installation then also rubbish - my system cost far too much to install as the electrician was learning
He could have installed ten times as many panels in about twice the time and if he was setting up to do that commercially it would be a LOT cheaper doing large scale solar farms than having to climb on individual roofs

Saying that $0,05/W - is probably a stretch too far!


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

Do any of us know the large buy price in India or china


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

You must have scored a very special deal Duncan.
NZ solar prices are more than double the equivalent Oz costs (we get big rebates) and just skimming a couple of "special offers" for NZ , you would be paying $2-$3/W today for a 5kW domestic install .!
https://www.mysolarquotes.co.nz/abo...tial/how-much-does-a-solar-power-system-cost/
I know a wholesaler can source panels at $0.5 - $1.0W, so that would suggest the majority of the cost is in the "installation"...( mounting, inverters , wiring, labour, delivery etc etc). None of that is going to be cheaper for a utility scale solar facility with typically tracking mounts to install, infrastructure to build, not to mention the HV equipment needed, site costs, and contract workers on some remote site for months .
I stand by my point that utility/commercial projects are much more costly $/W, than small scale domestic systems, installed in a day by a local tradie and his apprentice.. ..(in the same country)


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

aeroscott said:


> Do any of us know the large buy price in India or china


I assume you mean the large quantity buy price ?
That will always be the subject of much negotiation, but to give you an idea there is a chart here..http://solar-power-now.com/solar-panel-prices/solar-panel-price-per-watt/
That shows the current manufacturers cost, before any profit, packing, shipping, storage etc etc...at $0.36/W
Panel manufacturers are in business to make money, so they wont sell sell at that price level
...and we know that most any old joe can buy panels for <$1/W so it gives you a range to consider.....say $0.4 - $1.0 /W.?
Remember that there are panel manufacturers in India, but its unlikely they will be able to better those production costs from Chinese plants.


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

India is starting to produce cells and modules . something about a 300 meg buy $0.28 low and $0.41 high. 
It's all about melting silicon. Magic rocks


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## boekel (Nov 10, 2010)

Usually you can find prices here (page seems offline)

https://www.solarserver.com/service/pvx-spot-market-price-index-solar-pv-modules.html


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## Kevin Sharpe (Jul 4, 2011)

boekel said:


> Usually you can find prices here (page seems offline)


Fascinating resource, thanks!


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## Kevin Sharpe (Jul 4, 2011)

A couple of interesting video's from a new Tesla customer;


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## PhantomPholly (Aug 20, 2008)

Duncan said:


> Hi Kevin
> Just read both of those
> Same applies - arseholes who don't know anything about finance engineering or quality
> 
> ...


Twice in one day I have to agree with Duncan. Too, the negative reporting always lumps all of Tesla into one bag - rather than report the business cycle of different units. For example, at the end of the manufacturing run of the original Roadster they were making a slight profit - and it was simply a proof of concept. Model S, taken independent of everything else Musk, is probably profitable already - and that is very unusual because most business launches take at least 3 years to show a profit. The Gigafactory may not be profitable yet, but it isn't even at full capacity. Etc.

Most product launches anticipate +/-3 years to profitability, with a percentage chance of complete failure. That is simply how it is. Tesla has been very clever in leveraging potential for future profit to obtain additional financing for rapid growth, hoping to build potential. 

Yes, he could still fall on his face. But probably he's going to succeed, and if he does it will have been one of the more brilliant success stories of our age.


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## Kevin Sharpe (Jul 4, 2011)

Musk has just dropped the prediction he made in 2015 that we'd have Level 5 autonomous cars on the road by the end of 2017. He now says we need another two or three years before the technology will be ready... meanwhile Tesla burns $480,000 an hour


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

I wounder how many of the builders on this forum have made predicated deadlines. Or stayed in a predicted cost.


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

aeroscott said:


> I wounder how many of the builders on this forum have made predicated deadlines. Or stayed in a predicted cost.


and building/converting a car is orders of magnitude easier!

My experience of planning large projects is that I get all paranoid and work out the longest it could possibly take - then double it - and then I just about get it done only a wee bit late

I also noticed that people who overpromise and under deliver tend to get promoted in front of the cynical types 
Apparently being cynical is "not being a team player" even when you are right


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

I was told to triple it and I might come out OK.


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

I've been a member of the Experimental Aircraft Association since 1984 and Burt Rutan among others wrote articles about the never ending battle with naysayers . In a club called Experimental!


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## Kevin Sharpe (Jul 4, 2011)

Interesting video - "Tesla: The real cost of being out of warranty"


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## Kevin Sharpe (Jul 4, 2011)

Great video showing the challenge facing Tesla as the car companies wake up


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

The Jaguar still suffers from the problem that ALL of the big car companies have

100 years AFTER we discovered that - Sex Sells Cars - 
Tesla is the only one selling sexy EV's

The other car companies have moved on from - "Hair Shirt Specials" - and have now reached "Sensible Shoes" - but they are still not sexy!!

I mean that's a Jaguar - and it looks like a "sensible commuter car" - Jaguar who have built some of the sexiest cars ever
And they end up with that


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

Duncan said:


> Tesla is the only one selling sexy EV's......


 Everyones taste is different...Everyone needs are different.
Business success for a car makers, means selling as many units as possible, by offering a car that appeals to the majority...a practical, comfortable, affordable, compromise.
The IPace is different and a fresh design , whilst i would suggest the M3 is hard to distinguish from several other mainstream hatchdesigns.
Sadly, Teslas "S" is rapidly looking dated against more recent design trends.
It looks "bulky" and struggles to hide its weight.
The "X" is an impressive design with many novel features for the ocupants, but in traffic it looks odd, oversize , even against other large SUVs !
Having said that, it appears that "sexy",..or at least "on trend" ,..currently around here , are the jacked up, over tyred, Bushbar equipped, Dual Cab Ute's.
......and this is City Central ! 😳


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## Kevin Sharpe (Jul 4, 2011)

Fascinating video - Tearing Into Tesla's Model 3


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

Excellent video Kevin.
It might worry me if i had a deposit on an M3
That suspension arm with a weight zip tied to it  WTF ?
The heaviest body weight in its class ?
But they were less convincing with their battery analysis..
"Wiskers" or "contactors". ....Which we know to be fusible links
Cells balanced to "within 2 mA " ..??? 
And how they could possibly conclude they are "most likely 6 Ah cells ?
....when there is reliable sources (EPA reports) which confirm they are 5.0 Ah capacity.


