# Solar PV To Achieve Grid Parity in 2014



## EVDL Archive (Jul 26, 2007)

R. P. Siegel reports that solar power has now surpassed the 100 GW threshold and is good to go, in many places, without subsidies.

More...


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## Sunking (Aug 10, 2009)

What a BS propaganda PR story. Only reason PV panels are so inexpensive today is because the market is flooded with product (as a result of government subsidies), and manufactures are selling PV panels way below manufacturing cost.

Most PV manufactures will file bankruptcy as soon as they can liquidate inventory to cash out before filing bankruptcy if they can hold off Creditors and Bond Holders until that time before they can lay claim to the inventory. 

One of the industries largest manufactures and Golden Child Suntech Power NYSE STP) got caught holding the bag and bit the dust last Friday when they missed a $541 million dollar bond payment. In 2008 just before the solar bubble market went bust STP stock was worth $50 share. Last Thursday before it was announced they missed a bond payment was worth $1.20. Today it is worthless @ $0.55 and heading to ZERO.

Once inventories are liquidated and most manufactures go out of biz, the survivors will have to increase panel prices up to 400% to get back into a slim profit margin. By that time government subsidies will be gone, and no more solar.


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## Ziggythewiz (May 16, 2010)

Okay Obama. I suppose that glut of product explains the fairly steady decline in cost/watt over the last 6 years while taking the product from 3% eff to 20%.

The only thing holding back PV growth is falling energy prices that don't allow the payback period to fall nearly as quickly as the price/watt has.


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## Sunking (Aug 10, 2009)

Ziggythewiz said:


> I suppose that glut of product explains the fairly steady decline in cost/watt over the last 6 years while taking the product from 3% eff to 20%.


15 to 20 % panel efficiency is nothing new in the last few years. 

3% would be thin film which is never recommended to use because they only have a 5 year life span. When the glut of inventory is cleared. Panel prices will have to go up 300 to 500% thus never achieving parity in most of the USA. Only two states I can think of in the USA that might achive parity is Hawaii and California, but that is only because of their extremely high electric rates. California could fix their high electric rates if they gave up solar and started building power plants. As of now they import 30% of their power from neighboring states. 

Been working with solar for 10 years now, I know the biz, it is BUST. It was good from 2003 to 2008. Made a killing off tax and utility rate payers money.


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## Ziggythewiz (May 16, 2010)

6 years ago standard silicon panels available for $4-5/watt were 3-6% efficient.

15-20% may have been around for a while, but they've only been under $1/watt for the last couple years.

So you're saying the business was great when prices were > $4/watt, but now that they're so low it's not as profitable. Thanks for the insight Solyndra.

A market glut doesn't happen for a continuous period of years with new models becoming available. That's called manufacturing and progress.

You should really change your name to SunHater.


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## Sunking (Aug 10, 2009)

Ziggythewiz said:


> 6 years ago standard silicon panels available for $4-5/watt were 3-6% efficient.
> 
> 15-20% may have been around for a while, but they've only been under $1/watt for the last couple years.


Mono panels are the most efficient and are the first generation some 50 years ago. Prices have only crashed because there is way too much product on the market. When th edust settles panels will go back up to the $3-$5/watt price. The $1.50 to $2.00/watt price you see now is well below manufacturing cost. 

I am a professional and have no vested interest in solar. I sold out my renewable energy stocks in 2008 before the crash and burn. I desigh a ,any off-grid systems for cellular Telephone, pipe line telemetry, and a few commercial grid tied system most notable a 500 Kw system for Walmart in Plano TX which cost them Zero $ when said and done. Tax payers and utility rate payers paid for every dime of Walmart systems. Walmart gets to claim they are green in PR, and saves them roughly $800/day in electric cost which they pocket at your expense. 

Like I said I am a professional, not an advocate, which means I tell it like it is. I know you nmay not like it, but check all the panel manufactures stock prices since 2008. All have crashed and lost over 90% of their value. All are deeply in debt. Many of the giants have fallen. For example EverGreen Solar a US manufacture no longer exist. Go look and see what happened to the largest First Solar FSLR.


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## Ziggythewiz (May 16, 2010)

Sunking said:


> The $1.50 to $2.00/watt price you see now is well below manufacturing cost.


Then I guess they've been successfully selling at a loss for 3-4 years.

Now it's down to $0.67

http://www.ecobusinesslinks.com/surveys/free-solar-panel-price-survey/




Sunking said:


> most notable a 500 Kw system for Walmart in Plano TX which cost them Zero $ when said and done. Tax payers and utility rate payers paid for every dime of Walmart systems. Walmart gets to claim they are green in PR, and saves them roughly $800/day in electric cost which they pocket at your expense.


How do you save $800/day on $250 (being generous) worth of electricity?


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## Sunking (Aug 10, 2009)

Ziggythewiz said:


> Then I guess they've been successfully selling at a loss for 3-4 years.
> 
> Now it's down to $0.67


Wrong it is worth ZERO. STP filled Bankruptcy at COB today

I am thrilled STP went bankrupt and got caught holding the bag. What you and others do not realize is going on is all the manufactures have stopped production. The laborers are laid-off till further notice. The manufactures are desperately trying to liquidate stock to cash out and pay the executives off before their bonds come due for payment leaving the creditors and bond holders holding the empty bag of worthless paper. STP got their notes defaulted before they could liquidate. Now the Bond holders have assets they can liquidate and at least get something instead of nothing. Unfortunately it does not make the stock holders any difference because they get NOTHING either way. Bond Holders get paid off first. If there is anything left after the Bond Holders get paid in full with interest, and there never is, the share holders get whatever is left. Share holders are the last to get paid. They get screwed either way. 

At least this way the company executive board got busted before they fully robbed the piggy bank. That is exactly what Solyndra and all other RE companies are doing. The bubble has broke and they are looking for the exits. There is a whole list of RE companies folding. Many more to come. 

Once the inventories are cleared out. Panel prices will go up, way up. When that happens, that is the end of the retail market. Only companies like Sanyo, Kyocera, and GE will be making panels because they can absorb the losses for now as RE is a minute fraction of their over all biz. Once the glut of manufactures are gone, production can start again and this time for a profit for what little sales they generate.


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## PhantomPholly (Aug 20, 2008)

There will certainly be a market adjustment, but I suspect prices will hold fairly steady per Kw because of new advances.


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