# Raser Stock Drops



## Guest (Jul 24, 2009)

Risky but I do hope it bounces back for you. 

Pete


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## JRP3 (Mar 7, 2008)

PhantomPholly said:


> The key feature of Raser's motors/generators is that they require no rare earth magnets to be over 90% efficient. This will be important once EVs become mainstream, as the few countries exporting rare earths will want to cash in big time just like the oil countries are today.


Not sure how important this will be since AC induction motors don't use PM's at all.


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## unclematt (May 11, 2008)

I was heavily invested in Raser over 5 years ago. They failed me when they decided NOT to manufacture a product for sale, and instead thought it wise to license their technology out to the highest bidder. Thing is, NO ONE WANTED IT. After losing many thousands, I realized what a dead end this strategy was. Same goes for Chorus motors, who decided Raser was such a smashing success with their failed strategy they decided to emulate it.

If these motor companies are too chicken shit (forgive my french) to actually produce motors for purchase by both the public and companies, they will most likely fail, or take decades to turn a profit. It has been shown over and over.


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## PhantomPholly (Aug 20, 2008)

unclematt said:


> I was heavily invested in Raser over 5 years ago. They failed me when they decided NOT to manufacture a product for sale, and instead thought it wise to license their technology out to the highest bidder. Thing is, NO ONE WANTED IT. After losing many thousands, I realized what a dead end this strategy was. Same goes for Chorus motors, who decided Raser was such a smashing success with their failed strategy they decided to emulate it.
> 
> If these motor companies are too chicken shit (forgive my french) to actually produce motors for purchase by both the public and companies, they will most likely fail, or take decades to turn a profit. It has been shown over and over.


Having been in that business situation before (a licenseable technology, lease or build?) I understand why they would choose that strategy. If your core competency is in research, suddenly choosing to become a manufacturing company is about 90% likely to result in disaster.

It seems their core competency is in geothermal plants, and that the motors were a side-effect of seeking better alternators. Like I said before, my reason for investing was that I liked their overall focus; but I'm not counting on them to be a stellar performer. 

Their stock recently dipped, but the reason is sound - they received a large infusion of cash in exchange for an additional issuance of new stock (diluting the old stock). They have been getting closer to cash neutral, and if they can exceed that they will survive and grow.


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## major (Apr 4, 2008)

PhantomPholly said:


> It seems their core competency is in geothermal plants, and that the motors were a side-effect of seeking better alternators.


Hi Phant,

I've been watching Raser pretty much from their start. Even had some dealings with them. They started out with motor technology. The geothermal came at least several years later. At least that is what I saw.

Regards,

major


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## unclematt (May 11, 2008)

major said:


> Hi Phant,
> 
> I've been watching Raser pretty much from their start. Even had some dealings with them. They started out with motor technology. The geothermal came at least several years later. At least that is what I saw.
> 
> ...


I agree Major, when I invested with them the geothermal thing was the sideshow. Simple fact is that somewhere along the line motor developers got the idea they could take shortcuts and still be a success. Some don't even release any independent testing of their motors and just expect people to take their word for their claims. You can have the greatest idea for motor technology in the world and still fail miserably if you think you can get away with NOT producing that data, let alone actual motors for sale to the public and companies. Build it and they will come. Sit on your ass and wait for the world to beat a path to your door and you will turn to dust waiting for that to happen.


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## unclematt (May 11, 2008)

PhantomPholly said:


> Having been in that business situation before (a licenseable technology, lease or build?) I understand why they would choose that strategy. If your core competency is in research, suddenly choosing to become a manufacturing company is about 90% likely to result in disaster.
> 
> It seems their core competency is in geothermal plants, and that the motors were a side-effect of seeking better alternators. Like I said before, my reason for investing was that I liked their overall focus; but I'm not counting on them to be a stellar performer.
> 
> Their stock recently dipped, but the reason is sound - they received a large infusion of cash in exchange for an additional issuance of new stock (diluting the old stock). They have been getting closer to cash neutral, and if they can exceed that they will survive and grow.