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

Kevin Sharpe said:


> Fascinating video - Tearing Into Tesla's Model 3


I hate videos - it takes 90 minutes to say something that I can read in 5 minutes 

So what do these talking heads have to say?
Can you summarize it?

And what makes you think they have a clue anyway?


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## brian_ (Feb 7, 2017)

Duncan said:


> I hate videos - it takes 90 minutes to say something that I can read in 5 minutes


I absolutely agree! 

This thing is the length of a feature movie - why?


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

Its an "after hours" chat with Sandy Munroe, of Munroe inc who specialise in vehicle inspection and manufacturing analysis, and are consultants to companies like BMW, Bently, Ford, etc....
One of the most respected independant auto manufacturing analysists in the USA.
The main part is only 60 mins long and well worth it if you are technically inclined.

Basicly, they bought 2 Model 3s then tested and inspected the sh1t our of them.
..before tearing them completely down to their base components and inspecting those.
Main points..
Chassis, handling and performance is very good.
Electronics technology is first class...military aerospace type spec.
Battery pack design is industry leading design.(opinion ?)
Body fit , finish and quality, is some of the worst ever encountered.( details given) Indications are that the assembly teams have not been trained in fundamental production quality systems.
The bodyshell is the heaviest ever encountered for that class/size car and was not well designed with production in mind. It can probably never be made on robotic assembly lines
Final opinion was all EV car makers should pay attention to the basic technology.


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

I love the vid , I get tired of reading as good as it is. Some days I read 12 hours or more. I never get caught up.
I think Sandy is missing the reason for the unusual design of the "A" arm , that's sound transmission or sound deadening . It my be the same for the heavy body.


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

aeroscott said:


> I love the vid , I get tired of reading as good as it is. Some days I read 12 hours or more. I never get caught up.
> I think Sandy is missing the reason for the unusual design of the "A" arm , that's sound transmission. It my be the same for the heavy body.


heavy body - may also be for strength/stiffness - the chassis may get a lot of it's stiffness from the body

Second guessing the engineers is tricky work - we simply don't know what their aims and compromises were


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

That's true . But the way Sandy talked bout the control arm covered in plastic with a iron weight strapped to it , I say acoustics /harmonics .
Much of the panel stiffening, particularly in the floor pans of cars goes well past structural needs to acoustics/harmonics . 
After collision repairs ,you sometimes get a "booming sound" that comes from the panel stresses/ distortion, very hard to solve .


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

aeroscott said:


> That's true . But the way Sandy talked bout the control arm covered in plastic with a iron weight strapped to it , I say acoustics /harmonics . .


 Possibly...but zip ties ??? that is just cheap temporary crap.
Whaat happens when those ties get broken and that iron weight goes bouncing down the road through someones windscreen ?


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

Duncan said:


> heavy body - may also be for strength/stiffness - the chassis may get a lot of it's stiffness from the body


 sure, but the point was,..other manufacturers seem to get sufficient stiffness without the weight.....from better design and material selection.


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## electro wrks (Mar 5, 2012)

Here's an example of what manufacturers have to do sometimes. In this case the early versions of the iconic Boeing 747. From Wikipedia:

"During later stages of the flight test program, flutter testing showed that the wings suffered oscillation under certain conditions. This difficulty was partly solved by reducing the stiffness of some wing components. However, a particularly severe high-speed flutter problem was solved only by inserting depleted uranium counterweights as ballast in the outboard engine nacelles of the early 747s."

I one time owned a car that had a dampening device around the transmission area. The engineers, that had to quickly put together the device while an assembly line was held up, derisively referred to it as the "toilet seat"!

If you look at A arms, they do kind of look like a tuning fork. The designer at Tesla may have unknowingly locked themselves into a B minor chord!


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## brian_ (Feb 7, 2017)

Karter2 said:


> ...Basicly, they bought 2 Model 3s then tested and inspected the sh1t our of them.
> ..before tearing them completely down to their base components and inspecting those.
> Main points..
> Chassis, handling and performance is very good.
> ...


Thanks for the summary


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## brian_ (Feb 7, 2017)

Duncan said:


> heavy body - may also be for strength/stiffness - the chassis may get a lot of it's stiffness from the body


The body is the only structure - as with any modern car there is no separate frame - so the "chassis" gets *all* of its stiffness from the body. The massive battery hung underneath does logically lead to a heavy body structure for the length and width of the vehicle.


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## brian_ (Feb 7, 2017)

aeroscott said:


> But the way Sandy talked bout the control arm covered in plastic with a iron weight strapped to it , I say acoustics /harmonics.


This has been done on suspension arms, but rarely.



Karter2 said:


> Possibly...but zip ties ??? that is just cheap temporary crap


Absolutely!



Karter2 said:


> sure, but the point was,..other manufacturers seem to get sufficient stiffness without the weight.....from better design and material selection.


I agree. If a damping mass is needed on a modern suspension arm, the design failed and the mass is a fix. I've seen a damping mass on the rear axle control arm, to fight problems with axle hop, but not in any well-regarded suspension.


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

These ev's bring a new level sound/vibration problems that in ice cars we never noticed.
I have great respect for Sandy's work , I think he missed it.
If you go to his website and see the v8 powered aircraft with a long driveshaft they were building ,. Well at least 10 people have tried to use v8's and worse v6's and some with a long power shaft. I've talked to or attended seminars from most of them. Some try not to discuss the harmonic problems they have had. They love to talk about the horsepower/lb. The projects never seam to go anywhere. 
Autos have never had to deal with this because tires, hypoid differentials and engine noise have covered this up until now no engine noise .


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## brian_ (Feb 7, 2017)

aeroscott said:


> These ev's bring a new level sound/vibration problems that in ice cars we never noticed.
> ...
> Autos have never had to deal with this because tires, hypoid differentials and engine noise have covered this up until now no engine noise .


While I appreciate that removing the engine removes the masking effect of engine operation, in driving a relative's Toyota Camry Hybrid I found it very difficult to detect by sound or vibration whether or not the engine was running in routine driving, other than under substantial acceleration. I really don't think Tesla is breaking new ground in NVH reduction because of their engineless situation.

Also, hypoid differentials are not inherently noisy. They are less efficient than non-hypoid spiral bevel gears, but in a modern car a hypoid gear set isn't a big noise source. A friend of mine had an old Corvette, and the gear whine from the final drive right behind the driver's right elbow was noticeable, but this isn't 1973 any more. Transverse-engine cars and even many longitudinal-engine cars with transaxles don't even use a hypoid gear set - it's not a big factor in modern car.


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

The hypoid reduces harmonics and the tires absorb them.
A good hypoid is very quiet.


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

Suspension vibration, like tyre harmonics, whell balance, brake shudder, etc...is normally something you feel rather than hear.
Im not a suspension designer, or a vibration expert, but i do not believe a reputable designer would attempt to solve a vibration problem by simply adding weights...they would look for the root cause and rectify that.


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

Karter2 said:


> Suspension vibration, like tyre harmonics, whell balance, brake shudder, etc...is normally something you feel rather than hear.
> Im not a suspension designer, or a vibration expert, but i do not believe a reputable designer would attempt to solve a vibration problem by simply adding weights...they would look for the root cause and rectify that.


You do realise that probably 40% of the cars on the road use a weight damper system?

It's called a Lancaster Damper - you will see one on the front of a lot of crankshafts being used to damp torsional vibration


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## brian_ (Feb 7, 2017)

Duncan said:


> You do realise that probably 40% of the cars on the road use a weight damper system?
> 
> It's called a Lancaster Damper - you will see one on the front of a lot of crankshafts being used to damp torsional vibration


Yes, harmonic dampers are often used on the crankshaft (although only with long cranks - most 4-cylinders don't use them), but not on suspension parts.

Trivia: The name would be *Lanchester* Damper, after Frederick W. Lanchester, but I've never heard one called that here in North America.


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## brian_ (Feb 7, 2017)

Another comment about engine noise: "sporty" cars now routinely have systems to increase the exhaust noise heard by the driver, just for the "sporty" effect. Engines just are not very loud anymore; at highway speeds, wind and road noise drown them out.



aeroscott said:


> The hypoid reduces harmonics and the tires absorb them.
> A good hypoid is very quiet.


Ah, so you were listing a hypoid gear as one of the elements _reducing_ noise, rather than as a noise generator. Still, the gear noise challenge of a Tesla is not much different from the gear noise challenge of an engine-driven car with no hypoid gears and an engine so quiet that it isn't noticeable most of the time.


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

Duncan said:


> You do realise that probably 40% of the cars on the road use a weight damper system?
> 
> It's called a Lancaster Damper - you will see one on the front of a lot of crankshafts being used to damp torsional vibration


 Of course , together with stick on wheel weights for balance also,.
But have you ever seen post-manufacture add on weights on suspension components ?...
Even that i can accept (not being aware of the details), but those zip ties are a indication of the lack of attention to detail and risk.


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## brian_ (Feb 7, 2017)

Karter2 said:


> Of course , together with stick on wheel weights for balance also...


That's a very different balance issue, unrelated to resonance issues.



Karter2 said:


> ... But have you ever seen post-manufacture add on weights on suspension components ?...
> Even that i can accept (not being aware of the details), but those zip ties are a indication of the lack of attention to detail and risk.


I agree that cable-tied weights on anything are ridiculous. Tesla has repeatedly shown a willingness to ship junk and call it back in for finishing; that would not be acceptable to any reputable manufacturer.


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

brian_ said:


> Tesla has repeatedly shown a willingness to ship junk and call it back in for finishing; that would not be acceptable to any reputable manufacturer.


That is only true if you consider that

Ford, Chrysler, GM, Subaru, Honda, Toyota, Mercedes, BMW, Porsche, and any number of others are not "reputable manufacturers"


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

Duncan ,say it's not true,They love us ,just watch the commercials "THE BEST OR NOTHING" and trust us.
well said Duncan


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## Kevin Sharpe (Jul 4, 2011)

Some interesting Model 3 images from a wrecked car in the latest EVTV video (start at 30:00);


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

Motortrend review of the Munro Associates Model 3 teardown, with comments and lots of photos.
Key comment...Munro doesent think tesla can make money at $36000 per car !
http://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-model-3-teardown-deconstructed-3/


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## Kevin Sharpe (Jul 4, 2011)

Karter2 said:


> Munro doesent think tesla can make money at $36000 per car !


I'm not surprised... Musk has never hit a target and doubt that will change while he remains in control of Tesla


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## brian_ (Feb 7, 2017)

Karter2 said:


> ...Munro doesent think tesla can make money at $36000 per car !


That's not surprising, and it is one reason that Tesla doesn't sell them for $36,000. Although the Tesla US website says "starting at only $35,000" (just as the Tesla Canada website says starting at CA$45,600), when you get into the configurator you can't actually buy that car. The current minimum is that base car plus a CA$11,900 (~US$9K) long-range battery and CA$6,600 (~US$5K) "premium package". You can't even see the real price until you pay the deposit. It's classic bait-and-switch. 

It appears that no one can sell their EVs at the price which consumers are willing to pay. Small-time businesses go broke, major automotive manufacturers lose money on them (and so are willing to sell only enough to meet regulatory requirements and establish a sufficiently "green" image), and Tesla just burns investors' cash.

_Road&Track_: The "$35,000 Tesla Model 3" Still Doesn't Exist


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## brian_ (Feb 7, 2017)

A couple other views of the Munro report:
_Motor Trend_: Tesla Model 3 Teardown: Deconstructed 3
_Jalopnik_: Tesla Model 3 Teardown By Engineering Firm Reveals Quality Flaws Like 'A Kia In The '90s'


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## Kevin Sharpe (Jul 4, 2011)

Outside the EV world things are not looking good for Tesla 

Months of bad news has battered Tesla’s image with customers, poll finds


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

I just got my first ride in a model 3 yesterday. No road noise no motor noise
fast and handled great.I didn't drive and it was only a mile or so.
When I drove the S the first time it was a P85D+ in insane mode Just after that model came out and then a P85D a year or so later. In both I could hear road noise and motor wine at all times. The motor sound sounded like a very quiet turbine sound and kind of neat. The road noise was the dominant sound.
Then a few weeks ago I drove a X. I don't remember ether road or motor noise.
The owner of the 3 was i love with it. said it was $50k and would have had to wait for one year for the $35k model and lose the $10k tax credit.