I disagree. If you can't take your idea to the market yourself, you can always hire someone to do that for you. But they want US to take the risks and not themselves, so they don't put out the effort or investment funds to get the job done. Manufacturing facilities are available in many countries, you just have to take care of business and do the work.


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## PhantomPholly (Aug 20, 2008)

Good info guys - I came in later and presumed (since the geothermal was what covers the home page) what their "core business" was.

unclematt, arguments can be made either way on whether they should have pursued construction. Gearing up for production when you will immediately come head-to-head with the likes of G.E. is a RISKY proposition, especially if you are cash-limited. As we have learned from Microsoft, the best product does not always win in the market (presuming that their product even IS better, which as you pointed out is not certain).

It's easy for us to second-guess their strategy - all I was saying is that I understand reasons for choosing either path. Not knowing what they know, I honestly don't know if I would have made the same decisions. All I know for certain is that if you and I were running things it would have been different...


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## unclematt (May 11, 2008)

PhantomPholly said:


> Good info guys - I came in later and presumed (since the geothermal was what covers the home page) what their "core business" was.
> 
> unclematt, arguments can be made either way on whether they should have pursued construction. Gearing up for production when you will immediately come head-to-head with the likes of G.E. is a RISKY proposition, especially if you are cash-limited. As we have learned from Microsoft, the best product does not always win in the market (presuming that their product even IS better, which as you pointed out is not certain).
> 
> It's easy for us to second-guess their strategy - all I was saying is that I understand reasons for choosing either path. Not knowing what they know, I honestly don't know if I would have made the same decisions. All I know for certain is that if you and I were running things it would have been different...


I agree that we would probably do a better job. But I question how much "gearing up for production" would have to occur. There are factories sitting idle in China right now that could easily produce most electric motors.
Here is how it goes in a generalized way: create design parameters that involve your improvements and design elements. Submit this to the manufacturers in China (or to whomever you want to produce teh motors) and get a quote for various levels of volume of production. From this manufacturing estimate you then determine what your final wholesale and retail price would be. WOW, that sure was difficult! (rolls eyes)


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## unclematt (May 11, 2008)

And before I get a bunch of responses saying this is simplistic, of course this is a generalized statement on my part. You also have to get some investment funds if you don't have it already, but how hard is that these days? Not very! Open a website, show your technology and explain the benefits, and ask for investment funding. Before that, though, you will need to have a prototype motor that actually demonstrates that your claims ARE TRUE! Test the motor, hopefully independently, and release the info on your web site to encourage investors to pony up the money. This could be handled by any number of universities with engineering grad students that are just waiting for things like this to write their PhD on.

Notice how Raser and Chorus motors, not to mention PML flightlink, have the website and investor thing in hand, BUT ZERO FOLLOW THROUGH WHEN IT COMES TO PRODUCTION.


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## unclematt (May 11, 2008)

I would like to extend an invitation to industry representatives from Raser, Chrous motor, and any other motor developers, to come to this forum and defend their business models. When their stocks are decreasing in value, especially from the levels they were initally at, I encourage them to show me the error of my ways and show how their business model is doing anything positive for their shareholders OR PROSPECTIVE customers ON A REASONABLE TIME FRAME. Maybe I am simply wrong about my conclusions I have voiced in this thread, so here is a chance for them to come and educate us all about just how wrong I may be. You have the floor genetlemen:


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## JRP3 (Mar 7, 2008)

Expect to hear the sounds of silence.


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## unclematt (May 11, 2008)

JRP3 said:


> Expect to hear the sounds of silence.


Of course that is what I expect, but I honestly hope to be proved wrong. Reality is, a company can't respond to every challenge on every blog. My challenge means nothing to them, if they ever even know it exists.


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