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

Karter2 said:


> Motortrend review of the Munro Associates Model 3 teardown, with comments and lots of photos.
> Key comment...Munro doesent think tesla can make money at $36000 per car !
> http://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-model-3-teardown-deconstructed-3/


He would have to have battery cost information to determine that . That would take getting into the battery plant and supply contracts.


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

aeroscott said:


> He would have to have battery cost information to determine that . That would take getting into the battery plant and supply contracts.


 For exact costing , yes.....but they do have some experienced battery experts on the payroll who can give good estimates.
Having said that, they did estimate the 21700 cell capacity a 6ah !!


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

But nobody has put together this large/ potentially efferent battery plant or been able to make huge direct buys of materials.


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

_some experienced battery experts
_
One of the things that I have noticed is that the mainstream "experts" all appear to be at least 7 years out of date on anything that is moving fast - batteries - solar power 

I keep reading reports about battery costs reaching $250/kWh by 2020
When Chevy were selling them for that in 2013

Solar power is the same - there is a big very expensive report just out - but their cost of residential solar is over twice what I paid 3 years ago - and New Zealand is an expensive place


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

aeroscott said:


> But nobody has put together this large/ potentially efferent battery plant or been able to make huge direct buys of materials.


Remember, the Gigafactory battery cell production is a Panasonic operation, and they have been doing it for a long time.
I suspect many people in the cell manufacturing game know exactly what is being done and have a very good idea of the detailed costs for cell production.
What is not certain is how efficient (or rather inefficient) the processes are in the GF as its been well reported that they have many issues which would directly affect the production costs.
However, i expect Munros comments would be based on a normal level of efficiency in production
Munro himself is a Robotics consultant and would be able to estimate the costs of assembly systems for pack itself.
I would not underestimate the ability of these guys to get very close to the bones on these figures.


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

Karter2 said:


> Remember, the Gigafactory battery cell production is a Panasonic operation, and they have been doing it for a long time.
> I suspect many people in the cell manufacturing game know exactly what is being done and have a very good idea of the detailed costs for cell production.
> What is not certain is how efficient (or rather inefficient) the processes are in the GF as its been well reported that they have many issues which would directly affect the production costs.
> However, i expect Munros comments would be based on a normal level of efficiency in production
> ...


Funny how all of these "experts" keep talking about costs that an old idiot like me can see are miles out of date


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

Duncan said:


> I keep reading reports about battery costs reaching $250/kWh by 2020
> When Chevy were selling them for that in 2013
> 
> Solar power is the same - there is a big very expensive report just out - but their cost of residential solar is over twice what I paid 3 years ago - and New Zealand is an expensive place


Selling price is rarely related to product cost....its market driven.

Residential Solar is a classic case, where what you pay is hugely influenced by local market subsidies and rebates. 
In Au we pay about half as much as folks in the USA pay for similar systems
An extreme example is the recent plan in S Australia for the govnmt to install rooftop solar for free as a "virtual power plant" !


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

Karter2 said:


> Selling price is rarely related to product cost....its market driven.
> 
> Residential Solar is a classic case, where what you pay is hugely influenced by local market subsidies and rebates.
> In Au we pay about half as much as folks in the USA pay for similar systems
> An extreme example is the recent plan in S Australia for the govnmt to install rooftop solar for free as a "virtual power plant" !


_Selling price is rarely related to product cost....its market driven._

TRUE - but product cost puts a FLOOR on that you can't make money selling at BELOW product cost - and the "Experts" are talking about "Costs" that are HIGHER than prices that I - as an individual in an isolated country can find 

_In Au we pay about half as much as folks in the USA pay for similar systems_

But I'm in NZ - and we have ZERO - nothing - zilch - as local market subsidies and rebates.

And I still paid a FRACTION of the expert version of "Lowest Cost


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

Karter2 said:


> Remember, the Gigafactory battery cell production is a Panasonic operation, and they have been doing it for a long time.
> I suspect many people in the cell manufacturing game know exactly what is being done and have a very good idea of the detailed costs for cell production.
> What is not certain is how efficient (or rather inefficient) the processes are in the GF as its been well reported that they have many issues which would directly affect the production costs.
> However, i expect Munros comments would be based on a normal level of efficiency in production
> ...


 Remember tv's and solar panels


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

aeroscott said:


> Remember tv's and solar panels


Why ?....are you hinting at the price trends ?


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## Kevin Sharpe (Jul 4, 2011)

Duncan said:


> Funny how all of these "experts" keep talking about costs that an old idiot like me can see are miles out of date


Clearly it's a dynamic situation but can you imagine the cost impact of using people to replace 'low cost' robots?


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## brian_ (Feb 7, 2017)

Kevin Sharpe said:


> Clearly it's a dynamic situation but can you imagine the cost impact of using people to replace 'low cost' robots?


You don't have to imagine it, because Tesla Motors is already doing it.
Tesla Doesn’t Burn Fuel, It Burns Cash

Their staff count is huge, using more employee time/cost per dollar of sales than any real profitable auto manufacturer, and that's a significant part of their unprofitability.



> While Musk’s vision for the future once called for extreme automation, the present day is all about manpower. Back in 2010, Tesla had just 899 employees. Today, the company has nearly 40,000 workers.





> Tesla’s employee roster more than tripled from 2014 to 2017, and revenue per employee stagnated. General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. each bring in about 2.5 times as much revenue per employee. And Tesla’s swollen employee total doesn’t even account for what Musk recently characterized as a “Russian nesting doll” of contractor and subcontractor companies engaged in production at Tesla.


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## brian_ (Feb 7, 2017)

Karter2 said:


> Selling price is rarely related to product cost....its market driven.


I would say that selling price is not only related to product cost, and that it is market-driven and affected by government actions. For example, people pay more for a Mercedes than for other brands of vehicle with similar production costs, due to clever marketing by Daimler. Another example is that governments in the U.S. force auto manufactures to either make EVs, or pay another company (such as Tesla Motors) to make them (by buying credits from Telsa).

The cost of producing a product is not irrelevant, it's just not the only factor.


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

My point was there is no "fixed" relationship between manufacturing cost and retail price ..IE cost +- "X%" = Retail.
Products can be deliberately sold to a customer below manufacturing cost, just to get production volume, (minimum capacity fill) ..allowing the same products to be produced and sold at a profit to other customers.
A manufacturer will always ensure his overall business is profitable, but that does not mean all his products are individually profitable.
Some products retail at many multiples of their manufacturing cost, simply because of the supply/demand situation


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## Kevin Sharpe (Jul 4, 2011)

Jim Chanos On Tesla’s ‘Stunning’ Accelerated Rate Of Executive Departures.


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## brian_ (Feb 7, 2017)

Karter2 said:


> My point was there is no "fixed" relationship between manufacturing cost and retail price ..IE cost +- "X%" = Retail


I agree - markup to retail from manufacturing cost varies widely, between product types and even between brands in one product.



Karter2 said:


> Products can be deliberately sold to a customer below manufacturing cost, just to get production volume, (minimum capacity fill) ..allowing the same products to be produced and sold at a profit to other customers


True, but of course not applicable to Tesla Motors, which has no excess capacity and a relatively consistent price for the product across markets.



Karter2 said:


> A manufacturer will always ensure his overall business is profitable, but that does not mean all his products are individually profitable.


True, but with a small range of products, all of which are in the category that every other auto manufacturer sells at a loss to allow them to continue to sell profitable product (a category in which Tesla Motors does not have a product), this isn't very applicable here either.


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

When production lines are being started costs can be uneconomic until the problems get reduced to a manageable level . It sounded to me like equipment manufactures didn't deliver as promised and they had to re-engineer to the point of buying the company.This could destroy the budget of a production line or worse.
I presume the purchase was because they had so much into the re-engineering and the offset for non delivery, it made more sense to buy them out.
And keep the intellectual property thus eliminating a vender source for the competition .


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

Just watched the clip , Doe's the tesla killers have battery experience , a charging infrastructure and $5 billion battery plant and more experience getting that plant up and running .Even though the plant is not producing as needed he has a huge head start on everyone else.


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

Two pages of executives who have left in 18 months 
So 40 people?

Call it 30 per year in a company that has a turnover of $12 Billion a year

I used to work for Cummins - a $20 Billion a year company

How may "Executives" were there at Cummins?

I don't know but it would be in the thousands!

If Musk is running a tighter ship he may only have 600 Executives - so 30/year is 5%
5% would mean that each one stayed in that job for 20 years 

That is simply NOT what happens - executives move - 5 years is a long time for these guys

If Musk is losing 30/year then he is "Losing Executives" at an incredibly low rate!

It's like he was being taken to task for all of the people who were set loose after a year - when you did the numbers it was 2% - which in a normal company is a low number and for a company expanding the way Tesla is was incredibly low


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

aeroscott said:


> Just watched the clip , Doe's the tesla killers have battery experience , a charging infrastructure and $5 billion battery plant and more experience getting that plant up and running .Even though the plant is not producing as needed he has a huge head start on everyone else.


Huge head start in what ??...
Nissan have several of their own battery plants and has been producing batteries and EVs for many years.
GM have the Bolt as a direct competitor , mostly built by LG who are also long time battery manufacturers, 
BMW, run their own battery plant for their EVs
Jaguar are in the same market , with Panasonic involvement
BYD in China are huge in EVs and battery manufacture

Tesla obviously do not have experience in mass production of cars, which all the others do have, and that is likely to be a very relavent factor.


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

brian_ said:


> True, but with a small range of products, all of which are in the category that every other auto manufacturer sells at a loss to allow them to continue to sell profitable product (a category in which Tesla Motors does not have a product), this isn't very applicable here either.


 Agreed brian, but the discussion had broadened to Solar panels, TVs, etc !

But actually Tesla do have the oportunity to sell cheap battery cells in their cars, whilst making profits on cells used for commercial grid storage systems?...
Car packs have been estimated at $100-$200 /kWh , whilst the Power Pack systems are reported (reliably) at $450 /kWh !


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

aeroscott said:


> Just watched the clip , Doe's the tesla killers have battery experience , a charging infrastructure and $5 billion battery plant and more experience getting that plant up and running .Even though the plant is not producing as needed he has a huge head start on everyone else.


The thing that is missing is that Tesla is NOT competing against these other manufacturers making EV's

Tesla is competing against all of the IC cars 

As EV's achieve price parity with IC cars more and more people will move to EV's
When they actually achieve price parity only the dinosaurs will buy dino burners - who would buy a car that is slower more complex and needs to be filled up? 

Tesla did that with the S and the X - they were directly competing with Mercedes and other top level cars - and they won

The Type 3 is doing the same - the Jaguar and Audi EV's are not so much competing against Tesla as against other IC cars

Musk believes that having more companies making EV's INCREASES the size of his market!
And I think he is correct - 
One weird new company making something different and a lot of people will say "If they are so good why is nobody else doing that" - is it a blind alley?

But when Chevy and Jaguar and Audi are all making EV's then it looks as if Tesla was correct and is leading the way


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

Nobody has been building at the scale of this plant. Sandy says this is the top battery in the world today.
I knew a teck that worked at the newme plant some 30 years ago ,problems kept him going non stop.


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## Kevin Sharpe (Jul 4, 2011)

Karter2 said:


> Tesla obviously do not have experience in mass production of cars, which all the others do have, and that is likely to be a very relavent factor.


The Model 3 is exposing Tesla's weakness and my hope is that Musk steps aside and we get a car person running the company (or we see a Tesla merger with a car company). It's no coincidence that Musk's recent renumeration package is designed so that he can step away from day to day operations at Tesla and I suspect his heart is really with SpaceX now.

I'm interested in affordable mass market EV's and Tesla's inability to deliver hurts us all. Tesla's technology is great but their execution is shit and getting shittier


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

Kevin Sharpe said:


> The Model 3 is exposing Tesla's weakness and my hope is that Musk steps aside and we get a car person running the company (or we see a Tesla merger with a car company). It's no coincidence that Musk's recent renumeration package is designed so that he can step away from day to day operations at Tesla and I suspect his heart is really with SpaceX now.
> 
> I'm interested in affordable mass market EV's and Tesla's inability to deliver hurts us all. Tesla's technology is great but their execution is shit and getting shittier


Take a couple of steps back
Now look at Musk's record as a "Car Person"

There is NOBODY still alive who has managed anything close to what he has managed - his older cars are making record margins and he can sell as many as he can make

His new car is ramping up production - has a huge order book and he believes that it will make money

Where is this "Car Person" who has done 10% of that?

The people who currently lead the big car companies? - the ones that have backstabbed their way to the top without actually doing anything??

You know what it takes to get promoted in a big company - hint it's NOT competence

So who is it that can do better? - And why have they not already "done better"

Musk has done
PayPal, Tesla, SpaceX - any one of those would put him in the top 0.0001% 

He also appears to have the ability to hire good people and to help them to operate


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## Kevin Sharpe (Jul 4, 2011)

Duncan said:


> He also appears to have the ability to hire good people and to help them to operate


It's worth reading some of the lawsuits against Tesla from former employees... start here with the Tesla selling 'lemons' lawsuit;

https://www.scribd.com/document/372065507/Willams-vs-Tesla

Also be aware that we have no idea how many lawsuits are being 'hushed';

Tesla emails show automaker offered cash to quiet discrimination suit


What I think is interesting about Jim Chanos comments is the accelerated rate of *executive* departures and the claim that Tesla knew the Model 3 could not be built for $35K


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

We would need a lot more information on departures To get a solid idea of what it means,Anything coming from a Tesla short position holder is a conflict of interest suspect.
Great find on the lawsuits,man that's a lot of work digging threw all the filing
to get a idea of what's going on.
On Sandy's saying they can't make money at $35k ,was he not putting a very high price /KW as an assumption of battery cost. He didn't take the factory apart nor did anyone build batteries at this scale . If you notice when he talks about battery cost he gets assumptive and general about costs unlike his very detailed Analysis of the car. And we must remember he is a industrial spy and could possibly be misleading us .


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## Kevin Sharpe (Jul 4, 2011)

aeroscott said:


> Great find on the lawsuits,man that's a lot of work digging threw all the filing to get a idea of what's going on.


A two minute google search will turn up plenty of Tesla lawsuits... I monitor this area closer than some because I hold Tesla stock and am genuinely concerned that some of these issues will hurt me financially. 



aeroscott said:


> On Sandy's saying they can't make money at $35k


It's not just Sandy saying that but also former Tesla employees referenced in one of the lawsuits I believe... I'll try and track that down.



aeroscott said:


> we must remember he is a industrial spy and could possibly be misleading us


I'd recommend you read one of the Munro's reports... they are exceptional and very well researched... remember these people are paid for the quality of their work and they make a lot $.

I can also recommend the Tesla Model S report by Total Battery Consulting if you're interested in 'industrial espionage'**

**I'm assuming your definition of spy includes those of us working to reverse engineer OEM parts?


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

Here is my take on the Tesla Lawsuits

There are a lot of people who have managed to get good reputations for doing things as a result of the old "Blow your own Trumpet"

When that type of person actually end up working for somebody who know what he is doing - a rare bird in senior management - then his/her actual performance is disappointing and the Boss says so

I suspect that Tesla has flushed out a lot of these chancers

On the same page with the "Munro" caper - just because he has managed to get people to pay good money for his reports and he is high profile does NOT mean he is any good

In my experience well over half of "Management Consultants" do more damage than good

I haven't got any Tesla stock - but I will put $100 down with Kevin that Tesla weather this storm and are producing 6000 type 3 a week with good order books at the end of 2018
Which is 6 months after Musk's date! - I would bet on Musk achieving his goals - but not on his time-frames 

Kevin - do you accept?


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

Duncan said:


> I haven't got any Tesla stock - but I will put $100 down with Kevin that Tesla weather this storm and are producing 6000 type 3 a week with good order books at the end of 2018
> Which is 6 months after Musk's date! - I would bet on Musk achieving his goals - but not on his time-frames
> ?


 6 months after Musks date ??
Which one would that be?. He has set several "revised " targets.
Initially he stated they would produce 200,000 M3 s by the end of 2017 after first deliveries in July that year....which would have required an Average of 10,000 per week during the last 5 months of 2017 !
Later he revised that target to just 20,000 in Dec '17...(5000 per week)
And of course has further revised targets a few times until we hear of the most recent ( but probably not the last ). target of 6000/week by end of June '18.
Musk is "all in". on this , (financially, reputation, future,) ..so he (or someone) will have to make it work to some degree, at whatever cost.
But his "goal" for 10,000/week is just a distant dream.


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## brian_ (Feb 7, 2017)

Duncan said:


> Take a couple of steps back
> Now look at Musk's record as a "Car Person"
> 
> There is NOBODY still alive who has managed anything close to what he has managed - his older cars are making record margins and he can sell as many as he can make


This can also be stated as "the company has never made a profit, is not likely to make a profit at any time in the future, and can't produce at anywhere near the planned rate.



Duncan said:


> His new car is ramping up production - has a huge order book and he believes that it will make money


Also known as production the new car is still struggling, there is no chance of meeting orders in the current model year (or the next one), and the CEO doesn't even know what it costs him to make a car so he states his "belief".



Duncan said:


> Where is this "Car Person" who has done 10% of that?Musk has done


Every current automotive executive runs a more successful manufacturing operation than Musk; they make money.



Duncan said:


> PayPal, Tesla, SpaceX - any one of those would put him in the top 0.0001%


One success, one startup still burning money, and one to be determined (but promising).



Duncan said:


> He also appears to have the ability to hire good people and to help them to operate


Help them to operate? In a company which by any measure of quality or efficiency of operation is substandard?


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

Brian
You usually show some understanding of the subject that you post about

However on this one you are showing total ignorance - have you ever actually seen a car manufacturer? or done any financial calculations?

From your comments I almost asked if you had actually seen a motor car


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## brian_ (Feb 7, 2017)

Duncan said:


> Brian
> You usually show some understanding of the subject that you post about
> 
> However on this one you are showing total ignorance - have you ever actually seen a car manufacturer? or done any financial calculations?


"Seen a car manufacturer"? Yes, I've done the usual public tours of assembly plants, although that's not terribly helpful in understanding the economics of the industry, which I have been following for many years (including the interesting history of the Freemont plant which Tesla Motors now has). The financial calculations for Tesla are readily available, and examples have been linked in these discussions. Perhaps most authoritatively, Elon Musk himself wrote:


> A fair criticism leveled at Tesla by outside critics is that you’re not a real company unless you generate a profit, meaning simply that revenue exceeds costs. It didn’t make sense to do that until reaching economies of scale, but now we are there.
> 
> Going forward, we will be far more rigorous about expenditures. I have asked the Tesla finance team to comb through every expense worldwide, no matter how small, and cut everything that doesn’t have a strong value justification.


So according to Elon, Tesla has never been profitable, and has not even really tried so far.



Duncan said:


> From your comments I almost asked if you had actually seen a motor car


I don't know what about my comments about the inability of Tesla Motors to operate effectively or profitably is related to seeing a motor car, but I have been driving for decades, including some competition and doing most of my own servicing including preparation of the race car.


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

Having put in a couple of decades at Automotive manufacturing I will add a couple of things

Tesla has been going for 15 years

Cummins - took 25 years before it turned a profit
Amazon - took 17 years before it consistently tuned a profit - and a lot longer before it covered it's losses 

Ford - has made a loss for about 9 out of the last 20 years
Chrysler 
GM - went bust and was rescued by the Government 

Tesla is making a decent percentage on each car - and that will only go up


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## Kevin Sharpe (Jul 4, 2011)

Germany's Electric Cars Are Coming for Elon Musk and Tesla

"Elon Musk started Tesla Inc. with a goal of accelerating the switch to electric cars by about a decade.

That wish is now catching up with him. Starting with Jaguar’s I-Pace crossover and later this year Audi’s Q6 e-tron, virtually every major carmaker is rolling out stylish, sporty electric vehicles in the mold of his Models S, X and 3. Unlike Tesla, they have roughly a century of experience launching models every few months and can spread development costs across a broad portfolio."


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## Kevin Sharpe (Jul 4, 2011)

I recommend all the Tesla fanboys watch the Jaguar I-Pace review by Bjørn Nyland


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## Kevin Sharpe (Jul 4, 2011)

Great video asking some serious questions - Just What Happened On Tesla's Q1 Earnings Call?


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## brian_ (Feb 7, 2017)

Another take on this event...

_BUSINESS NEWS: MAY 3, 2018 / 7:04 AM / UPDATED 18 HOURS AGO_
*Tesla shares, bonds drop as CEO Musk bites hand of Wall Street*


> Eric Schiffer, head of the Patriarch Organization, a Los Angeles-based private equity firm, called it “the single greatest CEO meltdown in American car history.”


So Elon is bored with trying to actually earn money, and just wants to play. Not really news, but more clearly apparent than ever before.


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

brian_ said:


> Another take on this event...
> 
> So Elon is bored with trying to actually earn money, and just wants to play. Not really news, but more clearly apparent than ever before.



Nope - wrong again

Elon want to concentrate on actually making money and let the zero sum gamblers of the stock exchange go and play with themselves

We really really NEED a "Tobin Tax"


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

Duncan said:


> Elon want to concentrate on actually making money and let the zero sum gamblers of the stock exchange go and play with themselves....."


 If that was his intention, it backfired .....and ended up wiping $300m off his value.
Maybe he is not the infallable business brain some think he is ?


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

Karter2 said:


> If that was his intention, it backfired .....and ended up wiping $300m off his value.
> Maybe he is not the infallable business brain some think he is ?


Nah - nobody took $300M off him - he is still worth exactly what he was before

This is what is wrong with "the stock market" - apart from it's essential function of funding start-ups and capital improvements 98% of stock movements are no more than a zero sum casino

As far as a company is concerned the stock value is only of interest if you are trying to borrow money - otherwise it's just funny numbers

Tesla stock dropped - that's only important if you are planning to buy or sell


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## Kevin Sharpe (Jul 4, 2011)

brian_ said:


> So Elon is bored with trying to actually earn money, and just wants to play. Not really news, but more clearly apparent than ever before.


I hope Musk moves to SpaceX before he takes Tesla down... we need a CEO who can deliver affordable EVs in volume if we're going to survive.


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## brian_ (Feb 7, 2017)

Kevin Sharpe said:


> I hope Musk moves to SpaceX before he takes Tesla down... we need a CEO who can deliver affordable EVs in volume if we're going to survive.


SpaceX has already landed tail-sitting rockets, and delivered payloads to space. I'm not sure there's much left there to amuse Musk. 

I'm not sure that there is much need for Tesla Motors to survive (unless of course you're a shareholder, but some forum members insist that stocks are not real and so are unimportant): the market for expensive EVs has been established and other companies are moving into it (starting with Jaguar), Tesla doesn't stand out as particularly useful in the moderately-priced EV market, and any heavy truck manufacturer can handle the market for the Tesla "Semi".


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## electro wrks (Mar 5, 2012)

You guys are way overthinking this. Musk's position is best summed up in a note I heard was left in the glove-box of the Roadster sent on its way to Mars:

"Be home soon. First, have to save this planet from some of its stupid people. Jeez...what a bunch of dumbasses."


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## brian_ (Feb 7, 2017)

electro wrks said:


> You guys are way overthinking this. Musk's position is best summed up in a note I heard was left in the glove-box of the Roadster sent on its way to Mars:
> 
> "Be home soon. First, have to save this planet from some of its stupid people. Jeez...what a bunch of dumbasses."


Since the Roadster appears to be on a path to miss Mars by 4.3 million miles, who is the dumbass?


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## electro wrks (Mar 5, 2012)

Hey, the guy's not perfect. In the vastness of space, 4.3 million miles is not bad!


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

brian_ said:


> Since the Roadster appears to be on a path to miss Mars by 4.3 million miles, who is the dumbass?


Who said he was from Mars?


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## Kevin Sharpe (Jul 4, 2011)

brian_ said:


> SpaceX has already landed tail-sitting rockets, and delivered payloads to space. I'm not sure there's much left there to amuse Musk.


I think he really wants to see Starlink deployed and that would change our society for ever 



brian_ said:


> I'm not sure that there is much need for Tesla Motors to survive (unless of course you're a shareholder, but some forum members insist that stocks are not real and so are unimportant): the market for expensive EVs has been established and other companies are moving into it (starting with Jaguar), Tesla doesn't stand out as particularly useful in the moderately-priced EV market, and any heavy truck manufacturer can handle the market for the Tesla "Semi".


As a long term share holder I obviously want Tesla to survive but agree they are not *needed* for the 'green' transition to continue. I think Tesla have some useful assets (Supercharger real-estate for example) but the established car and truck companies have woken up and will deliver products of higher quality and lower price 

We also have competition from China to consider... Beijing Motor Show


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## brian_ (Feb 7, 2017)

electro wrks said:


> Hey, the guy's not perfect. In the vastness of space, 4.3 million miles is not bad!


Seriously, for a chunk of stuff launched without any further guidance that really isn't bad.  But anyone who dismisses anyone who doesn't agree with him as "a bunch of dumbasses" needs to be reminded of his own huge shortcomings.


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## electro wrks (Mar 5, 2012)

Duncan said:


> Who said he was from Mars?


It's a joke Duncan. Just work with it. 

The Martian days are 35-40 minutes longer than those on Earth. So more work can get done per day. This might partially explain why Musk is consistently under estimating production deadlines.

Musk's obsession with tunneling? The Martians must live and work underground. How else could they have avoided detection, so far, from Earth's scratching and probing on the surface of their planet?

What's not a joke is what Kevin and others are referring to about the potential Chinese dominance of the EV market. I'm old enough to remember the Japanese takeover of the vehicle markets in the '70s and '80s. This is while Detroit and other vehicle makers were, for the most part, firmly in denial about their degrading market situation. And, they paid the price for it. If we don't have more people like Musk leading the way, the vehicle markets could do the same thing with the Chinese EVs.

Plus, you have to admit it's exciting to watch!


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

GM will just import them and call them Chevy like the bolt and volt.
In 1972 I worked on the frame lines .I could not take pictures but the Japanese were invited to to take all the pictures they wanted .
GM is China's biggest car producer, according the NBC News a few years ago.


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## brian_ (Feb 7, 2017)

aeroscott said:


> GM will just import them and call them Chevy like the bolt and volt.


You realize that the Bolt and Volt (and related vehicles) are built for all markets by GM in the U.S. (two different plants in Michigan) alongside related gasoline-engined models, right?

GM could, of course, shift production of these models to China; that's the current trend... a trend unrelated to EVs or any technology. If the battery cells were made in China, and China is a particularly good market for the vehicles, it would make especially good economic sense to build the whole vehicle there; however, the cells come from LG Chem in South Korea and production is shifting to Michigan.

Tesla Motors, too, could shift to another country for vehicle assembly. It might even improve quality, if they simply contract out the entire job, rather than their current approach of being the system integrator of technology and equipment which comes entirely from suppliers. There's no shame in doing that; successful auto manufacturers often contract out production of specialty models.


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## brian_ (Feb 7, 2017)

electro wrks said:


> The Martian days are 35-40 minutes longer than those on Earth. So more work can get done per day. This might partially explain why Musk is consistently under estimating production deadlines.
> 
> Musk's obsession with tunneling? The Martians must live and work underground. How else could they have avoided detection, so far, from Earth's scratching and probing on the surface of their planet?



Well done!


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

brian_ said:


> You realize that the Bolt and Volt (and related vehicles) are built for all markets by GM in the U.S. (two different plants in Michigan) alongside related gasoline-engined models, right?
> 
> GM could, of course, shift production of these models to China; that's the current trend... a trend unrelated to EVs or any technology. If the battery cells were made in China, and China is a particularly good market for the vehicles, it would make especially good economic sense to build the whole vehicle there; however, the cells come from LG Chem in South Korea and production is shifting to Michigan.
> 
> Tesla Motors, too, could shift to another country for vehicle assembly. It might even improve quality, if they simply contract out the entire job, rather than their current approach of being the system integrator of technology and equipment which comes entirely from suppliers. There's no shame in doing that; successful auto manufacturers often contract out production of specialty models.



The sheet metal is sourced from China or threw another country leading back to China,LG makes the battery,motor ,electronics on the bolt . Sandy says the bolt EV system is LG .The volt has LG battery and some US parts. GM relays (15 years ago) were Denso,Japan.


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## Karter2 (Nov 17, 2011)

Musk gets far more credit than he is due.
He is a "chancer" a "risk taker" who has big ideas for making money, an abundant share of luck, and now a blind faith fan following.
Tesla was not his idea, he bought into the company, and applied "big thinking" to it because he could see the financial potential in the carbon offset funds that would be available.
Full credit to him for putting Tesla where it is now....
...but also for where it may go in the future !!


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## aeroscott (Jan 5, 2008)

The Musk takeover of Tesla is not a nice story.


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## Duncan (Dec 8, 2008)

aeroscott said:


> The Musk takeover of Tesla is not a nice story.


But probably essential if Tesla was going to succeed


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## Kevin Sharpe (Jul 4, 2011)

brian_ said:


> Tesla Motors, too, could shift to another country for vehicle assembly.


According to Musk this is already happening...

Tesla Will Reveal the Locations for Two New Factories in 2018


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## Kevin Sharpe (Jul 4, 2011)

Tesla CEO Musk Says Company Is ‘Flattening Management Structure’ in Reorganization - move follows engineering chief taking a leave of absence and the departure of another senior executive;

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-...agement-structure-inreorganization-1526308678


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## Kevin Sharpe (Jul 4, 2011)

Some horrific online abuse by Musk 'fanboys' over the last few days... recommended read for all;

What It’s Like When Elon Musk’s Twitter Mob Comes After You


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